Monday July 04, 2022 VOLUME 6 ISSUE 20
Is Anybody Reading this Newsletter? I intentionally introduce errors and misspellings to see if anyone is paying attention. See how many you can find, and let me know.
Don't forget to sign up for the Upcoming "EasyLanguage Forum". Starts next Tuesday. Where Sam Tennis and I will be covering EasyLanguage from Beginners to Intermediate. It will be intense and lots of fun. We do have a few more spots remaining. You will only have access to the Recordings & Slides if you are Registered.
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Samuel K. Tennis is world-renowned as "Mr. EasyLanguage" as he was the lead programmer, designer and programmer of EasyLanguage when he was working for Omega Research, which changed its name to TradeStation in 2001.
Sunny J. Harris has been a professional trader since 1981 and author of "TradeStation Made Easy!" She began using TradeStation & EasyLanguage (at the time "System Writer") since 1987 and has been a TradeStation Beta Tester ever since.
Sunny and Sam have been friends for more than 30 years and are partners in writing our upcoming "EasyLanguage Object-Oriented Programming Made Easy!"
I have added two new pages to MoneyMentor in the Reference Section: Diagramming Sentences & Parts of Speech, and Taxes. Take a Look.
Some of you asked that I notify you when I buy back in to TSLA. LAST WEEK I SAID: TSLA has given several bullish signals on SunnyBands and DMA_H since its first recent one on 5/13/22. If it goes up on Tuesday and breaks the DMA MidLine I'll be a buyer. It did not make it above the DMA MidLIne on a blue candle last week so I waited. I'm still waiting. It has gone down the last 4 days.
If you haven't yet had a chance, please take a look at my Podcast: "The Sunny Harris Show! with Sam Tennis". It's FREE. Listen while you Trade.
The most recent Episode is an enlightening visit with Adrienne Toghraie, Trader's Coach! Past episodes include: Glenn Neely (Elliott Wave Expert: neowave.com), Perry Kaufman (prolific author and master trader: kaufmansignals.com), and technical Rock Star Tim Slater. Upcoming espisodes include Michael Filighera (Elliott Wave master & Trader: tradershelpingtraders.com), David Kosmider (timingresearch.com) and Wally Olopade of RightSide Trading. I listen to Podcasts while I trade! You don't have to just sit there and listen.
Don't miss these Podcasts! These have been delightful and enlightening interviews into the lives of famous traders and their take on the markets.
This coming week we have several important reports coming out that will likely affect the markets. We have some important stocks reporting earnings: NFLX and more. In addition, Reports next week are Factory Orders, FOMC William Speaks, PMI, FOMC Minutes, Non-Farm Employment, Unemployment, Trade Balance and more.
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VantagePoint ai Prediction for Tomorrow
VP clearly projects the anticipated direction and magniture of tomorrow’s market. You can use any symbol; I trade the EMini S&P. My read of this clearly the market is poised for further move sideways. The 3 MAVs are in conflict with the long-term above the zero-line, the short-term below the zero-line but turning up and the medium-term above the line but turning down. To me this speaks to more congestive sideways action coming tomorrow.
The VP projection for tomorrow is for a high of 31,204 and a low of 30,722. Friday's close was 31,097 with a low of 30,487 and a high of 31,139. The prediction for Tuesday calls for a slightly higher high and a higher low. Week before last was up and this past week was downward action. Wonder what this next week will bring.
SunnyBands Implications
Dow Jones
The stats for the Dow are:
Last Close = +31,097.26 : the close Friday was at +31,097.26. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+31,500.68) = -403.42 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +32,626.65 UIB = +32,151.56 MidLine = +31,342.91 MidAngle = -85.43 LIB = +30,534.26 LOB = +30,059.17 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 31365.00 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 32150.73 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 34297.11 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green
This tells us that the market was down 403 points from last Friday's close , purple is still on top and price is below the MidLine.
