Monday July 17, 2022 VOLUME 6 ISSUE 22
Is Anybody Reading this Newsletter? I intentionally introduce errors and misspellings to see if anyone is paying attention. See how many you can find, and let me know.
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Samuel K. Tennis is world-renowned as "Mr. EasyLanguage" as he was the lead programmer, designer and programmer of EasyLanguage when he was working for Omega Research, which changed its name to TradeStation in 2001.
Sunny J. Harris has been a professional trader since 1981 (through all the Bear and Bull markets) and author of "TradeStation Made Easy!" She began using TradeStation & EasyLanguage (at the time "System Writer") since 1987 and has been a TradeStation Beta Tester ever since.
Sunny and Sam have been friends for more than 30 years and are partners in writing our upcoming "EasyLanguage Object-Oriented Programming Made Easy!"
I have added two new pages to MoneyMentor in the Reference Section: Diagramming Sentences & Parts of Speech, and Taxes. Take a Look.
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This coming week we have several important reports coming out that will likely affect the markets. We have some important stocks reporting earnings: TSLA, NFLX, BAC, AAPL, MSFT, and more. In addition, Reports next week are FOMC Williams speaks, NFIB Small Biz Index, IBD Economic Optimism, 10-y Bond Auction and more.
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VantagePoint ai Prediction for Tomorrow
VP clearly projects the anticipated direction and magniture of tomorrow’s market. You can use any symbol; I trade the EMini S&P. My read of this clearly the market is poised for further move sideways. The 3 MAVs are in conflict with the long-term above the zero-line, the short-term below the zero-line but turning up and the medium-term above the line but turning down. To me this speaks to more congestive sideways action coming tomorrow.
The VP projection for tomorrow is for a high of 31,610 and a low of 30,828. Friday's close was 31,288 with a low of 30,775 and a high of 31,288. The prediction for Monday calls for a higher high and a higher low. We have been eeking out small up moves all week.
All three moving averages are now pointing upward but only the short-term is above the zero-line.
Last Week I Said:
"Visually the DMA is still Flat and price is stymied right at that level. Only price exceeding the MidLine will take the market higher. If it doesn't move upward soon, the DMA will hold price down again." And it has done so. The DMA MidLine is now pointing slightly downward and even Friday's 658 point move didn't break the MidLine.
SunnyBands Implications
Dow Jones
The stats for the Dow are:
This tells us that the market was down just over 49 points from last Friday's close , Green is still on top and price is below the MidLine.
The DMA_H turned Green on 6/21/22 signaling a Long position. But, the DMA_H flashed Purple on Thursday.
It is still saying Long but hasn't produced any new profits this week, since touching the MidLIne. Visually the DMA is still Flat and price is stymied right at that level. Only price exceeding the MidLine will take the market higher. If it doesn't move upward soon, the DMA will hold price down again.
Officially we are in a Bear market since the last 2 quarters had negative growth. Another measure of a Bear market is if it falls below 20% down, which it hasn't yet. We have touched the 20% mark, but not yet fallen below it.
Be careful with your long positions.
S&P 500
The stats for ES are:
The DMA_H is now showing Purple, or more accurately it is Gray! That means the difference between the Gold and Purple was neither up nor down on Friday, but was equal to Thursday. That's a neutral signal.
Yet, Purple is still on top which puts downward pressure on price action. Purple has been on top since 4/25/22. And, shows no turn as yet. It is consistently sideways.
The ES is now above the 21-day MAV but below the 50-day and 200-day. We are currently at 3,866. Exceeding 3,926 would take it above the 50-day MAV and that would likely take the market on upward.
The ES is down 19.51% and is sitting right below the DMA, which is visually Flat.
The ES pennant formation that formed along with the DMA_H Long signal on 6/21/22 has been exceeded slightly, which is a positive signal. But it is not enough. I am still waiting for more information as to direction.
I am still waiting for more information as to direction.
The Dow is also right at the DMA MidLine, which is Flat. The LOB is calling and it lies at 30,640.66. The Dow is at 30,219 and could easily drop to the LOB or LIB.
Price has stayed under the DMA all week and not had any serious upward price action, other than Friday's which nevertheless did not take us above the DMA.
Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions
Fibonacci retracements show us that we are still not even up to the 23.6% Fib line yet. A move up to that line would be another 36 points up. While we are above the 21-day MAV we are still below the other 2 MAVs. All we have done for the last 2 weeks is move sideways.
Stock Scan for those Above all 3 MAVs
These 17 stocks, out of the 500 in the S&P, are above all 3 moving averages.
Stocks
HUM
The stats for HUM are:
Last Close = +487.54 : the close Friday was at +487.54. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+483.38) = +4.16 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +493.07 UIB = +483.39 MidLine = +466.76 MidAngle = 44.49 LIB = +450.14 LOB = +440.46 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 464.25 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 450.17 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 437.11 - Above Color of DMA_H = Red
HUM has achieved its complete recovery recently and bested it with continued upward movement. HUM moved down this past week, right to the high prior to its crash. Then Friday it gapped up to create a new high close, though not quite a new high.
The last 4 days of the week the DMA_H signalled Red and indeed it went down, only to fully recover on Friday
The UOB lies at 493.07 and the UIB is at 483.39 . The next goal, if this little rally holds, is to break above the UOB. VantagePoint says tomorrow's prediction is for a high of 492, another 9 points upward. The predicted low is at 482.
Even though the DMA_H was been flashing Red for a few weeks, another Buy signal came on 6/21/22 at 449.98. Price is currently at 483. The DMA_H turned Gold on 6/21/22 and has been solid Gold since then.
As with all my indicators I wait for price action to confirm the signal and it confirmed on 6/22/22. When it turned Red and was confirmed with price moving down was the time to take profits.
AMZN
The stats for AMZN are:
Last Close = +113.55 : the close Friday was at +113.55. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+115.54) = -1.99 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +121.50 UIB = +117.81 MidLine = +112.03 MidAngle = 0.43 LIB = +106.25 LOB = +102.56 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 110.70 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 112.16 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 148.73 - Below Color of DMA_H = Gold
AMZN, is still the stock with the highest PHW, and has been very tradeable from a short position since 7/16/21. It is currently down 75% from its high. That's dramatic! Current price is 113.55, up a bit from the low 2 weeks ago. The chart formation is in a "spiral" with lower highs and higher lows. It's
The DMA_H signalled Bullish on 5/12/22 at 115.15. That's good if you took profits at the UOB when price turned down and so did the DMA_H on 6/9/22. That Sell signal has not yet been reversed and price is just above the DMA MidLIne, which is pretty much Flat.
The 20:1 split made the stock tradeable for the common retail trader, with price now being 115.54. That's doable. The unsplit price would be 2,310.
AMZN is now above its 21-and 50-day MAVs, which is a positive sign. The 200-day MAV lies far overhead near 150. Price would need to break above the Attractor at 118.15 to convince me it is really going up.
TSLA
The stats for TSLA are:
Last Close = +720.20 : the close Friday was at +720.20. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+752.29) = -32.09 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +808.38 UIB = +777.52 MidLine = +727.24 MidAngle = -4.43 LIB = +676.96 LOB = +646.10 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 702.50 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 722.42 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 908.83 - Below Color of DMA_H = Purple
Cathy Wood's 5-year projection for TSLA (chart below) is still at 4,600 at this juncture; she lowered her projection a few weeks ago. Several other pundits I keep track of are suggesting a much higher price also. And they have announced a split in the form of a dividend (whatever that means). That should be bullish. And yet, prices continue to languish.
TSLA has lost 32 points since last week.
VantagePoint is calling for a high of 740..81 tomorrow and a low of 708.58. Like the other stocks in this report, TSLA is moving in a sideways spiral. Congestion for days and days.
Seems to me people should be flocking to TSLA with gas prices high still. Thankfully it has dropped to $5.79/gal in San Diego, California.
I still believe we will continue to turn to carbon-neutral technologies and electric vehicles. I have not yet purchased their vehicle because I'm waiting for better batteries. I would want to get to LA and back on one charge before it is viable technology in my mind. When the batteries are better I expect this stock to really take off.
Notice that I think TSLA is still a good buy for lots of fundamental reasons (not the least of which is lower prices and a huge run-up potential.) Nevertheless, TSLA has dropped more that 39% from its high.
