Sunday night April 3, 2022
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Tonight's VantagePoint Prediction is of the Dow.
As you can see, their prediction for Monday is for a high of 34,942 and a low of 34,643. The market and the predictions have been getting lower to sideways over the past week. Tomorrow's prediction is for a sideways day with a range of about 300 points high to low.
The close Friday was at 34,818. Two of the VP moving averages are above the zero line with the short-term average now below zero. All three are pointing lower.
The sjh_I_MovAvg_3Lines (21-, 50- and 200-day averages) show that the Dow is now under its 200-day MAV and approached but did not hit the 50-day MAV. The 20-day MAV is lower still.
When I get the latest prediction I put horizontal lines on my charts at the predicted high and the predicted low so I can use them as targets. Of course, I look at more predictions than just the Dow. I watch all my stock holdings for predicted up and down moves. It helps me know when to take profits and when to buy more shares.
Check my MoneyMentor home page of this website daily to keep up with the daily predictions of the Dow from VantagePoint. I post them every day after 4pm PST.
While this prediction is good for tomorrow, wouldn't you want to know every day of the week? Of course, the best thing is to run VantagePoint every afternoon, not just on Sunday nights, as I do for this newsletter. And you can always look at the home page of MoneyMentor to see the current VP chart. I just submitted a Review of VantagePoint for TradersWorld magazine. Look for it in 2 months or so.
Last Week I Said
Last Sunday I said I talked to the Option Professor a few days ago and, before we started actually moving down, that I thought we were in for a corrective 4-wave down." I think it is likely to be congestive in nature, not sharply down.
SunnyBands Implications
Dow Jones
The Dow, which consists of 30 industrial stocks, not the high tech ones that I like to trade, was moving up nicely the prior 2 weeks but has begun a mini-correction. I expect it will take us as low as the 50-day MAV which is currently at 34,928. There is also a strong Attractor at that level. After this correction I think we will go on back up to 35,894. Warning, nevertheless, there is a Fib line at 34,608 that might be met.
The DMA_H signalled a bullish position on 3/9/22 with price then at 33,286. The last two days have signalled bearish however. I expect tomorrow to be a bit lower but continued recovery to continue.
The LowerOuter (LOB) SunnyBand is well beneath current price at 33,509 while the LIB is at 33,815. More importantly right now the UOB is at 35,177 and Friday's close was at 34,818 with the high at 34,848.
My 10% "Recession" indicator is still at 33,257 from the all time high and is thus well below current price action. I don't expect the market to reach that low any time soon.
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S&P 500 (ES)
The ES lost 88 points this past week. Not much of a correction yet. As with the Dow, I'm expecting a 4-wave correction that won't be too deep. We shall see.
The Outer SunnyBands lie at 4,593 and 4,24,303 Price is right at the UIB and also right at the 50% Fib line. It will need to rise above the 50% line to continue its move upward. The DMA_H signalled bullish on 3/15/22 and signalled bearish two days ago. Yet Who'sOnTop is still Gold, meaning that the Gold line of the DMA is above the Purple.
I still think we are headed for 4,900 (49 is a square and so is 4,900 and of course it is also a Natural Number). Both the 21-day MAV and the 50-day MAV are at 4,400. The 200-day is at 4,464. That will change as price progresses either up or down. If you want the code for the sjh_I_MovAgv_3Line just send me a Comment and I'll send it to you. Tell me what version of TradeStation you have. It's free; it's code that is in the new book: "EasyLanguage OOEL Made Easy!"
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Since this is a weekly missive, we miss the daily changes to the indicators. Send me an email if you are interested in daily updates. I can have them sent to you directly from my trading platform to your email or your phone. Or better yet, order SunnyBands and DMA_H for your own computer. Of course, like all my products, they work on intraday charts just as well. All symbols, all timeframes. (And prices go up March 1. The more you buy the cheaper it gets.
To get a long-term perspective, let's look at the various positions called for by the consensus of timeframes. Note that the timeframes are all bearish in one form or another. All show Bearish except the monthly, which says Bullish turning down.
It really helps to have these indicators for your own, to take your trading to the next level.
Call me (1-760-908-3070) and I'll send you a 7-day FREE trial of these indicators for you to see for yourself. Don't want to call? Just fill out your questions and desires on my Comments form and I'll get right back to you.
Stocks
In this section, I like to take a peek at a few of my favorite stocks. I trade what I know. I use Amazon in real life, so I trade AMZN. I use Verizon as my phone carrier, so I trade VZ. I use Google all the time. I use Microsoft software so I trade MSFT and so on. Let's first look at the RadarScreen view of a few stocks.
