Sunday night January 30, 2022
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Earnings Reports due out this week: Meta (FB), Microsoft (MSFT), Paypal (PYPL), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Ford (F), ExxonMobil (XOM), Alphabet (GOOGL) and UPS.
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STRATEGY TRADING FORUM. We are continuing this week with Session V. Save the date: Feb 1 2022! Starts Promptly at 10am PST this Tuesday. This is the last session left. If you want me to do another marathon Forum this time on Technical Analysis, please let me know here. I will do it if enough people are interested. Again, FREE.
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QUICKLINKS: VantagePoint | Last Week I said | Dow | ES | SunnyBands Implications | Trading Room | Automated Strategy | Multiple Timeframes | Stocks | BitCoin & Etherium | Gold | Bonds | Diatribe | DEFINITIONS| Quips & Quotes
VantagePoint ai Prediction for Tomorrow
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Tonight's VantagePoint Prediction is of the DOW. As you can see, their prediction for Monday is for a high of 34,964 and a low of 34,526. Finally some upward movement . Friday's high was 34,731 and the low was 33,807. The close Friday was at 34,725. VP has been VERY accurate lately, predicting the recent downdraft before it started. The moving averages are all three turning upward with the short-term now above zero. That's encouraging!
Check my MoneyMentor home page of this website daily to keep up with the daily predictions from VantagePoint. I post them every day after 4pm PST.
While this prediction is good for tomorrow, wouldn't you want to know every day of the week? Of course, the best thing is to run VantagePoint every afternoon, not just on Sunday nights, as I do for this newsletter. And you can always look at the home page of MoneyMentor to see the current VP chart. I just submitted a Review of VantagePoint for Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine. Look for it in 2 months or so.
Last Week I Said
Last Sunday I said " The Purple DMA is on top of the Gold, denoting bearishness. The DMA_H turned red on 1/5/22 the day after the all-time high, telling me to short. Volume, however, is not above average telling me that we have not yet hit capitulation. Bottoms usually end on high volume." And it did, in fact dramatically on Monday. In fact, the low dropped slightly below the -10% line I have on my charts. VP suggested an up day for Tuesday and it happened and I was long intraday.
SunnyBands Implications
Dow Jones
The Dow, which consists of 30 industrial stocks, not the high tech ones that I like to trade, has set new all-time highs only to retreat from them. On Monday last week the Dow dropped precipitously to just below the -10% line, scarring lots of people. And it did it on higher than average volume. That was the capitulation I was looking for. The day closed up on the day with the low having been at 33,150 and the high at 34,420. Quite a day! That was a 1,270 point range day!
Price is now touching the DMA lines, and went right up to the Midline intraday. Volume is still lackluster. I expect the Dow will possibly stumble at the DMA and then breakthrough. It's tough to tell though, as so many of the stocks are still below their respective 200-day MAVs. A few of the stocks, like AAPL, AMGN and AXp are showing all Green on my composite 20-50-200 moving average screen.
The Purple DMA is still on top of the Gold, denoting bearishness. But the DMA_H turned green on Friday signalling early long positions for me. All of my trades Friday were long. And I pulled $937 per EMini contract out of the market.
I have a new indicators I call "Recession" which uses OOEL to draw a horizontal line from the highest high down 20% (or x% via inputs). I used an input of 10% and found that the Dow traded right down to it and bounced.
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S&P 500 (ES)
The ES was up and down this week giving up 39 points from the high on Monday to the low on Friday. All five days were below the 10% correction mark at their lows. The DMA_H was showing Purple, giving a short signal last week. But on Friday the DMA_H turned Green. But the afterhours market is down 15 points as I write this. The ES dropped to its 100% retracement Fib line and is now back up to the 76.4% line. Price is right below the DMA line and will need to break through to achieve further strength. The upper inner SunnyBand lies at 4,648 and the UOB lies at 4,753. Those are targets I'm watching.
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Since this is a weekly missive, we miss the daily changes to the indicators. Send me an email if you are interested in daily updates. I can have them sent to you directly from my trading platform to your email or your phone. Or better yet, order SunnyBands and DMA_H for your own computer. Of course, like all my products, they work on intraday charts just as well. All symbols, all timeframes.
