Sunday August 07, 2022 VOLUME 6 ISSUE 25
Is Anybody Reading this Newsletter? I intentionally introduce errors and misspellings to see if anyone is paying attention. See how many you can find, and let me know.
Don't forget to attend the last meeting of the "EasyLanguage Forum". Ends this coming Tuesday at 8:30amPT/11:30amET. Sam Tennis and I will be covering EasyLanguage from Beginners to Intermediate. And even some OOEL. It will be intense and lots of fun. You will only have access to the Recordings & Slides if you are Registered and Paid. If you couldn't come and want the materials you may purchase them for a modest cost here: OrderForm.
Check out the new symbol: KDP. For a recent event with TimingResearch (David Kosmider) called Lightning Round #1 I highlighted a stock I think will do well in the future. Click on the link and you can view the analysis. The stock is KDP, Keuring Dr. Pepper. My though was that coffee is our national pastime, and certainly mine, and that it will continue to do well in the future. Since my prediction it has continued to move upward and I want you to share in the analysis. KDP.
If you Registered for the EasyLanguage Forum and would like to view the Slides and Video, use your email and password to Login. If you forgot your password, just shoot me an email.
If you didn't Register and didn't attend the classes, you may want to access the Slides and Videos. For a modest cost, they are HERE.
Samuel K. Tennis is world-renowned as "Mr. EasyLanguage" as he was the lead programmer, designer and programmer of EasyLanguage when he was working for Omega Research, which changed its name to TradeStation in 2001.
Sunny J. Harris has been a professional trader since 1981 (through all the Bear and Bull markets) and author of "TradeStation Made Easy!" She began using TradeStation & EasyLanguage (at the time "System Writer") since 1987 and has been a TradeStation Beta Tester ever since.
Sunny and Sam have been friends for more than 30 years and are partners in writing our upcoming "EasyLanguage Object-Oriented Programming Made Easy!"
I have added three new pages to MoneyMentor in the Reference Section: Diagramming Sentences & Parts of Speech, a map of Russia, and Taxes. Take a Look. And Glenn Neely of NEoWave.com has consented to allowing me to post his Market Forecast for the S&P. Take a look below.
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August 13, 2022 I will be giving a talk at Traders Corner. You'll hear and see how I simplify Long-Term Trading to beat Buy & Hold. Register Now to Attend.
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The most recent Episode is an enlightening visit with Peter Eliades, world renowned Cycles Analyst. Before that was Michael Filighera illustrious Elliottician. Past episodes include: Glenn Neely (Elliott Wave Expert: neowave.com), Perry Kaufman (prolific author and master trader: kaufmansignals.com), and technical Rock Star Tim Slater. Upcoming episodes include Harry Boxer, David Kosmider (timingresearch.com) and Wally Olopade of RightSide Trading, Joe Krutsinger and now Anka Metcalf. I listen to Podcasts while I trade! You don't have to just sit there and listen.
Don't miss these Podcasts! These have been delightful and enlightening interviews into the lives of legendayr traders and their take on the markets.
This coming week we have several important reports coming out that will likely affect the markets. We have some important stocks reporting earnings: PLTR,s BRK.B, BNTX, TSN, and more. In addition, Reports next week are Small Biz Index, NonFarm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, Economic Optimism and more.
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VantagePoint ai Prediction for Tomorrow
VP clearly projects the anticipated direction and magniture of tomorrow’s market. You can use any symbol; I trade the EMini S&P. My read of this clearly the market is poised for further move sideways. The 3 MAVs are in conflict with the long-term above the zero-line, the short-term below the zero-line but turning up and the medium-term above the line but turning down. To me this speaks to more congestive sideways action coming tomorrow.
The VP projection for tomorrow is for an up day with a high of 33,072 and a low of 32,781 Friday's close was 32,803 with a low of 32,489 and a high of 32,814. The prediction for Monday calls for a higher high and a higher low. We have been eeking out continued up moves for about 3 weeks.
All three moving averages are now above the zero-line and all three are pointed upward.