The columns to the right of the RadarScreen window show a colorful area that tells me at a glance the configuration of my DMA_H on all the stocks in this portfolio. (This indicator is called DMA_R_H, meaning DynamicMovingAverage RadarScreen Histogram.) Green Bearish \/ means the stock has been bearish but is now turning up. Purple \\ means primarily bearish. (These are the colors in the DMA_H and SunnyBands DMA. So, "purple" means Purple is on top in the DMA.) Gold Bullish // means the stock is moving upward. Red Bullish /\ means the stock has been going up but has now turned downward.
Of course, you can sort on any or several of the RadarScreen columns with this indicator. Color coding things makes it easy for me to spot opportunities at a glance. If you would like this indicator for your TS RadarScreen click here.
From this look (below) at the RadarScreen (like a spreadsheet) I can sort by SDMA, which shows me all the bullish stocks on top with Dir showing me which are moving aggressively upward and which have been moving up but have now turned down or the PHW which shows me the most tradable stocks. Call me, I'll explain it. 1-760-908-3070 PST. Or, better yet, email me your TS Customer Nbr and I'll set you up with a FREE 7-day trial.
The table above is my main research tool. It not only has my DMA_H predictions but also shows my PHW indicator (yellow) at the far right and 3 short-term averages calculated with my DMA smoothing function. I call this one RedLite-GreenLite.
When I sort on PHW from highest to lowest tells me which stocks are the most tradable. A stock that just moves slowly from A to B is an investment, not a tradeable (to me). I'm looking for wide swings from which to profit, not just buy-and-hold. This is how I decide what stocks to buy and which to trade. AMZN is still the most tradable, with the highest PHW.
I have this table sorted on the RedLite-GreenLite today, so that those stock which are above all 3 DynamicMovingAverages are on top. Notice how thos stock show in the SDMA Dir. The bullish ones are Gold // and there is only one that is bearish. The bearish stock are showing \/ which means they were bearish but are now moving up.
Stock Sort
These stocks, showing True in the Scan, are all still above all 3 moving averages. If you are looking for a stock to buy, this is the way to find them. Can't figure out how to set up this Scan? Give me a call and I'll help you--for Free.
To me trading is not about being right! There are lots of advisors and stock pickers out there who boast about getting MSFT at $32 and holding it for gazillions in profit. My trading style is to specialize in a few things and be good at them. The stock pickers never tell you how many they picked right, only the few that were the big winners. I specialize in a handful of stocks for the long swings and the EMini futures for intraday trading.
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HUM
HUM has drifted sideways to up recently from its recovery from the 104 point, 1-day drop on 1/6/22. For the last 3 weeks it has been drifting slowly higher but at the same time kind of sideways. The profit in a HUM trade was from the DMA_H signal to buy on 1/11/22 and taking profits on 2/11/22 at 424 with a $32.34 profit. HUM has not yet penetrated its overhead Attractor which lies at 441. The previous high was at 466. The DMA_H has been primarily Red since 2/11/22 and yet Gold has been on top this whole time.
You can see that Who'sOnTop is still showing Gold, looking for more bullishness. If you had bought on the Gold signal and got out when the DMA_H signalled bearish you would have had bought at 391.66 and sold Friday at 426.12 for a profit of $48.34 per share or 12.3%.
Even though the DMA_H has been flashing Red for a few weeks price is above all 3 MAVs. Further, price is on a blue candle and still above the UIB, heading for the UOB which lies at 447. I think there is still more to be seen on the upside but it looks like slow going.
AMZN, is still the stock with the highest PHW, with Bookings Holdings (BKNG) second, with AMZN probably in a 4-wave correction likely to hit the DMA Midline which lies at 3,168. AMZN closed Friday at 3,271, so that's about 100 points more to go on the downside.
The DMA is almost flat, and the DMA_H is showing Red, which further speaks to a corrective wave continuing. Price currently sits in a Doji bar astraddle both a strong Attractor and the UIB. I'm thinking it will go on down to the DMA Gold, if not on down to the Midline which lies at 3,167.
The LOB lies at 2,993 and the UOB is at 3,342. Price currently slowed down its descent on Friday with the open very near the close. I'm still bullish on AMZN at this point even though it is now under the 200-day MAV and above both the 20- and 50-day MAVs.
Don't forget that they announced a 20 for 1 split coming on or about June 3rd. That's usually bullish news for stock price which will drop into the 163 range when it happens, based on today's price. And that will make it affordable to everyone!
Cathy Wood's 5-year projection for TSLA (below) is currently at 5,000 at this juncture. Several other pundits I keep track of are suggesting 5,000 also. And they have announced a split in the form of a dividend (whatever that means). That should be bullish.
The 3 MAVs I watch are at 934, 903, and 873. That means that price is nicely above all three MAVs. And has recovered smartly from recent lows.
