Sunny Side of the Street 

This tells us that the market was up almost 241 points from last Friday's close , Green is now on top and price is below the MidLine. 

The DMA_H turned Green on 6/21/22 signaling a Long position. It is still saying Long but hasn't produced any new profits this week, since touching the MidLIne. Visually the DMA is still Flat and price is stymied right at that level. Only price exceeding the MidLine will take the market higher. If it doesn't move upward soon, the DMA will hold price down again. 

Officially we are in a Bear market since the last 2 quarters had negative growth. Another measure of a Bear market is if it falls below 20% down, which it hasn't yet. We have touched the 20% mark, but not yet fallen below it.  

Be careful with your long positions.

S&P 500

The stats for ES are: 

The DMA_H is clearly Green with the Long signal occuring on 6/20/22 from a close of 3,716. As with the Dow, exiting as price touched and was repelled by the DMA MidLine generated 187.75 points of profit. And, of course, that's $9,387 dollars at $50 per point with ONE contract! In just 5 trading days!

Yet, Purple is still on top which puts downward pressure on price action. Purple has been on top since 4/25/22. And, shows no turn as yet.

The ES is now above the 21-day MAV but below the 50-day and 200-day. We are currently at 3,901. Exceeding 3,963.90 would take it above the 50-day MAV and that would likely take the market on upward.

S&P 500 CloseUp		Dow 30 CloseUp
The ES is down 18.75% and is sitting right below the DMA, which is visually Flat. The ES pennant formation that formed along with the DMA_H Long signal on 6/21/22 has been exceeded slightly, which is a positive signal. But it is not enough. I am still waiting for more information as to direction.		The Dow is also right at the DMA MidLine, which is Flat. The LOB is calling and it lies at 30,640.66. The Dow is at 31,338.15 and could easily drop to the LOB or LIB. Price has stayed under the DMA all week and not had any serious upward price action. We had 3 Doji bars out of 5 trading days! The average day moved only slightly compared to the 500-1000 point moves we have seen in the past.

Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions

Fibonacci retracements show us that we are not even up to the 23.6% Fib line yet. A move up to that line would be another 36 points up. While we are above the 21-day MAV we are still below the other 2 MAVs. All we have done for the last 2 weeks is move sideways.

Last Week I Said

"My guess is the market will now enter a period of congestion until it decisively breaks the DMA MidLine."

And Congestion is has been, for 2 solid weeks.

Stock Scan for those Above all 3 MAVs

Stocks

HUM

The stats for HUM are: 

Last Close = +483.38 : the close Friday was at +483.38.
Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+478.96) = +4.42
Purple or Gold on top? Gold
UOB = +488.51
UIB = +477.92
MidLine = +459.74
MidAngle = 65.63
LIB = +441.55
LOB = +430.96
Above/Below 21-day MAV = 454.28 - Above
Above/Below 50-day MAV = 446.38 - Above
Above/Below 200-day MAV = 435.07 - Above
Color of DMA_H = Gold

HUM has achieved its complete recovery recently and bested it with continued upward movement. Right now it is sitting right on the Attractor generated by the high before its "crash."

Buying again when the DMA_H signalled bullish on 6/21/22 at 449 would give you 34 points of profit per share at today's price of 483. That's another nearly 7.5% profit, in just over two weeks.

The UOB lies at 488.51 and the UIB is at 477.92 . The next goal, if this little rally holds, is to break above the UOB. VantagePoint says tomorrow's prediction is for a high of 489.28, another 6 points upward. The predicted low is at 478.04.

Even though the DMA_H was been flashing Red for a few weeks, another Buy signal came on 6/21/22 at 449.98. Price is currently at 483. The DMA_H turned Gold on 6/21/22 and has been solid Gold since then. 

As with all my indicators I wait for price action to confirm the signal and it confirmed on 6/22/22.

