Sunday night May 15, 2022
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I am going to have surgery next week and will thus be out of commission for a few weeks while recovering. Thus, there will be no Live Trading Room or Sunny Side of the Street for a few weeks. Happy Trading while I'm gone. Make me proud! I'll send out an email when I'm able to come back.
You asked that I notify you when I buy back in to TSLA. Here it is: TSLA just gave a bullish signal on SunnyBands and DMA_H with Friday's close. If it goes up on Monday I'm buying back in, at least until it goes to the DMA MidLine or gives a contra signal on SunnyBands or DMA_H. Current price is 769.59. I'm thinking it could go as high as 877. If the trade happens I'm going to keep a trailing stop as protection.
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This coming week we have several important reports coming out that will likely affect the markets: Tuesday's HPI, Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales and the CPI. Further, we have some important stocks reporting earnings: WIX, TSEM, WEBR, SOHU, MNDY, WRBY, YOU, BITF. In addiction, Reports next week are Empire State Mfgr Index, FOMC Williams, Long-Term Purchases and more.
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Tonight's VantagePoint Prediction is of the Dow.
As you can see, their prediction for Monday is for a higher high and a lower low. The prediction is for a high of 32,428 and a low of 31,911. We closed on Friday at 32,196.66. The market and the predictions have been getting lower over the past weeks but have turned upward since Thursday. Tomorrow's prediction is for an up and down day with a range of about 518 points high to low. Higher prices are predicted from Friday's close and lower prices too. When I see this prediction I wonder which way it will go, up first then down or down first and then up.
The close Friday was at 32,196.66. The VP moving averages are below the zero line. All three are pointinguupwrd now and the short-term MAV is too close to zero to call. It's either on the zero-line or barely above it.
The sjh_I_MovAvg_3Lines (21-, 50- and 200-day averages) show that the Dow is now under all three moving averages. See the Scan below to see what is now Positive (True).
When I get the latest VP prediction I put horizontal lines on my charts at the predicted high and the predicted low so I can use them as targets. Of course, I look at more predictions than just the Dow. I watch all my stock holdings for predicted up and down moves. It helps me know when to take profits and when to buy more shares.
Check my MoneyMentor home page of this website daily to keep up with the daily predictions of the Dow from VantagePoint. I post them every day after 4pm PST.
While this prediction is good for tomorrow, wouldn't you want to know every day of the week? Of course, the best thing is to run VantagePoint every afternoon, not just on Sunday nights, as I do for this newsletter. And you can always look at the home page of MoneyMentor to see the current VP chart. I recently submitted a Review of VantagePoint for TradersWorld magazine. Look for it in an upcoming issue.
Last Week I Said
Last week I said " The LowerOuter (LOB) SunnyBand is still beneath current price, at 32,210.62 while the LIB is at 32,875.02. I expect that if it meets the VP prediction the Dow will touch both bands." The Dow did just that, falling all the way to the 15% retracement from the All Time High. It bounced there, strongly, and is up 83 points on the futures contract (YM). It was up 468 points on Friday.
SunnyBands Implications
Dow Jones
The Dow, which consists of 30 industrial stocks, not the high tech ones that I like to trade, was up and down on Friday and then up again. After a bearish few days, the strength on Friday was impressive, even if most of it happened in the overnight session. It is following through in today's overnight session.
The LowerOuter (LOB) SunnyBand is still beneath current price, at 31,559.79 while the LIB is at 32194.33. I expect that if it meets the VP prediction the Dow will at least rise to the Attractor lying at 32,408.
My 10% "Recession" indicator is still at 33,257 from the all time high and is thus almost 1,500 points above current price action. Last week I said I wouldn't be surprised if price dropped to the 15% line, and it did just that, and then bounced off it. Price is currently 32,223 at 3:45pm PT.
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S&P 500 (ES)
The ES lost points 367.75 this past week. We are currently below the 15% down marker which lies at 4,079.79. Thus, to get back in positive territory the ES needs to break above the 4,080 level. In afterhours trading price is at 4,031.75. It's a start.
The Upper and Lower Outer SunnyBands lie at 4,441.37 and 3,906.82. Price is right above the LiB which lies at 4,007.78 . It will need to rise above the 15% correction line to continue its move upward, otherwise we are likely to experience more downside action. The DMA_H signalled bearish on 3/31/22 at 4511 and has continued downward from there. However, on Friday the DMA_H signalled Bulliish as has today. We shall see what happens during the next week. I'm following along closely.