The DMA_H turned Green on 6/21/22 signaling a Long position. BUT, price is not confirming that signal any longer since it touched the DMA MidLine on Monday. Touching a Flat MidLine is almost always a reversal signal in my book. The place to take profits when Purple is on top, the DMA MidLine is Flat and the DMA_H gave a long signal is right at the DMA MidLine. That was a 908 point profit!
My guess is that we are not seeing a bottom in yet in place. There are heavy trendlines that say we are still in a Bear market and week before last was likely a Bear market rally.
Be careful with your long positions.
S&P 500
The stats for ES are:
Last Close = +3,827.25 : the close Friday was at +3,827.25. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+3,916.25) = -89.00 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +4,083.90 UIB = +4,009.33 MidLine = +3,884.32 MidAngle = -68.30 LIB = +3,759.31 LOB = +3,684.74 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 3866.20 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 3992.51 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 4375.67 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green
The DMA_H is clearly Green with the Long signal occuring on 6/20/22 from a close of 3,716. As with the Dow, exiting as price touched and was repelled by the DMA MidLine generated 187.75 points of profit. And, of course, that's $9,387 dollars at $50 per point with ONE contract! In just 5 trading days!
Yet, Purple is on top which puts downward pressure on price action. Purple has been on top since 4/25/22. And, shows no turn as yet.
The ES is below all three of its MAVs and needs to get above 3,935 before confirming an up move. That's not much, but will likely encourage more up movement.
The ES shows an Attractor at 3,639 and another at 3,901. These are the areas that would have to be transgressed to establish a new confirmed direction.
The ES pennant formation shown above reminds us that if price breaks out to the upside it could start a new trend in the direct of the flagpole. Which is Down.
Today the high of the market week before last pierced the flag, but did not stay above it. We are now still waiting for more evidence.
The Dow shows an Attractor at 31,343 and another at 29,868. (+/-) These are the areas that would have to be transgressed to establish a new direction. It could go either way this coming week!
I also see a pennant formation stretching back to 6//2/22, which would say that the former direction would resume when the pennant is broken to the upside.
My guess is the market will now enter a period of congestion until it decisively breaks the DMA MidLine.
Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions
Fibonacci retracements show us that the 50% extension is at 4,241. That's a long way up with Pennant formations right at that level. If those are broken its all upward from there. The 23.6% level is the next immediate level that must be penetrated. And, it lies at 3,900. The 38.2% level is next at 4,073. Penetration of these level is key to upward movement. Market action does not seem to be heading that way just yet. Right now I am waiting for last week's high to be broken (3,950).
Last Week I Said
"My guess is that we are not seeing a bottom yet in place. There are heavy trendlines that say we are still in a Bear market and this is likely a Bear market rally."
It did just that over the past week. Chop at the top and then downward movement.
Stocks
HUM
The stats for HUM are:
Last Close = +478.96 : the close Friday was at +478.96. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+456.81) = +22.15 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +481.77 UIB = +470.45 MidLine = +451.53 MidAngle = 69.34 LIB = +432.61 LOB = +421.29 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 448.37 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 443.62 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 433.58 - Above Color of DMA_H = Gold
HUM has achieved its complete recovery recently and bested it with a breakout on Friday of its cyclical ups and downs (see chart).
Buying again when the DMA
Buying again when the DMA_H signalled bullish on 6/21/22 at 449 would give you 30 points of profit per share at today's price of 479. That's another nearly 7% profit, in two weeks.
The UOB lies at 481.77 and the UIB is at 470.45 . The next goal if this little rally holds is to break above the UOB. VantagePoint says tomorrow's prediction is for a high of 482.03, another 3 points upward. The predicted low is at 470.
Even though the DMA_H has been flashing Red for a few weeks, another Buy signal came on 6/21/22 at 449.98. Price is currently at 479.
As with all my indicators I wait for price action to confirm the signal and it confirmed on 6/22/22.