AMZN

The stats for AMZN are: 

Last Close = +115.54 : the close Friday was at +115.54.
Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+109.56) = +5.98
Purple or Gold on top? Gold
UOB = +122.42
UIB = +118.41
MidLine = +112.12
MidAngle = 8.11
LIB = +105.84
LOB = +101.83
Above/Below 21-day MAV = 110.57 - Above
Above/Below 50-day MAV = 114.17 - Above
Above/Below 200-day MAV = 150.19 - Below
Color of DMA_H = Gold

AMZN, is still the stock with the highest PHW, and has been very tradeable from a short position since 7/16/21. It is currently down 39% from its high. That's dramatic! Current price is 115.54, up a bit from the low 2 weeks ago.

The DMA_H signalled Bullish on 5/12/22 at 115.15. That's good if you took profits at the UOB when price turned down and so did the DMA_H on 6/9/22. That Sell signal has not yet been reversed and price is just above the DMA MidLIne, which is pretty much Flat. 

The 20:1 split made the stock tradeable for the common retail trader, with price now being 115.54. That's doable. The unsplit price would be 2,310.

AMZN is now above its 21-and 50-day MAVs, which is a positive sign. The 200-day MAV lies far overhead near 150. Price would need to break above the Attractor at 118.15 to convince me it is really going up.

TSLA

The stats for TSLA are: 

Last Close = +752.29 : the close Friday was at +752.29.
Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+681.79) = +70.50
Purple or Gold on top? Purple
UOB = +804.03
UIB = +775.22
MidLine = +727.99
MidAngle = 44.13
LIB = +680.75
LOB = +651.94
Above/Below   21-day MAV = 697.87 - Above
Above/Below   50-day MAV = 740.29 - Above
Above/Below 200-day MAV = 910.33 - Below
Color of DMA_H = Green

Cathy Wood's 5-year projection for TSLA (chart below) is still at 4,600 at this juncture; she lowered her projection a few weeks ago. Several other pundits I keep track of are suggesting a  much higher price also. And they have announced a split in the form of a dividend (whatever that means). That should be bullish. And yet, prices continue to languish.

TSLA has gained 70 points since last week, which is impressive. If the general market goes up Monday I'm a buyer for a short-term trade.

VantagePoint is calling for a high of 775.44 tomorrow and a low of 726.83. If I get in at the open that's a potential of 25 points in short order.

Seems to me people should be flocking to TSLA with gas prices high still. Thankfully it has dropped to $5.79/gal in San Diego, California.

I still believe we will continue to turn to carbon-neutral technologies and electric vehicles. I have not yet purchased their vehicle because I'm waiting for better batteries. I would want to get to LA and back on one charge before it is viable technology in my mind. When the batteries are better I expect this stock to really take off. 

Notice that I think TSLA is still a good buy for lots of fundamental reasons (not the least of which is lower prices and a huge run-up potential.) Nevertheless, TSLA has dropped more that 39% from its high.

As you all know, I sold my holdings in TSLA at 1093.87 on 4/5/22. That's 642 points ago. Several readers have asked me to let them know when I buy back in. I'm letting you know now. And since we now have a bullish signal I'm watching Monday's action to buy back in. If price goes up this week, I'm going to buy for a run to the UIB which lies at 775ish.

ARKK

The stats for ARKK are: 

Last Close = +46.86 : the close Friday was at +46.86.
Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+41.22) = +5.64
Purple or Gold on top? Purple
UOB = +49.36
UIB = +47.11
MidLine = +43.68
MidAngle = 11.17
LIB = +40.25
LOB = +38.00
Above/Below   21-day MAV = 41.99 - Above
Above/Below   50-day MAV = 43.19 - Above
Above/Below 200-day MAV = 76.71 - Below
Color of DMA_H = Green

Several months ago I said I thought ARKK price would tick on down to the LOB and possibly beyond. It did just that. But, currently she is slightly up. ARKK is now Above the 21- and 50-day MAVs although price action is still pretty flat.  

Price is sitting right on an Attractor eminating from a Pennant formation on 6/6/22. If she breaks above that line I'm hopeful for continued moves on up. Of course, if the rest of the market continues its Bearish action I expect ARKK will too.

