Sunday March 10, 2024 VOLUME 8 ISSUE 11
AAPL | AMZN | BTC | DOW | CL | ES | GC | GOOGL | HUM | META | MSFT | NVDA | SBUX | TSLA | US
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Sunny Side of the Street (SSS)
The charts below are now organized first alphabetically by commodities and then alphabetically by stock symbol. It should be easier to read and find the symbol you want to take a look at.
Vantage Point Prediction
Is that up or down? It looks like both, possibly meaning a choppy day. The VP Prediction for tomorrow: High : 38,948 Low: 38,655. The Moving Averages are primarily moving sideways with all 3 MAVs very close to the zero-line. Is choppiness in store? I wouldn't be surprised.
This one sure makes it look like we are movin' on up.
Take a look at the Monthly chart below.
Glenn Neely's NEoWave Forecast
Glenn Neely has graciously granted us continued access to his weekly predictions! Take a look at how accurate Glenn's chart patterns have been with his NEoWave River Theory and NEoWave technology. See where he thinks it will go next.
In today's chart is a Monthly view so you can see longer term predictions. Click on the link to http://www.NEoWave.com visit his website.
http://www.NEoWave.com
Notice the spots marked i, B and G. Looks like those are his projections for now. Looks to me like we could be heading for a new high.
Overview (DOW & ES)
DOW ($INDU)
Chart
Statistics
$INDU was down by -364.69 this week and now is sitting at 38722.69.
Last Time I Said
"The market capitulated on Monday of this week and fell, though it wasn't impressive, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Then on Thursday we had a down candle that explored into higher territory before closing quite a bit above its low.
If the selling gathers momentum then we could go down to the DMA which is currently at 38,287. That would put us about 500 points down. If it continues to go down after this week it has an Attractor below at 37,998. That's not my first scenario, however, because I'm guessing it will go up. The Attractor above the market is at 39,511 and above that there's one at 40,074."
This week the DOW was largely down though not by much. In fact it dropped to a low of 38,458 on Tuesday below my projection. With price delicately bouncing off the Flat DMA and even touching the Upper Inner Band (UIB) on the high of the bar, I'm looking for some more upside activity.
In looking at the Natural Numbers chart (available in the Bonus Material for subscribers only.)
Analysis
The DOW showed its hand last week by putting in a new ATH. But this week it tanked, down by 364.69 points. That's really not terribly frightening. Had it been down that much every day that might be a problem.
The market has essentially been sideways this week. Yes, it was up and down. Or should I say down and up? But it was doing its deviations in a fairly narrow range this week.
Gold is still on top, but the difference between the DMAs (histogram) is very narrow. It's Gold, but just barely. The market bounced off the DMA (Gold on top) which is a very positive sign, but it didn't do it decisively. The DMA is Flat visually and that means to me that we might test it again and then move on up. At least, that's what I'm watching for.
In all likelihood reaching 40,000 will generate a bit of congestion. And it has. On the Natural Numbers chart (in the Bonus issue only for subscribers) it has been fighting 40,000 all week. I belive we will reach it this week.
Monthly DOW
The orange Attractor I drew when price exceeded the triangle (hint: it's a trendline) is still holding. I thought we would continue upward, and we are.
Notice on this Monthly Dow chart of percentage change that we are still above the UOB and well above the Attractor at 35,111 on the Monthly.
It looks like we have finished wave 4 and are now headed for higher highs as we work on wave 5. As we get toward 40,000 we will likely continue to congest (possibly not for much longer) while attempting to get above another Natural Number.
ES (S&P 500)
DON"T FORGET: Monday is futures Roll-Over and Friday is Expiration.
@ES was down by -17.00 this week and now is sitting at 5192.50.
"The ES is above the UOB and at a new high. Gold is on top in the DMA. On the Histogram we have Gold bars above the zero-line, which we have had for a long time. There is nothing to do but hold on to the position and watch for a change of temperament."