To get a long-term perspective, let's look at the various positions called for by the consensus of timeframes. Note that the timeframes are all bearish in one form or another. All show Bearish except the monthly, which says Bullish turning down.
It really helps to have these indicators for your own, to take your trading to the next level.
Call me (1-760-908-3070) and I'll send you a 7-day FREE trial of these indicators for you to see for yourself. Don't want to call? Just fill out your questions and desires on my Comments form and I'll get right back to you.
Stocks
In this section, I like to take a peek at a few of my favorite stocks. I trade what I know. I use Amazon in real life, so I trade AMZN. I use Verizon as my phone carrier, so I trade VZ. I use Google all the time. I use Microsoft software so I trade MSFT and so on. Let's first look at the RadarScreen view of a few stocks:
The table above is my main research tool. It not only has my DMA_H predictions but also shows my PHW indicator (yellow) at the far right and 3 short-term averages calculated with my DMA smoothing function. I call this one RedLite-GreenLite.
When I sort on PHW from highest to lowest tells me which stocks are the most tradable. A stock that just moves slowly from A to B is an investment, not a tradeable (to me). I'm looking for wide swings from which to profit, not just buy-and-hold. This is how I decide what stocks to buy and which to trade.
This week the RadarScreen shows a new idicator: It is showing the direction of price relative to the 20-, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Since these are popular numbers watched by many, including pundits, I wanted to see if any stocks stand out as still being winners. I also find that the NQ responds to these numbers dramatically on a 1-minute chart.
In fact, there are some. If price is below its respective MAV the cell is colored light red; if price is above the MAV the cell is colored light green. Another way I can tell at a glance what's happening.
Notice that Brookings Holdings (BKNG) is still showing all 3 in green, along with Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX). Another great tool for my research. And yours too if you want it. Some other stocks that show all green are: CHKP and Paccar (PCAR). Wouldn't you like to do your own scans for good stocks?
To me trading is not about being right! There are lots of advisors and stock pickers out there who boast about getting MSFT at $32 and holding it for gazillions in profit. My trading style is to specialize in a few things and be good at them. The stock pickers never tell you how many they picked right, only the few that were the big winners. I specialize in a handful of stocks for the long swings and the EMini futures for intraday trading.
The columns to the right of the RadarScreen window show a colorful area that tells me at a glance the configuration of my DMA_H on all the stocks in this portfolio. (This indicator is called DMA_R_H, meaning DynamicMovingAverage RadarScreen Histogram.) Green Bearish \/ means the stock has been bearish but is now turning up. Purple \\ means primarily bearish. (These are the colors in the DMA_H and SunnyBands DMA. So, "purple" means Purple is on top in the DMA.) Gold Bullish // means the stock is moving upward. Red Bullish /\ means the stock has been going up but has now turned downward.
Of course, you can sort on any or several of these columns with this indicator. Color coding things makes it easy for me to spot opportunities at a glance. If you would like this indicator for your TS RadarScreen click here.
From this look (above) at the RadarScreen (like a spreadsheet) I can sort by SDMA, which shows me all the bullish stocks on top with Dir showing me which are moving aggressively upward and which have been moving up but have now turned down or the PHW which shows me the most tradable stocks. Call me, I'll explain it. 1-760-908-3070 PST. Or, better yet, email me your TS Customer Nbr and I'll set you up with a FREE 7-day trial.
Click Here to see and listen to the DMA_H Live with BingTicks! ALL NEW: BingTicks has been upgraded to talk! In my voice it tells you your current position in the market, or your strategy's position. It says "Flat," "Long," or "Short" and the number of contracts. I wanted it to help me keep my focus on what my chart/position is doing. It works wonders as an attention focusing device. And, it still bings and bongs with each tick of the market. Get it here: BingTicks.
HUM
I haven't yet bought in HUM. It made a dramatic drop on news, and bounced from the -76.4% Fib line, but after a couple of days up it turned back down. I'm waiting for the overall market to turn around before I'm a buyer. However, it did bounce quite nicely only to retreat from the Fib line. I'm interested if it takes out the Fib line.
Price went up through the LOB giving a buy signal but turned around is now just beneath the DMA with the Purple line on top. It might have trouble breaking through that DMA. It has shown promise though and I'm still watching it. The DMA_H turned Green on 1/11/22 with only one Purple break and it is still Green, showing strength.