Glenn Neely's S&P Prediction
Take a look at how accurate Glenn's chart patterns have been with his NEoWave River Theory. See where he thinks it will go next. Click to the right of the image to visit his website.
http://www.neowave.com
Last Week I Said:
"The real question is whether this is a Bear Rally or not. At this point I think it is, though touching the UOB would negate that. The previous Bear Rally that started June 20 went up to the UIB and failed. The current rally will need to break above 33,073 to continue." In fact, the rally needs to break above the 200-day line to be a Bull.
SunnyBands Implications
Dow Jones
The stats for the Dow are:
This tells us that the market was down ever so slightly, ending the week 41.66 points below last week's close to close at 32,803.
Basically the daily chart was just sideways all week. Not much movement on the Dow. Now it is stuck in a Pennant formation that needs to be broken to one side or the other to give us a direction.
The real question is whether this is a Bear Rally or not. At this point I think it is, though touching the UOB might negate that.. The previous Bear Rally that started June 20 went up to the UIB and failed. The current rally will need to break above 33,073 to continue.
We are currently above both the 21- and 50-day MAVs and the 200-day MAV lies at 33,967. The 200-day is a likely target.
Be careful with your long positions.
S&P 500
The stats for ES are:
The DMA_H is still showing Gold , indicating strong Bullishness. But the market basically moved sideways all week. Nevertheless the ES ended up 13.25 on the week, besting the Dow.
The Gold DMA is now on top which puts upward pressure on price action. Purple was on top since 4/25/22, but it turned to Gold on 7/28/22. It has been a long time of going down. This could possibly mean the turn is in, but it is still too soon to really tell.
The ES is now above the 21-day MAV and above the 50-day yet lower than the 200-day MAV. The 200-day MAV lies at 4,330. We are currently at 4,146.75. Exceeding that line will signal another Bull market.
Lots still depends on the state of the Recession and what the Fed does next to Interest Rates. The 75-basis point increase last month didn't seem to deter the market from going up, so who knows.
The ES is now down only 13.64%. It has been recovering . It is above the DMA MidLine and the UOB and has a strong Attractor at 4,209 that it would easily touch. It remains to be seen whether it will break above it. If it does, it's likely to move further upward.
Last week I said: "It seems to me that it could move higher, on any kind of news." And that's what it did." I am still waiting for more information as to whether we are in a Bear Rally or if this is a new move up. Breaking the Attractor mentioned above will tell.
I am still waiting for more information as to whether we are in a Bear Rally or if this is a new move up. Breaking the Attractor mentioned above will tell.
The Dow is also right below the UOB and hesitating. It did not make it above the UOB all week. In today's after-hours market the futures are retracting just a bit, but are still above the UOB.
There is a strong Attractor at 33,282, above current price.
The Dow will have to exceed that price to signal that we are really headed upward.
Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions
Fibonacci retracements show us that the Dow is now heading for its 0% retracement, meaning it's back to the place I drew the lines originally, but is not quite there. The 0% line is at 33,282 and current price is 32,803. It's not far to go. It could easily do that move in a day if it wanted to. The reports coming out on Tuesday and Wednesday will likely have some effect.
Stock Scan for those Above all 3 MAVs
Notice that there are now hundreds of stocks all above their 3 MAVs.
Stocks
KDP: Keuring Dr. Pepper
The stats for KDP are:
When I publicly recommended this stock in David Kosmider's TimingResearch "Lightning Round #1" price was down at 34.94. It is now sitting at 38.72, down very slightly from last week.
I, an avid coffee drinker, believed that this non-alcholic beverage vendor would continue to thrive. Keuring is a great coffeemaker and very popular. They even have one at my hairdresser's.
Price dipped below the UIB this week and the low touched the DMA MidLine but bounced right back up.
Of course, that's not all I was looking at. Price had just bounced off the LOB of my SunnyBands indicator and volume was increasing and further, my Automated Strategy had given a Buy Signal. I'm very interested in the progress of this little stock.