The DMA Midline lies at 926 while the LIB is at 866 and the LOB is at 829. Price is currently at 1,091. The UOB is at 1,111 and the UIB is at 1,075. So that means that price is between the two upper bands. Often price will just meander on upward staying between the two bands.
But! The DMA Midline is calling and price is rounding over, and the DMA_H has been Red for two days. That part is calling for lower prices
Last week I said: "I'm expecting price to rise to the trendline from the high and second high which projects in about 2 weeks to the 61.8% Fib line at 1,119." And price did almost exactly that with its high of 1,114.77. And it did it in only a week.
VantagePoint is calling for a high of 1,108 tomorrow and a low of 1,074.
Seems to me people should be flocking to TSLA with gas prices above $6/gal in California--for Regular!
I still believe we will continue to turn to carbon-neutral technologies and electric vehicles. I have not yet purchased their vehicle because I'm waiting for better batteries. I would want to get to LA and back on one charge before it is viable technology in my mind. When the batteries are better I expect this stock to really take off.
Notice that I think TSLA is still a good buy for lots of fundamental reasons (not the least of which is lower prices and a huge run-up potential.) Nevertheless, TSLA has dropped more that 34% from its high.
Several months ago I said I thought ARKK price would tick on down to the LOB and possibly beyond. It did just that. Price is now above the 20- and 50-day MAVs but beneath the 200-day MAV. That means price has moved upward so that it has exceeded those two. Price has moved up from its low on 3/14/22 and is now, like the DJIA, stumbling sideways. It is still a long way to the 200-day MAV which lies at 101.30. In fact, Friday's close was at 67.54 and lies above the DMA Midline. That's encouraging.
The SunnyBands are pretty narrow, reflecting the sideways direction and the narrow nature of the price moves. The UOB lies at 71.30 and price is currently at 67.64. That gives her plenty of room to move on up. On a weekly chart ARKK is still below the DMA Midline which is at 74.72. The LOB is at 54.05 and if disruptive stocks don't start moving up soon she will see that price again.
ARKK added ZM SE ROKU RBLX and COINto her holdings as of today's report. And she sold 117,857 shares of TSLA.
I do think, still, that she over-trades.
MSFT (closing at 309.42 Friday) is above its 20, 50- and 200-day MAVs which lie at 297, 298 and 304. MSFT is still holding strongly above them even though it is currently down a bit on Friday's bar, which closed slightly up on a Doji bar.
The LOB SunnyBand lies at 288 while the LIB is at 293. The DMA Midline lies at 301. Price has been moving steadily, though not rapidly, upward and lies just under the UIB at 308.61 and I think is heading for the UOB at 313. However, like the rest of the market I think it is likely to have a bit of a rolling correction down to the Midline at 301.
The DMA_H signalled bullish on 3/9/22 and has been up ever since for the most part. If you had bought at the signal for 288.50 you would now be sitting on almost $21 per share.
Buy the DMA_H and SunnyBands for yourself. They are life savers. I totally rely on them for my own trading. You can have these indicators for yourself. They are a great trading tool! And now I have a new indicator that plots a series of colored dots letting you see at a glance Who's On Top, Purple or Gold. Here's what it looks like. It is the series of Purple and Gold dots at the bottom of the chart.
Send me a note telling me what stock you would like to see analyzed next week. If you are reading this I would like some suggestions! Click here to leave me a Comment.
Oil
Crude Light (CL) (closing at 99.27 Friday) after being sharply up and then sharply down and then up and down again with Putin's war and now it is in a large Pennant formation with price range being narrow. In after hours trading today price is at 99.26. Notice on the chart above that price nearly touched the Fib Fan on the upside and has now dropped back through the 23.6% fan and is hinting at dropping even lower.
The UOB of SunnyBands lies at 120.02 and the UIB is at 114.52. Price is right now sitting under the DMA Midline and still moving downward. There is an Attractor at 92.61 formed from the lows of 3/15 - 3/17/22. Price today in after-hours trading dropped just beneath the LIB and looks to be headed lower. Now if gasoline prices at the pump would just reflect the change!
Putin will decide where price is going next.
BitCoin, Etherium, Gold, Bonds
BitCoin
BitCoin is up 520 points in after-hours trading this evening. Price is currently at 47,070 and is gingerly heading above the 200-day MAV and is above the DMA Midline and sitting between the UOB and UIB. That's bullish in my book!
While BTC and ES have been in lockstep over the recent past, they are not today. The BTC has had up moves while ES has not; it has been on a rounding downward tiptoe. You can see the ES on the chart above: it is reflected in the green and lilac bars.
I still believe BTC and ETHUSD will be widely accepted as currency, though I have no idea when. And I certainly don't know where regulation would take it.