Purple is showing  on Who's On Top at the bottom of the chart which tells me that we can expect more negativity. And, the DMA MidLine is Flat. I'm very careful in times of Flat DMA MidLines.      

When you think about your own trading success, take a look at what one of the most notable traders (Cathy Wood) has done.  

I do think, still, that she over-trades. And bottom fishing is a risky business.

MSFT

Last Close = +267.66 : the close Friday was at +267.66.
Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+259.58) = +8.08
Purple or Gold on top? Purple
UOB = +276.56
UIB = +271.46
MidLine = +262.85
MidAngle = 15.24
LIB = +254.24
LOB = +249.14
Above/Below   21-day MAV = 257.90 - Above
Above/Below   50-day MAV = 264.52 - Above
Above/Below 200-day MAV = 297.98 - Below
Color of DMA_H = Green

MSFT (closing at 267.66 Friday) is above its 21- and 50-day MAVs and yet still below the 200-day MAV.

Price is Above the DMA MidLine and that's a positive sign. The UIB is at 271.46 while the UOB is at 276.56. The close Friday was 267 and change. That could be a quick 9 points of profit if it moves there. Remember that up moves "climb a wall of worry." 

Don't you think you should purchase the SunnyBands and DMA_H for your own? Sure helps Profits! I will gladly give any reader of this newsletter 20% off for the next month. Use the Discount Code SSS_Offer.

Looking at the weekly chart, MSFT is still below the Purple DMA and on Who's On Top Purple is still showing. Yet, the DMA_H gave a Buy signal on 6/24/22 at 267.70.

Looking at the PHW_Lower indicator below (green vertical lines) you can see that you could have made $65 per share on a Long trade from that last signal and $36 per share on the short trade.  

Buy the DMA_H and SunnyBands for yourself. They are life savers. I totally rely on them for my own trading. You can have these  indicators for yourself. They are a great trading tool! And now I have a new indicator that plots a series of colored dots letting you see at a glance Who's On Top, Purple or Gold. Here's what it looks like. It is the series of Purple and Gold dots at the bottom of the chart.

Send me a note telling me what stock you would like to see analyzed next week. If you are reading this I would like some suggestions! Click here to leave me a Comment.

Please join my Podcast (The Sunny Harris Show! with Sam Tennis). It's a lot of fun getting to know the Gurus from a personal standpoint and hear their predictions for the coming market.  I listen to podcasts while I trade.

The stats for CL are: 

Crude Light (CL)  on a Daily chart (closing at 104.79  Friday) after being sharply up and then down again for the last few months with Putin's war and now it is in a large Pennant formation with price range narrowing since 3/9/22. The long term trend is now down 17% since its high of 120.50.

Putin will decide where price is going next. If, and it looks likely, Russia begins to support Kaliningrad to the West of Lithuania and North of Poland we will get into a war with Putin defending Lithuania and Poland, members of the EU. 

If price breaks above the long Pennant we will be going up again; if it breaks below the Pennant we will head down. 

BitCoin, Etherium, Gold, Bonds

The stats for BTC are: 

BitCoin is down 69%  since its all time high  of 70,040 on 11/10/21. 

I'm writing this on Saturday, so there is no after-hours trading to report. Price on Friday took it above the 21-day MAV which could be a positive sign. The 50-day MAV lies at 27,510 and the 200-day is way above the top of the chart.

Price is above the LOB and the LIB yet Purple is still on top. The DMA_H gave a Long signal on 6/21/22 and it was only confirmed by price action (just barely) on Friday.  There is a very strong Attractor at 22,105, which price is now below. That's where I thought price was going, and it's now below that. All bets are off. It could easily go either way.

I still believe BTC and ETHUSD will be widely accepted as currency, though I have no idea when. And I certainly don't know where regulation would take it.