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Since this is a weekly missive, we miss the daily changes to the indicators. Send me an email if you are interested in daily updates. I can have them sent to you directly from my trading platform to your email or your phone. Or better yet, order SunnyBands and DMA_H for your own computer. Of course, like all my products, they work on intraday charts just as well. All symbols, all timeframes. (And prices go up March 1. The more you buy the cheaper it gets.
To get a long-term perspective, let's look at the various positions called for (above) by the consensus of timeframes. Note that the timeframes are all bearish in one form or another. All show Bearish except the monthly, which says Bullish turning down. Still negative.
It really helps to have these indicators for your own, to take your trading to the next level.
Call me (1-760-908-3070) and I'll send you a 7-day FREE trial of these indicators for TradeStation or MultiCharts for you to see for yourself. Don't want to call? Just fill out your questions and desires on my Comments form and I'll get right back to you.
Stocks
In this section, I like to take a peek at a few of my favorite stocks. I trade what I know. I use Amazon in real life, so I trade AMZN. I use Verizon as my phone carrier, so I trade VZ. I use Google all the time. I use Microsoft software so I trade MSFT and so on. Let's first look at the RadarScreen view of a few stocks.
The columns to the right of the RadarScreen window show a colorful area that tells me at a glance the configuration of my DMA_H on all the stocks in this portfolio. (This indicator is called DMA_R_H, meaning DynamicMovingAverage RadarScreen Histogram.) Green Bearish \/ means the stock has been bearish but is now turning up. Purple \\ means primarily bearish. (These are the colors in the DMA_H and SunnyBands DMA. So, "purple" means Purple is on top in the DMA.) Gold Bullish // means the stock is moving upward. Red Bullish /\ means the stock has been going up but has now turned downward.
Of course, you can sort on any or several of the RadarScreen columns with this indicator. Color coding things makes it easy for me to spot opportunities at a glance. If you would like this indicator for your TS RadarScreen click here.
From this look (below) at the RadarScreen (like a spreadsheet) I can sort by SDMA, which shows me all the bullish stocks on top with Dir showing me which are moving aggressively upward and which have been moving up but have now turned down or the PHW which shows me the most tradable stocks. Call me, I'll explain it. 1-760-908-3070 PST. Or, better yet, email me your TS Customer Nbr and I'll set you up with a FREE 7-day trial.
With this issue the RadarScreen is a "movie" so you can see all the NASDAQ stocks in the "spreadsheet" and their values. They are not sorted, but are just alphabetical. Notice that the great majority are "Bearish Turning Up." Gives one hope for the near future at least.
The table above is my main research tool. It not only has my DMA_H predictions but also shows my PHW indicator (yellow) at the far right and 3 short-term averages calculated with my DMA smoothing function. I call this one RedLite-GreenLite.
When I sort on PHW from highest to lowest tells me which stocks are the most tradable. A stock that just moves slowly from A to B is an investment, not a tradeable (to me). I'm looking for wide swings from which to profit, not just buy-and-hold. This is how I decide what stocks to buy and which to trade. AMZN is still the most tradable, with the highest PHW.
I have this table sorted alphabetically today. Notice how most stocks are bearish turning up, yet there are a few showing Gold, meaning they have turned bullish.
Stock Scan
These stocks, showing True in the Scan, are all still above all 3 moving averages. If you are looking for a stock to buy, this is the way to find them. Can't figure out how to set up this Scan? Give me a call and I'll help you--for Free.
To me trading is not about being right! There are lots of advisors and stock pickers out there who boast about getting MSFT at $32 and holding it for gazillions in profit. My trading style is to specialize in a few things and be good at them. The stock pickers never tell you how many they picked right, only the few that were the big winners. I specialize in a handful of stocks for the long swings and the EMini futures for intraday trading.
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HUM
HUM almost achieved its complete recovery recently on 4/21/22. Just missed it by a "tad". Since then it has joined the rest of the market by retracing down to its 200-day MAV, where it is currently. YET, it has formed a nice basing pattern right on the 10% Recession line. That's a strong positive sign.