As you all know, I sold my holdings in TSLA at 1093.87 on 4/5/22. That's 642 points ago. Several readers have asked me to let them know when I buy back in. I'm letting you know now. And since we now have a bullish signal I'm watching Monday's action to buy back in. If price goes up this week, I'm going to buy for a run to the UIB which lies at 775ish.
ARKK
The stats for ARKK are:
Last Close = +44.11 : the close Friday was at +44.11. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+46.86) = -2.75 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +49.52 UIB = +47.21 MidLine = +43.69 MidAngle = -0.00 LIB = +40.17 LOB = +37.86 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 42.76 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 42.66 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 74.88 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green
Several months ago I said I thought ARKK price would tick on down to the LOB and possibly beyond. It did just that. But, currently she is slightly up. ARKK is now Above the 21- and 50-day MAVs although price action is still pretty flat.
Price is sitting right on an Attractor eminating from a Pennant formation on 6/6/22. If she breaks above that line I'm hopeful for continued moves on up. Of course, if the rest of the market continues its Bearish action I expect ARKK will too.
Purple is showing on Who's On Top at the bottom of the chart which tells me that we can expect more negativity. And, the DMA MidLine is Flat. I'm very careful in times of Flat DMA MidLines.
When you think about your own trading success, take a look at what one of the most notable traders (Cathy Wood) has done.
I do think, still, that she over-trades. And bottom fishing is a risky business.
MSFT
Last Close = +256.72 : the close Friday was at +256.72. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+267.66) = -10.94 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +276.76 UIB = +271.12 MidLine = +261.56 MidAngle = -11.45 LIB = +252.01 LOB = +246.37 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 258.22 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 261.82 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 297.01 - Below Color of DMA_H = Purple
MSFT (closing at 256.72 Friday) is now below ts 21- and 50-day MAVs and still below the 200-day MAV.
Price is Below the DMA MidLine and that's the same news as everything else. The UIB is at 271.12 while the UOB is at 276.76. The close Friday was 256 and change.
Don't you think you should purchase the SunnyBands and DMA_H for your own? Sure helps Profits! I will gladly give any reader of this newsletter 20% off for the next month. Use the Discount Code SSS_Offer.
Looking at the weekly chart, MSFT is still below the Purple DMA and on Who's On Top Purple is still showing. Yet, the DMA_H gave a Buy signal on 6/24/22 at 267.70. However, it was not confirmed by price movement, so I didn't take it. Still waiting for the markets to Do Something.
Looking at the PHW_Lower indicator below (green vertical lines) you can see that you could have made $65 per share on a Long trade from that last signal and $36 per share on the short trade.
Buy the DMA_H and SunnyBands for yourself. They are life savers. I totally rely on them for my own trading. You can have these indicators for yourself. They are a great trading tool! And now I have a new indicator that plots a series of colored dots letting you see at a glance Who's On Top, Purple or Gold. Here's what it looks like. It is the series of Purple and Gold dots at the bottom of the chart.
Please join my Podcast (The Sunny Harris Show! with Sam Tennis). It's a lot of fun getting to know the Gurus from a personal standpoint and hear their predictions for the coming market. I listen to podcasts while I trade.
Oil
The stats for CL are:
Crude Light (CL) on a Daily chart (closing at 94.57 Friday) after being sharply up and then down again for the last few months with Putin's war and now it is in a large Pennant formation with price range narrowing since 3/9/22. The long term trend is now down 21% since its high of 120.50.
Putin will decide where price is going next. If, and it looks likely, Russia begins to support Kaliningrad to the West of Lithuania and North of Poland we will get into a war with Putin defending Lithuania and Poland, members of the EU.
If price breaks above the long Pennant we will be going up again; if it breaks below the Pennant we will continue to head down.
BitCoin, Etherium, Gold, Bonds
BitCoin
The stats for BTC are:
Last Close = +20,955 .00 : the close Friday was at +21,190.00. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+21,765.00) = -575.00 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +23,828.37 UIB = +22,787.04 MidLine = +21,121.42 MidAngle = -81.61 LIB = +19,455.80 LOB = +18,414.47 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 20424.29 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 25697.90 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 42468.00 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green
BitCoin is down 69.75% since its all time high of 70,040 on 11/10/21.