Etherium
I haven't held any BitCoin. Instead, I have had ETHUSD (Etherium) since its low in May 2021. I'm still holding a nice profit in ETHUSD and intend to hold it for years just to see what happens.
Price is at 3,558, up 113 points in after-hours trading. Price is above all 3 MAVs and above a strong Attractor. In fact, it is also above the UOB which lies at 3,537. Again, this is bullish!
There is a Fib line at 3,692 which I expect will be reached in the near future. Did anyone read the article in last week's Time magazine about the founder and key designer of ETHUSD? It was very enlightening.
I'm wondering how much of the anonymous currency Russia/Putin control. I've been saying this since Feb 24 and only this week the news is now talking about it.
Gold
Gold is currently up just 2.3 points at 1,926.
I have been calling for gold to reach $2,000 for months in this Newsletter. It got there and bested it last week only to drop back to 1,925 today.
The Midline is at 1,943.51 and the UOB is at 1,998 with the UIB at 2,005 I still believe we will hit the 2,000 price again and go higher. World strife adds to the attractiveness of gold. And gold is above the 50- and 200-day MAVs while it is below the 20-day MAV just slightly. I still think that will be broken to the upside.
And Russia and China have been accumulating and stockpiling gold.
Monday (March 28, 2022) I gave a talk at TimingResearch Crowd Forecast News. Click on the name of the presentation to view it. You'll hear where I think the markets are going.
Bonds
Bonds have been strongly down this past couple of weeks and are right now caught in a sideways move contained in a Pennant formation (see my Pennant indicator on the chart above). In afterhours trading this evening price has opened lower by 16/32nds and drifted sideways since the open of the after-hours session. Price is at 149 10/32 right now. The Midline is at 151.50 and price is under the down loping DMA. The LIB is at 148.89 and the LOB is at 147.30. Price is almost at the LIB and looks to be headed lower.
Bonds go down, yields go up. In fact, the 2-yr / 5-year Treasuries yield curve is now inverted; that is the yield on the short-term treasuries is less than the yield on the longer-term. Looks like we are expecting even more inflation and higher interest rates, probably by 0.5 points next time, if not more.
I've added a new chart to today's SSS: treasuries. See the next section.
Treasury Yields
Treasury Yields inverted. On 2/28/22 yields became inverted. The red line shows the 10-year treasury and the blue line shows the 2-year. When the blue line is on top the 2-year treasuries are more valuable than the 10-year. With the red line currently on top it means that the 10-year is more expensive. The more expensive the contract is the lower its yield. Historically (don't listen to the panic mongers) when the curve is inverted the market generally goes up. To me this is another bullish hint for the stock market. If you look at CNBC.com and look up treasury yield info you will see that they say this inversion is a leading sign of recession. If you want to see my long-term charts, give me a call.
DEFINITIONS
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MY DIATRIBE FOR THE DAY
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Quips and Quotes
"Impressive Resume! Wow. You have forgotten more than most of us will likely learn. :)" - Kevin S. "You're the best person in the world." - Rich L. "I want to thank you for your books. I have read them all and it has been what has inspired me to have confidence in what I have been trading. This month alone I'm currently up $80k." -Tim A. "U r still a genius!!! Not a single losing trade all week!!!" - Chip S.
"Impressive Resume! Wow. You have forgotten more than most of us will likely learn. :)" - Kevin S.
"You're the best person in the world." - Rich L.
"I want to thank you for your books. I have read them all and it has been what has inspired me to have confidence in what I have been trading. This month alone I'm currently up $80k." -Tim A.
"U r still a genius!!! Not a single losing trade all week!!!" - Chip S.
SunnyBands - SunnyBands are a extension of my DMA. The two lines above and two lines below the purple and gold DMA alert me to where the market is going. They are constructed from ATR bands on either side of the DMA, which is my proprietary moving average that avoids most of the whipsaw action experienced by other moving averages.
DMA_H - Sunny"s DynamicMovingAverage in histogram format, using sophisticated math to smooth out the whipsaws.
Of course, my indicators work on any symbol, any time frame. In my own trading I use 1-min & 5-min charts of the ES.
If you aren't already a MoneyMentor Member, please consider joining here. Tell me what you trade and what you'd like to see me add to this newsletter.
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Sunny has been teaching others to trade almost as long as she has been trading. Helping struggling novices over the hurdles is a passion of hers. Sunny has won awards for her teaching and consulting, being #1 in several categories. Sunny can teach you how to use TradeStation & MultiCharts and EasyLanguage and PowerLanguage, TC2000, VantagePoint, NinjaTrader, Genesis Navigator, and MetaStock so you don’t spend months struggling on your own. If you have a concept you want programmed, she can do it for you or teach you how to do it yourself. Click Here.
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