You can see that Who'sOnTop is still showing Gold, looking for more bullishness. If you had bought on the Gold signal and gotten out when the DMA_H signalled bearish you would have had bought at 391.66 and sold on 4/11/22 at 451 for a profit of $60 per share or 15%.
The LOB lies at 416.54 and the LIB is at 425.95 . Current price is 438.89. That would be another 13- 25 points or so down in store if HUM drops below the 10% line.
Even though the DMA_H has been flashing Red for a few weeks price had not reacted until 4/22/22. As with all my indicators I wait for price action to confirm the signal and it confirmed on Friday 4/22/22. Current price is stuck in a Pennant formation and is sitting right on, though slightly above, the 200-day MAV. It is below the other two MAVs. The ES is currently up 15 points, suggesting that tomorrow could be another up day. If so, HUM will follow along.
AMZN, is still the stock with the highest PHW, and is very tradeable from a short position. It is currently down 40% from its high. That's dramatic! Current price is 2261.10, up a bit from Thursday's low.
The DMA_H signalled bearish on 3/30/22 and as of Thursday signalled Bullish. It is currently sitting on the 40% down line and will have to break above that to convince me it's going to go up. Notice, however, that the DMA lines are turning slightly upward.
Don't forget that AMZN announced a 20 for 1 split coming on or about June 3rd. That's usually bullish news for stock price which will drop into the 114 range when it happens, based on today's price. And that will make it affordable to everyone!
Cathy Wood's 5-year projection for TSLA (chart below) is currently at 4,600 at this juncture.; she lowered her projection a few weeks ago. Several other pundits I keep track of are suggesting a much higher price also. And they have announced a split in the form of a dividend (whatever that means). That should be bullish. And yet, prices continue to languish.
TSLA lost 96.06 points since last week, but bounced sharply upward after it hit its low of 2/24/22. The rest of the markets did about the same.
The 3 MAVs I watch are at 896.91, 934.34, and 913.16. That means that we had a Death Cross (where the 50-day MAV crossed below the 200-day MAV on Thursday. That is generally a bearish sign. And Purple is clearly on top.
The DMA Midline lies at 877.57 while the LIB is at 784.85 and the LOB is at 731.28. Price is currently at 769.59.. The UOB is at 1023.86 and the UIB is at 970.28. All of that means that TSLA is below its DMA and below the LIB, though not by much. The Death Cross usually means more downside action, but I am watching TSLA to move on back up to the DMA. True, it has to be confirmed by subsequent price action, but I'm watching the whole market right now because Friday's action was bullish.
But! The DMA_H signalled bearish on 4/6/22 and was confirmed by price acion to the downside. It is turned bullis this past Friday. The short entry would have been at 1045 and with current price at 865ish that's 180 points profit per share!! All signalled by the SunnyBands and DMA_H.
Seems to me people should be flocking to TSLA with gas prices right at $6/gal in California--for Regular!
I still believe we will continue to turn to carbon-neutral technologies and electric vehicles. I have not yet purchased their vehicle because I'm waiting for better batteries. I would want to get to LA and back on one charge before it is viable technology in my mind. When the batteries are better I expect this stock to really take off.
Notice that I think TSLA is still a good buy for lots of fundamental reasons (not the least of which is lower prices and a huge run-up potential.) Nevertheless, TSLA has dropped more that 34% from its high.
As you all know, I sold my holdings in TSLA at 1093.87 on 4/5/22. That's 230 points ago. Several readers have asked me to let them know when I buy back in. I'll definitely let you know. And since we now have a bullish signal I'm watching Monday's action to buy back in. If price goes up Monday, I'm going to buy for a run to the DMA MidLIne.
Several months ago I said I thought ARKK price would tick on down to the LOB and possibly beyond. It did just that. And it keeps on going, still with the LOB. Current price is down almost 75% from its high.
Price (at 43.60) is, of course, below the 21- , 50- and 200-day MAVs. Price is currently at 43.85. This does not bode well for her ETF. However, note that it bounced slightly above the -75% line on Friday along with the rest of the market and it is currently above the LIB (which lies at 41.40).
When you think about your own trading success, take a look at what one of the most notable traders (Cathy Wood) has done.
We got a bearish signal from the DMA_H on 4/11/22 and now got a bullish signal on Thursday. This is not one I am watching yet for a buy. In my opinion she needs to climb past the DMA (47.80) for me to be a buyer again.