AMZN
The stats for AMZN are:
Last Close = +109.56 : the close Friday was at +109.56. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+116.46) = -6.90 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +122.61 UIB = +118.32 MidLine = +111.75 MidAngle = -7.69 LIB = +105.18 LOB = +100.89 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 112.29 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 116.54 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 151.30 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red
AMZN, is still the stock with the highest PHW, and has been very tradeable from a short position since 7/16/21. It is currently down 42% from its high. That's dramatic! Current price is 109.56, up a bit from Thursday's low.
The DMA_H signalled Bullish on 5/12/22 at 115.15. That's good if you took profits at the UOB when price turned down and so did the DMA_H. That Sell signal has not yet been reversed and price is beneath the DMA MidLIne, which is pretty much Flat.
The 20:1 split made the stock tradeable for the common retail trader, with price now being 109.56. That's doable. The unsplit price would be 2,191.
If AMZN breaks below the Horizontal Line you see below all bets are off and it will likely resume its Bear market downfall.
TSLA
The stats for TSLA are:
Last Close = +681.79 : the close Friday was at +681.79. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+737.12) = -55.33 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +810.51 UIB = +779.12 MidLine = +726.54 MidAngle = -59.27 LIB = +673.96 LOB = +642.57 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 699.29 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 760.45 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 910.86 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green
Cathy Wood's 5-year projection for TSLA (chart below) is still at 4,600 at this juncture; she lowered her projection a few weeks ago. Several other pundits I keep track of are suggesting a much higher price also. And they have announced a split in the form of a dividend (whatever that means). That should be bullish. And yet, prices continue to languish.
TSLA has lost 55 points since last week, falling with the rest of the market in this Bear market resumption. With the rest of the market, it dipped below its DMA MidLIne, but did not go all the way to its LOB. That could be construed as a positive sign, with the markets entering congestion rather than all out capitulation. It could be that it, and others, is forming a bottom. Time will tell. Let's watch.
The 3 MAVs I watch shown above in the Stats. You'll see that price is below all three MAVs with the closest one lying at 699.29. Note that 700 is a strong Natural Number and could exert some influence.
VantagePoint is calling for a high of 691 tomorrow and a low of 668.
Seems to me people should be flocking to TSLA with gas prices high still. Thankfully it has dropped to $5.76/gal in California.
I still believe we will continue to turn to carbon-neutral technologies and electric vehicles. I have not yet purchased their vehicle because I'm waiting for better batteries. I would want to get to LA and back on one charge before it is viable technology in my mind. When the batteries are better I expect this stock to really take off.
Notice that I think TSLA is still a good buy for lots of fundamental reasons (not the least of which is lower prices and a huge run-up potential.) Nevertheless, TSLA has dropped more that 40% from its high.
As you all know, I sold my holdings in TSLA at 1093.87 on 4/5/22. That's 412 points ago. Several readers have asked me to let them know when I buy back in. I'll definitely let you know. And since we now have a bullish signal I'm watching Tuesday's action to buy back in. If price goes up this week, I'm going to buy for a run to the UIB which lies at 779.
ARKK
The stats for ARKK are:
Last Close = +41.22 : the close Friday was at +41.22. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+45.83) = -4.61 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +48.57 UIB = +46.51 MidLine = +43.19 MidAngle = -3.86 LIB = +39.88 LOB = +37.82 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 41.72 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 43.76 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 78.16 - Below Color of DMA_H = Purple
Several months ago I said I thought ARKK price would tick on down to the LOB and possibly beyond. It did just that. And it keeps on going, still with the LOB. Current price is down -74% from its high.
Price (at 41.22) is below the 3 Moving Averages. It has been in a bottoming formation for more than a month and as of the 6/17/22 DMA_H Bullish signal has been rising and is now right above the UIB. Maybe she can keep this momentum rolling and do some recovery.
Light Purple is showing on Who's On Top at the bottom of the chart which says that Purple is on top but the MidLine is Flat. That could speak to that being the end of the little down move, or it could mean that a bit more upside action is in order. I'm very careful in times of Flat DMA MidLines.
When you think about your own trading success, take a look at what one of the most notable traders (Cathy Wood) has done.