Notice that now price is now below the UOB and the UIB. But only slightly. And price is above all 3 MAVs.
Any positivity in the general market will continue to take this stock on up. It's a hold for the long-term for me.
HUM
The stats for HUM are:
Last Close = +484.02 : the close Friday was at +484.02. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+482.00) = +2.02 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +497.16 UIB = +488.95 MidLine = +475.48 MidAngle = 6.84 LIB = +462.00 LOB = +453.79 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 483.46 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 465.10 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 442.58 - Above Color of DMA_H = Red
HUM is up this week from its recent high (on 7/19/22) though it is still nicely up since its "crash". Price is now above all 3 MAVs! In fact, while it is under the UOB it just moved sideways like the rest of the market last week.
Further, the DMA_H is showing Red still. So, this one is definitely climbing a wall of worry. Remember, I always wait for price action to confirm the signals. Red is only as meaningful as price action makes it. If price continues on down then take profits and stand aside.
The UOB lies at 497 and the UIB is at 489 . I'm guessing that price will touch the MidLine at 475 and bounce from there. This is another time to be a buyer as far as I'm concerned.
Even though the DMA_H was been flashing Red for a few weeks, another Buy signal came on 6/21/22 at 449.98. Price is currently at 484. The DMA_H turned Gold on 6/21/22 and then reversed and turned Red on 7/12/22. It is still Red.
As with all my indicators I wait for price action to confirm the signal and it confirmed on 6/22/22. When it turned Red and was confirmed with price moving down was the time to take profits. Now it looks like a Buying opportunity.
AMZN
The stats for AMZN are:
Last Close = +140.80 : the close Friday was at +140.80. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+134.95) = +5.85 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +141.66 UIB = +136.67 MidLine = +127.72 MidAngle = 64.19 LIB = +118.77 LOB = +113.78 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 122.83 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 117.13 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 145.89 - Below Color of DMA_H = Gold
AMZN, is no longer the stock with the highest PHW. In fact, it ranks under HUM and TSLA and has in the recent past spent a lot of time going down. However, on 7/15/22 it gave a Buy signal on the DMA_H and was up last week 5.85 more points, folllowing through on the gap.
Price is almost to its 200-day moving average! When it breaks above that (145.89) it could mean a lot more on the upside.
Further, price is now above the UOB which often portends further price action upward. Note that it is still down 25% from its all time high.
TSLA
The stats for TSLA are:
Last Close = +864.51 : the close Friday was at +864.51. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+891.45) = -26.94 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +940.08 UIB = +904.97 MidLine = +843.13 MidAngle = 82.57 LIB = +781.30 LOB = +746.19 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 799.05 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 744.36 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 910.92 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red
Cathy Wood's 5-year projection for TSLA (chart below) is still at 4,600 at this juncture; she lowered her projection a few weeks ago. Several other pundits I keep track of are suggesting a much higher price also. And they have announced a 3:1 split to come August 24th along with a Dividend. That should be bullish. And now price has been moving nicely upward.
Notice on the chart that I went short TSLA on Thursday for a nice profit on Friday.
TSLA has gained almost 25 points since last week. I'll be watching closely for more action to buy again. But, I'm being careful.
Seems to me people should be flocking to TSLA with gas prices high still. Thankfully it has dropped to $5.10/gal in San Diego, California.
I still believe we will continue to turn to carbon-neutral technologies and electric vehicles. I have not yet purchased their vehicle because I'm waiting for better batteries. I would want to get to LA and back on one charge before it is viable technology in my mind. When the batteries are better I expect this stock to really take off.
Notice that I think TSLA is still a good buy for lots of fundamental reasons (not the least of which is lower prices and a huge run-up potential.) Nevertheless, TSLA has dropped more that 39% from its high.