I do think, still, that she over-trades. And bottom fishing is a risky business.
MSFT (closing at 261.12 Friday) is below its 21-, 50- and 200-day MAVs, on the daily chart, which lie at 276.55 , 288.13 and 304.46 --with MSFT down 13.61 points from last Sunday. MSFT is now also below its 20% retracement line and nearing local lows. Yet, it bounced slightly up off its LIB on Friday.
The LOB SunnyBand lies at 258.39 while the LIB is at 266.65. The DMA Midline lies at 280.53. Price has been moving steadily, downward since the PHW Yellow Dot on 3/30/22 and yet it, along with the rest of the market, bounced upward on Friday.
Looking at the weekly chart, yes MSFT is below the 20% retracement line but has been playing with that line for weeks. This is a mixed signal, which could be bearish, and it could be bullish. Watch price action to give us more information during the next week.
Looking at the PHW_Lower indicator below (green vertical lines) you can see that you could have made $45 per share on a short trade from that last signal.
Buy the DMA_H and SunnyBands for yourself. They are life savers. I totally rely on them for my own trading. You can have these indicators for yourself. They are a great trading tool! And now I have a new indicator that plots a series of colored dots letting you see at a glance Who's On Top, Purple or Gold. Here's what it looks like. It is the series of Purple and Gold dots at the bottom of the chart.
Send me a note telling me what stock you would like to see analyzed next week. If you are reading this I would like some suggestions! Click here to leave me a Comment.
Oil
Crude Light (CL) (closing at 110.49 Friday) after being sharply up and then sharply down and then up and down again with Putin's war and now it is in a large triple Pennant formation with price range being narrow. Actually, on Thursday it peeked out ever so slightly from the top of the Pennant and has gingerly moved upward. In after hours trading today price is at 110.72. Notice on the chart above that price is nearing the 50% Fib fan line and will likely hit it. The price at the Fib Fan is 115.04.
The UOB of SunnyBands lies at 116.13 and the UIB is at 111.70. Price is right now above the DMA, but the DMA hasn't turned Gold yet. However, it is touching the UIB and looks like it will go on up to the UOB. The DMA MidLIne is FLAT, alerting me to the possibility of sideways action impending.
Putin will decide where price is going next.
BitCoin, Etherium, Gold, Bonds
BitCoin
BitCoin is up 1,020 points in after-hours trading this evening. Price is currently at 31,055 and is below all 3 MAVs. There is a strong Attractor at 32,630 which is calling price higher. We had a bearish signal from the DMA_H on 3/31/22 at 45,735 and price is significantly down from there. Yet, we got a Bullish signal on Thursday and price has responded today. There is another Attractor at 34,973, where the DMA MidLIne also lies, and likely calling price upward for a few days.
While BTC and ES have been out of lockstep over the recent past, they are back in synch today.
Price is above the LIB and LOB and heading for the DMA MidLine.
I still believe BTC and ETHUSD will be widely accepted as currency, though I have no idea when. And I certainly don't know where regulation would take it.
Ethereum
I haven't held any BitCoin. Instead, I have had ETHUSD (Etherium) since its low in May 2021. I'm still holding ETHUSD and intend to hold it for years just to see what happens and it is currently right at my buy-in point. Why not sell? Because I'm in this one for the long-term and expect it to take off at some point. If it doesn't, oh well. It was an interesting experiment.
Price is at 2,108.56 up 64.27 points in after-hours trading. Price is below all 3 MAVs and right above the 60% retracement from its high . Moreover price is right on its LIB speaking to the possiblity of an up-move this next week.
The LOB lies at 1899.80 and the LIB is at 2136.40. The DMA MidLine is at 2532.48 and that's where I think we are headed. This week? Who knows. But I do think it will be tested.
I'm wondering how much of the anonymous currency Russia/Putin control. I've been saying this since Feb 24 and only last week the news is now talking about it.
Gold
Gold is currently up just 6.5 points at 1,927.7. GC is below all three MAVs. Price is sitting right on the LOB and looks like the possibility of upward movement to me. But it could just as easily move down from its current position.
I have been calling for gold to reach $2,000 for months in this Newsletter. It is well below that level now.