I do think, still, that she over-trades. And bottom fishing is a risky business.
MSFT
Last Close = +259.58 : the close Friday was at +259.58. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+267.70) = -8.12 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +277.61 UIB = +271.96 MidLine = +262.11 MidAngle = -2.15 LIB = +252.25 LOB = +246.60 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 258.89 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 265.33 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 298.62 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green
MSFT (closing at 259.58 Friday) is below its 50- and 200-day MAVs and above the 21 (barely), on the daily chart--with MSFT down 8 points from last Sunday. MSFT is now also below its 20% retracement line at -26%. If this isn't recession I don't know what is.
The LOB SunnyBand lies at 246.60 while the LIB is at 252.25. It could easily go either way now, with LOB and UOB being almost equidistant from price. And, the MidLine is Flat, echoing that sentiment.
Don't you think you should purchase the SunnyBands and DMA_H for your own? Sure helps Profits! I will gladly give any reader of this newsletter 20% off for the next month. Use the Discount Code SSS_Offer.
Looking at the weekly chart, yes MSFT is below the DMA MidLine which lies at 262.16 and the DMA is Flat. It should at least make it to the MidLine.
Looking at the PHW_Lower indicator below (green vertical lines) you can see that you could have made $65 per share on a Long trade from that last signal and $36 per share on the short trade.
Buy the DMA_H and SunnyBands for yourself. They are life savers. I totally rely on them for my own trading. You can have these indicators for yourself. They are a great trading tool! And now I have a new indicator that plots a series of colored dots letting you see at a glance Who's On Top, Purple or Gold. Here's what it looks like. It is the series of Purple and Gold dots at the bottom of the chart.
Send me a note telling me what stock you would like to see analyzed next week. If you are reading this I would like some suggestions! Click here to leave me a Comment.
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Oil
The stats for CL are:
Crude Light (CL) on a Daily chart (closing at 108.43 Friday) after being sharply up and then down again for the last few months with Putin's war and now it is in a large Pennant formation with price range narrowing since 3/9/22. The long term trend is now down 10% since its high of 120.50.
Crude price has mimicked the rest of the market, looking like it is basing. It hasn't made any dramatic moves in either direction this past week, and is in a W formation. Price is beneath the 21-day MAV and above the other two MAVs.
Putin will decide where price is going next. If, and it looks likely, Russia begins to support Kaliningrad to the West of Lithuania and North of Poland we will get into a war with Putin (whom my Kyiv friend (in a phone call today) says their news says he's no longer alive) defending Lithuania and Poland, members of the EU.
If price breaks above the long Pennant we will be going up again; if it breaks below the Pennant we will head down.
BitCoin, Etherium, Gold, Bonds
BitCoin
The stats for BTC are:
BitCoin is down 72% since its all time high of 70,040 on 11/10/21.
In after-hours trading this evening, price is currently at 20,200, up 450, and is below all 3 MAVs. There is a strong Attractor at 16,172 which is calling price lower. We had a Bullish signal from the DMA_H on 6/21/22 at 20,875 and we are now waiting for Price to confirm it or deny it. So far there is no confirmation. It looks like Price could move upward to the DMA, which is at 21,805. Currently Price is sitting in a bottoming formation in the middle of a serious Pennant formation and will have to break out from it to continue upward.
While BTC and ES have been out of lockstep over the past, they are back in synch now. BitCoin is out of favor as a refuge from drops in the stock market since it is following the stock market on its way down.
Price is above the LOB and touching the LIB. But, it is below all three MAVs. If Price moves up, even slightly, it could head right to the DMA MidLine which lies at 23,737.77. That would be an upmove of about 2,000 points.
I still believe BTC and ETHUSD will be widely accepted as currency, though I have no idea when. And I certainly don't know where regulation would take it.