ARKK
The stats for ARKK are:
Last Close = +50.07 : the close Friday was at +50.07. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+45.13) = +4.94 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +51.38 UIB = +49.25 MidLine = +45.78 MidAngle = 20.30 LIB = +42.31 LOB = +40.18 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 46.12 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 43.92 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 69.98 - Below Color of DMA_H = Gold
Several months ago I said I thought ARKK price would tick on down to the LOB and possibly beyond. It did just that. But, currently she is somewhat up. ARKK is now Above the 21- and 50-day MAVs although price action is turning upward.
Price is now above the 21- and 50-day MAVs but still below the 200-day MAV.
Gold is still showing on Who's On Top at the bottom of the chart which tells me that we can expect more positivity. And, the DMA MidLine is now turning up.
Although ARKK has been going up, it is doing it very slowly. She is above the sideways channel she's been in for months and that's encouraging.
When you think about your own trading success, take a look at what one of the most notable traders (Cathy Wood) has done.
I do think, still, that she over-trades. And bottom fishing is a risky business.
MSFT
Last Close = +282.91 : the close Friday was at +282.91. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+280.74) = +2.17 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +286.03 UIB = +279.60 MidLine = +269.49 MidAngle = 51.56 LIB = +259.38 LOB = +252.95 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 266.15 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 263.38 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 295.13 - Below Color of DMA_H = Gold
MSFT (closing at 282.91 Friday) is now above its 21- and above the 50-day MAVs and still below the 200-day MAV. It doesn't have much farther to go up to reach to 200-day. It could do it this week.
Price is right below the UOB and the DMA has turned Gold. The last 3 days of the week were sideways so that price is now sitting right on the UIB. I expect higher prices this week unless the Tuesday and Wednesday reports are bad. Then all bets are off.
The long-term trendline still shows that MSFT is down about 19% from its all-time high. This is one of the reasons we are still in a Bear market.
Don't you think you should purchase the SunnyBands and DMA_H for your own? Sure helps Profits! I will gladly give any reader of this newsletter 20% off until August 10, and then it's back to standard prices. No more discounts. Use the Discount Code SSS_Offer.
Looking at the weekly chart, MSFT is well above the Gold DMA and now on Who's On Top Gold is showing again. Last week I said it would likely turn Gold and now it has. Yet, the DMA_H gave a Buy signal on 6/24/22 at 267.70. However, it was not confirmed by price movement, so I didn't take it until Wednesday.
Buy the DMA_H and SunnyBands for yourself. They are life savers. I totally rely on them for my own trading. You can have these indicators for yourself. They are a great trading tool! And now I have a new indicator that plots a series of colored dots letting you see at a glance Who's On Top, Purple or Gold. Here's what it looks like. It is the series of Purple and Gold dots at the bottom of the chart.
Please join my Podcast (The Sunny Harris Show! with Sam Tennis). It's a lot of fun getting to know the Gurus from a personal standpoint and hear their predictions for the coming market. I listen to podcasts while I trade.
Oil
The stats for CL are:
Crude Light (CL) on a Daily chart (closing at 89.01 Friday) is down 9.61 points again this past week. Since the high in March it has continued to decline.
Price is under the LOB, which is very Bearish. On the DMA_H Purple is solidly on top since the short signal on 6/10/22.
Fibonacci Lines suggest it might go on down to $80.
Putin will decide where price is going next. If, and it looks likely, Russia begins to support Kaliningrad to the West of Lithuania and North of Poland we will get into a war with Putin defending Lithuania and Poland, members of the EU.
BitCoin, Etherium, Gold, Bonds
BitCoin
The stats for BTC are:
Last Close = +22,960.00 : the close Friday was at +22,960.00. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+23,990.00) = -1,030.00 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +24,681.95 UIB = +23,662.84 MidLine = +21,957.60 MidAngle = 81.26 LIB = +20,252.37 LOB = +19,233.26 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 22213.57 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 23626.20 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 40156.38 - Below Color of DMA_H = Gold
BitCoin is down 65% since its all time high of 70,040 on 11/10/21.
I'm writing this on Sunday, and in after-hours trading it is up 15 points. Price last week took it above the 21-day MAV which could be a positive sign. The 50-day MAV lies at 23,6626 and the 200-day is way above the top of the chart at roughly 40,000.