The stats for Ethereum are: 

Last Close = +1,242.31 : the close Friday was at +1,242.31.
Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+1,068.13) = +174.18
Purple or Gold on top? Purple
UOB = +1,391.42
UIB = +1,318.53
MidLine = +1,203.43
MidAngle = 46.74
LIB = +1,088.34
LOB = +1,015.45
Above/Below   21-day MAV = 1170.77 - Above
Above/Below   50-day MAV = 1705.50 - Below
Above/Below 200-day MAV = 3028.94 - Below
Color of DMA_H = Green

I haven't held any BitCoin. Instead, I have had ETHUSD (Etherium) since its low in May 2021. I'm still holding ETHUSD and intend to hold it for years just to see what happens. Currently it is below my buy-in point. Why not sell? Because I'm in this one for the long-term and expect it to take off at some point. If it doesn't, oh well. It was an interesting experiment.   

The chart of ETHUSD reflect the charts of BTC and of ES: down, down, down. It has paused for the moment, but it has done that in the past while Purple was on top (where it remains).

I am expecting lower prices still. 

The stats for Gold are: 

Last Close = +1,742.30 : the close Friday was at +1,742.30.
Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+1,801.50) = -59.20
Purple or Gold on top? Purple
UOB = +1,856.33
UIB = +1,835.32
MidLine = +1,797.17
MidAngle = -84.12
LIB = +1,759.02
LOB = +1,738.01
Above/Below   21-day MAV = 1813.52 - Below
Above/Below   50-day MAV = 1838.65 - Below
Above/Below 200-day MAV = 1853.95 - Below
Color of DMA_H = Purple

Gold is currently down 59.20 since last Friday. It is sitting on a strong Attractor which might slow further down movement, or it might be broken and go a lot lower. 

Last week I said: "Price is very near the LIB and will at least go down to that level. If it is strong it will bounce off that level. If not, it will penetrate it and drop on down to the LOB. See the Stats above." And indeed, it dropped on down beyond the LOB.

The Midline is at 1,797.17, the LOB is at 1,738.01. The MidAngle is negative. Anything could happen with this one, but it looks to me like it could go farther down.

I still believe we will hit the 2,000 price again and go higher. World strife adds to the attractiveness of gold. I still think that will be broken to the upside. NOTE: Glenn Neely (of NEoWave Forecasting, and our 4th Podcast) thinks Gold has a lot lower to go. It's a riveting Podcast!  

And Russia and China have been accumulating and stockpiling gold. And both are rattling sabers. And we recently put sanctions on Russia's gold pile.

July 20, 2022 I will be giving a talk at TimingResearch's Long-Term Trading & Investing Conference. You'll hear and see how I simplify Long-Term Trading to beat Buy & Hold.

The stats for @US are: 

Last Close = +136.84 : the close Friday was at +136.84.
Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+139.34) = -2.50
Purple or Gold on top? Gold
UOB = +141.70
UIB = +139.92
MidLine = +137.14
MidAngle = 0.43
LIB = +134.37
LOB = +132.59
Above/Below   21-day MAV = 136.05 - Above
Above/Below   50-day MAV = 137.56 - Below
Above/Below 200-day MAV = 150.75 - Below
Color of DMA_H = Red

Bonds have been down a bit this past 3 days but have been up since the Green DMA_H Bullish signal on 6/15/22 at a price of 133-13/32. With the price now at 137-1/32 that's almost a 4 point profit which translates to $125 per contract.

Gold is now on top in the "Who's On Top" indicator. Last week it was Light Purple, signifying a weak Flat movement. But, it is now solid Gold again as price has been moving upward. Price is nearing its DMA MidLIne which could hold it or could be broken. The Fed meets again with a possible rate hike of 75 basis points announcement on July 27th. All eyes will be on that meeting.

Bonds go down, yields go up. In fact, the 2-yr / 10-year Treasuries yield curve is now inverted; that is the yield on the short-term treasuries is less than the yield on the longer-term. Looks like we are expecting even more inflation and higher interest rates, probably by 0.5 - 0.75 points this next time.

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