Ethereum
The stats for Ethereum are:
Last Close = +1,068.13 : the close Friday was at +1,068.13. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+1,215.35) = -147.22 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +1,420.66 UIB = +1,341.15 MidLine = +1,211.67 MidAngle = -87.45 LIB = +1,082.19 LOB = +1,002.68 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 1320.04 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 1875.99 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 3073.86 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green
I haven't held any BitCoin. Instead, I have had ETHUSD (Etherium) since its low in May 2021. I'm still holding ETHUSD and intend to hold it for years just to see what happens. Currently it is below my buy-in point. Why not sell? Because I'm in this one for the long-term and expect it to take off at some point. If it doesn't, oh well. It was an interesting experiment.
The chart of ETHUSD reflect the chart of BTC and of ES: down, down, down. It has paused for the moment, but it has done that in the past while Purple was on top (where it remains).
I am expecting lower prices still.
Gold
The stats for Gold are:
Last Close = +1,801.50 : the close Friday was at +1,801.50. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+1,830.30) = -28.80 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +1,890.93 UIB = +1,873.48 MidLine = +1,843.43 MidAngle = -75.68 LIB = +1,813.38 LOB = +1,795.93 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 1836.53 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 1854.88 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 1854.54 - Below Color of DMA_H = Purple
Gold is currently up just 1.1 points at 1,809.4 in after hours trading. GC is below all three MAVs. Price is sitting right below the LIB and above the LOB. It looks like it is in a large Double Head and Shoulders pattern. H&S are often failed and this one could be too. Time will tell. If it fails then expect price to move on upward. If the H&S is confirmed, Gold has a lot lower to go!
Last week I said: "Price is very near the LIB and will at least go down to that level. If it is strong it will bounce off that level. If not, it will penetrate it and drop on down to the LOB. See the Stats above." And indeed, it dropped on down to the LOB. On Thursday it hit the LOB and bounced back upward slightly.
The Midline is at 1,843.43, the LOB is at 1,978. The MidAngle is negative. Anything could happen with this one, but it looks to me like it could go farther down.
I still believe we will hit the 2,000 price again and go higher. World strife adds to the attractiveness of gold. I still think that will be broken to the upside. NOTE: Glenn Neely (of NEoWave Forecasting, and our 4th Podcast) thinks Gold has a lot lower to go. It's a riveting Podcast!
And Russia and China have been accumulating and stockpiling gold. And both are rattling sabers. And we recently put sanctions on Russia's gold pile.
July 20, 2022 I will be giving a talk at TimingResearch's Long-Term Trading & Investing Conference. You'll hear and see how I simply Long-Term Trading to beat Buy & Hold.
Bonds
The stats for @US are:
Last Close = +139.34 : the close Friday was at +139.34. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+136.03) = +3.31 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +140.63 UIB = +138.96 MidLine = +136.39 MidAngle = 10.90 LIB = +133.82 LOB = +132.15 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 135.65 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 137.69 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 151.32 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green
Bonds have been recovering a bit this past week and have been up since the Green DMA_H Bullish signal on 6/15/22 at a price of 133-13/32. With the price now at 138-25/32 that's over a 5 point profit which translates to $162 per contract.
Purple is still on top in the "Who's On Top" indicator. Last week it was Light Purple, signifying a weak Flat movement. But, it is now solid Purple again even though price has been moving upward. Price is nearing its UOB which lies at 140.125. That's another 1.5 or so points it could go before it confirms an upward move.
Bonds go down, yields go up. In fact, the 2-yr / 10-year Treasuries yield curve is now inverted; that is the yield on the short-term treasuries is less than the yield on the longer-term. Looks like we are expecting even more inflation and higher interest rates, probably by 0.5 - 0.75 points this next time.
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SunnyBands - SunnyBands are a extension of my DMA. The two lines above and two lines below the purple and gold DMA alert me to where the market is going. They are constructed from ATR bands on either side of the DMA. With them I am alerted to Exact Entries and Exits.
DMA_H - Sunny"s DynamicMovingAverage in histogram format, using sophisticated math to smooth out the whipsaws.
Of course, my indicators work on any symbol, any time frame. In my own trading I use 1-min & 5-min charts of the ES.
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