Price is above the DMA MidLine and the LIB lies below at 20,252. The UOB is at 24,681 which is where I think we are headed.
Ethereum
The stats for Ethereum are:
Last Close = +1,678.01 : the close Friday was at +1,678.01. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+1,733.50) = -55.49 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +1,776.94 UIB = +1,661.39 MidLine = +1,455.12 MidAngle = 82.90 LIB = +1,248.86 LOB = +1,133.31 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 1466.58 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 1414.20 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 2793.52 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red
I haven't held any BitCoin. Instead, I have had ETHUSD (Ethereum) since its low in May 2021. I'm still holding ETHUSD and intend to hold it for years just to see what happens. Currently it is below my buy-in point. Why not sell? Because I'm in this one for the long-term and expect it to take off at some point. If it doesn't, oh well. It was an interesting experiment.
The chart of ETHUSD has jumped 128 points in after-hours tradding and is now above the DMA MidLIne, which now shows Gold on top. That's a positive sign for ETHUSD.
I don't know what to expect at this point. BTC is slightly up and ETH is more up. That it is above its 21-day MAV and the 50-day, and above the DMA is very positive. It did touch the MidLine on 7/27/22 (Wednesday) but bounced right back up.
Gold
The stats for Gold are:
Last Close = +1,791.20 : the close Friday was at +1,791.20. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+1,781.80) = +9.40 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +1,817.44 UIB = +1,796.72 MidLine = +1,762.79 MidAngle = 68.30 LIB = +1,728.85 LOB = +1,708.13 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 1753.18 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 1808.14 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 1867.63 - Below Color of DMA_H = Gold
Gold is currently up +9 since last week, and yet is below the slower two MAVs. Check out Glenn Neely's report on his website to get an idea where he thinks Gold is going. His predictions are very accurate. Spoiler alert, he thinks it is going way down.
The Midline is at 1762 the LOB is at 1,708. The MidAngle is positive. Anything could happen with this one, but it looks to me like it could go farther up t me.
I still believe we will hit the 2,000 price again someday and go higher. World strife used to add to the attractiveness of gold. I still think that will be broken to the upside. NOTE: Glenn Neely (of NEoWave Forecasting, and our 4th Podcast) thinks Gold has a lot lower to go. It's a riveting Podcast!
And Russia and China have been accumulating and stockpiling gold. And both are rattling sabers. And we recently put sanctions on Russia's gold pile.
August 13, 2022 I will be giving a talk at Traders Corner . You'll hear and see how I simplify Long-Term Trading to beat Buy & Hold.
Bonds
The stats for @US are:
Last Close = +141.22 : the close Friday was at +141.22. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+144.00) = -2.78 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +145.77 UIB = +143.89 MidLine = +140.71 MidAngle = 5.85 LIB = +137.53 LOB = +135.65 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 141.07 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 138.71 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 149.35 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red
Bonds are down on the week for a loss of 2.78 points.
Gold is still on top in the "Who's On Top" indicator. Previously it was Light Purple, signifying a weak Flat movement. Then it went to light Gold and is now solid. The buy signal on 6/16/22 was a good one, buying at 133-13/32. That would have been 8 points of profit since the signal.
Bonds go down, yields go up. In fact, the 2-yr / 10-year Treasuries yield curve is now inverted again; that is the yield on the short-term treasuries is less than the yield on the longer-term. Looks like we are expecting even more inflation and higher interest rates, probably by 0.5 - 0.75 points this next time.
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SunnyBands - SunnyBands are a extension of my DMA. The two lines above and two lines below the purple and gold DMA alert me to where the market is going. They are constructed from ATR bands on either side of the DMA. With them I am alerted to Exact Entries and Exits.
DMA_H - Sunny"s DynamicMovingAverage in histogram format, using sophisticated math to smooth out the whipsaws.
Of course, my indicators work on any symbol, any time frame. In my own trading I use 1-min & 5-min charts of the ES.
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