The Midline is at 1883.1 and the UOB is at 1953.5 with the UIB at 1927.6 I still believe we will hit the 2,000 price again and go higher. World strife adds to the attractiveness of gold. I still think that will be broken to the upside.
And Russia and China have been accumulating and stockpiling gold.
May 09, 2022 I gave a talk at TimingResearch's Crowd Forecast News event. Click here to view it. You'll hear and see how I trade both Bear and Bull markets with my proprietary indicators and have been since 1981. Through multiple crashes.
Bonds
Bonds have been recovering a bit this past week but lost some of that gain Friday and today. In afterhours trading this evening price is down 25/32 at 138-29/32. Price is currently sitting right under the DMA MidLine. It breeched the MidLine Thursday and then failed to move further upward. At this point US is still under a Purple DMA, sloping downward.
Bonds go down, yields go up. In fact, the 2-yr / 10-year Treasuries yield curve is now inverted; that is the yield on the short-term treasuries is less than the yield on the longer-term. Looks like we are expecting even more inflation and higher interest rates, probably by 0.5 - 0.75 points this next time.
DEFINITIONS
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MY DIATRIBE FOR THE DAY
IMPORTANT: Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to buy or sell securities of any type, nor is it advice to make any financial decisions. You are in charge of your assets and only you know your risk tolerance and how much you can afford to lose. Never invest/trade with money you cannot afford to lose. This information is intended as educational only. DISCLOSURE.
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Quips and Quotes
"Sunny Harris is unique in the trading industry. Working with her is more like becoming a student than a customer. The name of her website and branding is very accurate: MoneyMentor.com is a spot-on description for Sunny's passion to truly mentor and cultivate your trading and financial skills. Many others in the world of trading and finance are sales-pitch heavy from the initial interaction with them. Sunny's approach is refreshing -- it is an invitation for you to learn, rather than a sales pitch to buy. Having worked with her for many months, I honestly believe Sunny's life philosophy is "you only have what you give". She is trying to give to the aspiring traders of the world a life-time of knowledge. She has condensed her 40-years of experience into a framework for thinking about finance that will surely enrich you. I give Sunny my highest recommendation and hold her in the highest regard. I wish I had become her mentee 20 years ago!"- Justin H. "Impressive Resume! Wow. You have forgotten more than most of us will likely learn. :)" - Kevin S. "You're the best person in the world." - Rich L. "I want to thank you for your books. I have read them all and it has been what has inspired me to have confidence in what I have been trading. This month alone I'm currently up $80k." -Tim A. "U r still a genius!!! Not a single losing trade all week!!!" - Chip S.
"Sunny Harris is unique in the trading industry. Working with her is more like becoming a student than a customer. The name of her website and branding is very accurate: MoneyMentor.com is a spot-on description for Sunny's passion to truly mentor and cultivate your trading and financial skills. Many others in the world of trading and finance are sales-pitch heavy from the initial interaction with them. Sunny's approach is refreshing -- it is an invitation for you to learn, rather than a sales pitch to buy. Having worked with her for many months, I honestly believe Sunny's life philosophy is "you only have what you give". She is trying to give to the aspiring traders of the world a life-time of knowledge. She has condensed her 40-years of experience into a framework for thinking about finance that will surely enrich you. I give Sunny my highest recommendation and hold her in the highest regard. I wish I had become her mentee 20 years ago!"- Justin H.
"Impressive Resume! Wow. You have forgotten more than most of us will likely learn. :)" - Kevin S.
"You're the best person in the world." - Rich L.
"I want to thank you for your books. I have read them all and it has been what has inspired me to have confidence in what I have been trading. This month alone I'm currently up $80k." -Tim A.
"U r still a genius!!! Not a single losing trade all week!!!" - Chip S.
SunnyBands - SunnyBands are a extension of my DMA. The two lines above and two lines below the purple and gold DMA alert me to where the market is going. They are constructed from ATR bands on either side of the DMA, which is my proprietary moving average that avoids most of the whipsaw action experienced by other moving averages.
DMA_H - Sunny"s DynamicMovingAverage in histogram format, using sophisticated math to smooth out the whipsaws.
Of course, my indicators work on any symbol, any time frame. In my own trading I use 1-min & 5-min charts of the ES.
If you aren't already a MoneyMentor Member, please consider joining here. Tell me what you trade and what you'd like to see me add to this newsletter.
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