I'm writing this on Sunday, and in after-hours trading it is down 236 points. Price on Friday took it above the 21-day MAV which could be a positive sign. The 50-day MAV lies at 25697.90 and the 200-day is way above the top of the chart.
Price is above the LOB and the LIB yet Purple is still on top. The DMA_H gave a Long signal on 6/21/22 and it was only confirmed by price action (just barely) a week ago. Price is right now below the Flat DMA and needs to break above it to show any strength. There is a very strong Attractor at 22,105, which price is now below. That's where I thought price was going, and it's now below that. All bets are off. It could easily go either way.
I still believe BTC and ETHUSD will be widely accepted as currency, though I have no idea when. And I certainly don't know where regulation would take it.
Ethereum
The stats for Ethereum are:
Last Close = +1,344.73 : the close Friday was at +1,256.88. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+1,242.31) = +14.57 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +1,387.19 UIB = +1,306.15 MidLine = +1,182.78 MidAngle = 45.50 LIB = +1,059.41 LOB = +978.37 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 1138.56 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 1539.72 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 2969.26 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green
I haven't held any BitCoin. Instead, I have had ETHUSD (Etherium) since its low in May 2021. I'm still holding ETHUSD and intend to hold it for years just to see what happens. Currently it is below my buy-in point. Why not sell? Because I'm in this one for the long-term and expect it to take off at some point. If it doesn't, oh well. It was an interesting experiment.
The chart of ETHUSD has jumped 153 points and is now above the DMA MidLIne, which still shows Purple on top. That's a positive sign for ETHUSD.
I don't know what to expect at this point. BTC is down and ETH is up. That it is above its 21-day MAV and above the DMA is very positive.
Gold
The stats for Gold are:
Last Close = +1,703.60 : the close Friday was at +1,703.60. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+1,742.30) = -38.70 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +1,819.93 UIB = +1,796.40 MidLine = +1,755.21 MidAngle = -83.78 LIB = +1,714.03 LOB = +1,690.50 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 1785.34 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 1821.94 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 1852.99 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green
Gold is currently up 2.9 since last Friday, but down on the week by more than 38 points. It is sitting on a strong Attractor which might slow further down movement, or it might be broken and go a lot lower.
Last week I said: "Price is very near the LIB and will at least go down to that level. If it is strong it will bounce off that level. If not, it will penetrate it and drop on down to the LOB. See the Stats above." And indeed, it dropped on down beyond the LOB.
The Midline is at 1,755.21, the LOB is at 1,690.50. The MidAngle is negative. Anything could happen with this one, but it looks to me like it could go farther down.
I still believe we will hit the 2,000 price again and go higher. World strife adds to the attractiveness of gold. I still think that will be broken to the upside. NOTE: Glenn Neely (of NEoWave Forecasting, and our 4th Podcast) thinks Gold has a lot lower to go. It's a riveting Podcast!
And Russia and China have been accumulating and stockpiling gold. And both are rattling sabers. And we recently put sanctions on Russia's gold pile.
Bonds
The stats for @US are:
Last Close = +140.03 : the close Friday was at +140.03. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+136.84) = +3.19 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +142.21 UIB = +140.42 MidLine = +137.59 MidAngle = 4.86 LIB = +134.75 LOB = +132.96 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 137.61 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 137.67 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 150.27 - Below Color of DMA_H = Gold
Bonds are up on the week but have been up since the Green DMA_H Bullish signal on 6/15/22 at a price of 133-13/32. With the price now at 137-1/32 that's almost a 7 point profit which translates to $225 per contract.
Gold is now on top in the "Who's On Top" indicator. Previously it was Light Purple, signifying a weak Flat movement. Then it went to light Gold and is now solid Gold. Price dropped on 7/6 - 7/8 and subsequently is recovering. Still, they will need to best the high of 7/6 at 142 and change for Bonds to continue on upward.
Bonds go down, yields go up. In fact, the 2-yr / 10-year Treasuries yield curve is now inverted; that is the yield on the short-term treasuries is less than the yield on the longer-term. Looks like we are expecting even more inflation and higher interest rates, probably by 0.5 - 0.75 points this next time.
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DMA_H - Sunny"s DynamicMovingAverage in histogram format, using sophisticated math to smooth out the whipsaws.
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