AMZN, is still the stock with the highest PHW, with Bookings Holdings (BKNG) second, with AMZN dramatically dropping along with the rest of the market. In fact it has been consistently under the DMA since 12/13/2021. The short signal on my DMA_H was given on 11/22/2021. I closed my AMZN holding back then and still haven't bought back in. I'll wait until the DMA_H gives a buy signal.
AMZN sure got out of the channel it was in, but not in a good way. It tested the channel and blasted on down. Does that mean that investors think inflation and higher interest rates will cause us to buy less from Amazon? I don't know about you but I'll keep up my Amazon shopping remotely. It has been churning at the bottom still not breaking the high set on Monday.
Price sits well below the DMA and is bouncing around between the LIB and the LOB. On Friday it broke slightly above the LIB, which is a good sign. Further, the DMA_H turned Green on Thursday, giving an early buy signal to me.
AMZN has Earnings Consensus of $3.88 with the report due out Thursday Feb 3 at 4:00pm EST. (Right after the market closes.) The EarningsWispers.com site thinks it will be $4.40. It will be very interesting to see how investors react to the news.
Cathy Wood's 5-year projection for TSLA (below) is now at 5,000 at this juncture. Several other pundits I keep track of are suggesting 5,000 also.
TSLA dipped below its 200-day MAV on Friday but closed above it after a run of many days of correction. I'm still holding on for the 5-year timeframe.
I still believe we will continue to turn to carbon-neutral technologies and electric vehicles. I have not yet purchased their vehicle because I'm waiting for better batteries. I would want to get to LA and back on one charge before it is viable technology in my mind. When the batteries are better I expect this stock to really take off.
Notice that I think TSLA is still a good buy for lots of fundamental reasons (not the least of which is lower prices and a huge run-up potential.) Nevertheless, TSLA has dropped more that 30% from its high. Amazing how Elon Musk new to take his profits at the high, isn't it?
Ten weeks ago I said I thought ARKK price would tick on down to the LOB and possibly beyond. It has done just that. ARKK is still trading below the LOB. And the DMA_H is Purple; no long signal yet. And we are not likely to until TSLA goes up again.
The chart below is a weekly chart. We have been looking at daily charts, which look dismal. In a conference call she had last week she pointed out that she is up 21% on a 3-year and 5-year basis, outstripping many other ETFs. Corrections are natural and she's now down to the 76.4% Fib line, but not yet down to the lower Attractor. In fact, ARKK is down 58% from its all-time high. Still she's up nicely on a 3-year basis.
MSFT bounced off the Attractor I mentioned last week. And off the LOB of the SunnyBands. Right now it is at the DMA Midline, where the 20-day MAV also sits. On the DMA_H Green is showing for the last 3 days. I'm holding onto my MSFT, looking for higher highs. But, WhosOnTop is showing that the Purple line of the DMA is on top, so that has to change before it's going anywhere long-term.
Buy the DMA_H and SunnyBands for yourself. They are life savers. I totally rely on them for my own trading. You can have these indicators for yourself. They are a great trading tool! And now I have a new indicator that plots a series of colored dots letting you see at a glance Who's On Top, Purple or Gold. Here's what it looks like. It is the series of Purple and Gold dots at the bottom of the chart.
Send me a note telling me what stock you would like to see analyzed next week. If you are reading this I would like some suggestions! Click here to leave me a Comment.
BitCoin, Etherium, Gold, Bonds
BitCoin
BitCoin looks better on a weekly chart than on the daily chart. Last week I said: "On the weekly chart it looks lie it's heading for the Attractor that lies below the 100% correction for the low to highs. These lines are at about 31,000. The DMA_H signalled bearish on 11/12/21 and that would have been a really nice short trade." BTCUSD is still heading down. Today as I write this it is down $225. That's not much for BTC but it's still down, not up.
I haven't held any BitCoin. Instead, I have had ETHUSD (Etherium) since its low in May. I'm still holding a nice profit in ETHUSD and intend to hold it for years just to see what happens. Price dropped precipitously on Friday on down to its Attractor at 2,631. Right to the prices seen in September 2021. And then it dropped below the Attractor, where it still sits. A pennant formation (sjh_I_PennantFinder) is evident right now, which it will have to break to the upside if it is to go higher. Technical Analysis says that Pennants continue in the direction of the previous trend, which was down.
Gold
Gold is flat, flat, flat. Price is currently at 1,787. The chart above is a weekly chart and you can see that it is just moving back and forth between the Inner SunnyBands. Nothing exciting at this point. The DMA_H keeps switching back and forth between Green and Purple, with the DMA Purple on top. The MidAngle is clearly flat. (I don't trade when it's flat--that's whipsaw.) The Purple DMA line is on top and that's about all I can say about that one.
This Wednesday (Feb 2, 2022) I am giving a talk at Traders Exclusive at 11:45am PT / 1:45pm ET where I will be talking about my 2022 Outlook.
Bonds
Bonds are down this week, dropping below the DMA and resting on the LIB in a Pennant formation. Traditional Technical Analysis says that pennants resolve in the direction of the previous trend. The Gold line of the DMA is on top, but they are very close together. The DMA_H gave a sell signal on 12/10/21 which was a very good signal. Bonds have dropped 5% since that signal. The SunnyBands are squeezing tighter which usually makes for a big move at hand. The DMA_H is showing mostly Red and is very near to crossing the zero line and turning Purple. As always, let price activity confirm first.
DEFINITIONS
For a FULL Glossary of Trading Terms, click to go to MoneyMentor's Comprehensive Glossary.
MY DIATRIBE FOR THE DAY
IMPORTANT: Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to buy or sell securities of any type, nor is it advice to make any financial decisions. You are in charge of your assets and only you know your risk tolerance and how much you can afford to lose. Never invest/trade with money you cannot afford to lose. This information is intended as educational only. DISCLOSURE.
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Products
All subscribers to my Sunny Side of the Street newsletter, and Members of MoneyMentor, are eligible for a 10% discount on my products. Call if you are interested. (760) 908-3070 PST. I will be raising prices March 1, so if you want any of my indicatorsnow is the time before prices go up.
Consulting/Mentoring - There is nothing that makes me happier than my students turning into great, profitable traders. I love to help new traders, and intermediate traders who are in a slump.
Quips and Quotes
"Thanks very much; I do like hearing from you [, Sunny]. Thanks to SunnyBands I now have a net worth above $1.25 Million." -Don T. [Editor's note: Don started 3 years ago with a $25,000 account. And, he told me yesterday that his account is now well over $2 Million.] "This is a very powerful tool! It's better that what I've had. I'm going to scrap my old tools. It's speaking to me. I kicked butt today making $1,500 trading crude, gold and the S&P." (re SunnyBands) -Tony C.
"I want to thank you for your books. I have read them all and it has been what has inspired me to have confidence in what I have been trading. This month alone I'm currently up $80k." -Tim A.
"Impressive Resume! Wow. You have forgotten more than most of us will likely learn. :)" - Kevin S.
"U r still a genius!!! Not a single losing trade all week!!!" - Chip S.
SunnyBands - SunnyBands are a extension of my DMA. The two lines above and two lines below the purple and gold DMA alert me to where the market is going. They are constructed from ATR bands on either side of the DMA, which is my proprietary moving average that avoids most of the whipsaw action experienced by other moving averages.
DMA_H - Sunny"s DynamicMovingAverage in histogram format, using sophisticated math to smooth out the whipsaws.
Of course, my indicators work on any symbol, any time frame. In my own trading I use 1-min & 5-min charts of the ES.
If you aren't already a MoneyMentor Member, please consider joining here. Tell me what you trade and what you'd like to see me add to this newsletter.
Sam Tennis' Products
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Sunny has been teaching others to trade almost as long as she has been trading. Helping struggling novices over the hurdles is a passion of hers. Sunny has won awards for her teaching and consulting, being #1 in several categories. Sunny can teach you how to use TradeStation & MultiCharts and EasyLanguage and PowerLanguage, TC2000, VantagePoint, NinjaTrader, Genesis Navigator, and MetaStock so you don’t spend months struggling on your own. If you have a concept you want programmed, she can do it for you or teach you how to do it yourself. Click Here.
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Each of these unique products is available to help others in their quest for profits. And, they are used by Sunny in her own daily trading. The software includes indicators that make trading smooth and easy, and strategies that can even be automated to provide hands-off trading. Click here for a full list, descriptions, charts and prices.