There were a couple of weak days this week, but the overall effect was a move to a new ATH on Thursday, although it did not close at the high. This is a SunnyBands Sell Setup, but not yet a Trigger. If tomorrow closes below the UIB and red, then I'll be looking for a run down to the DMA at 5,118. Getting above 5,000 is a feat in itself and now we're complaining it's "only" 5,100.
Current SunnyBands Signals
We are in a SunnyBands Buy signal from 4,801.25 on 01/08/24. With price right now at 5,189.35 that gives us 388+ points of potential profit. At $50 per contract, that's about $19,405 of potential profits on one contract.
The ES is hangiing out between the UOB and UIB. This is usually a VERY POSITIVE sign that price will continue on up with the bands to higher heights. Of course, if price drops below the uIB then I will be interested in a short from the close of that bar, down to the DMA.
Commodities
BitCoin (BTC)
@BTC was up by 5980 this week and now is sitting at 69805.
"At this juncture I'm guessing price will continue on down to the DMA at 49,974. And then bounce."
Well that one did not work out so well. We lost a potential 2,000 points and reversed to a Buy signal.
On the Monthly chart the upper Attractor is still in effect at 72,300. Yet on the Daily chart we entered a SunnyBands Sell signal on 02/19/24 at 52,665. Price action quickly reversed this signal to a Buy and we potentially lost over 2,600 points. The Buy signal took effect at 55,290.
The subsequent Buy signal reversal is currently ahead 8,410 points.
Our previous BTC SunnyBands Buy signal was closed at 52,665 for 12,000 points of potential profit. The Sell signal closed with over 2,000 points loss. Now we are in a Buy signal from 02/26/24 at 55,290 and price is at 68,845 and climbing. That's 8,535 points in the open signal.
We entered a SunnyBands Sell signal on 02/19/24 at 52,665. Price action quickly reversed this signal to a Buy and we potentially lost over 2,600 points. The Buy signal entered at 55,290 and price is now at 63,825 for a potential 8,535 points profit.
Bitcoin is steaming ahead. Of course, every move envolves a counter-move, so it's not just straight up. Be aware of that and keep up with the signals on your SunnyBands.
The DMA is rising sharply (Slope) and Gold is on top. However, the DMA_H is showing Red and getting shorter. This tells me to watch out for a potential turn in price activity.
@CL was down by -1.96 this week and now is sitting at 78.01.
"The DMA Histogram (DMA_H) is beneath the zero-line but showing Green bars getting shorter. That also points to upward movement."
This week price continued to move on up from the Buy signal at 75.94 to its current 77.48. That's a potential profit of 1.54 per contract. This is a sign to close the current long trade. I'm going to be cautious here and say that it is entirely possible price will bounce off the now Flat DMA and bounce.
If price closes below the DMA I'm out. Otherwise SunnyBands are in a Buy signal (from 02/08/24 at 75.94.) as price closed above the DMA. Gold is on top now, but barely. It was Red for a bit and is now (in the after-hours) Gold.
Slope is now Flat at +2 degrees and yet heading up. That's positive. The DMA Histogram (DMA_H) is above the zero-line just a smidgen and in the evening session beginning to show Gold. I'm thinking we could bounce on the DMA and continue on upward.
Gold (GC)
@GC was up by 89.8 this week and now is sitting at 2185.5.
"These indicators speak "up" to me. I'm expecting price to rise to the UOB at 2,075."
This week price is not only above the DMA, with Gold on top, but Friday tore upward from the DMA to touch the UOB.
We are currently in a SunnyBands Buy signal from 02/16/24 at 2,024.1. Price is currently at 2,091 so we have about 67 points of potential profit in it.
Gold is climbing along nicely now with a new high looming large above at 2,298. How long will it take? I'm thinking it might make it sooner than most think.
Slope is rising at 52 degrees and climbing. And the DMA_H is now slightly above the zero-line and Gold. We should see some reaction to Friday's price.
These indicators speak "up" to me. I'm expecting price to rise to the UOB at 2,075.
US T-BONDS 30 yr
@US was up by 1^15 this week and now is sitting at 121^16.
"Price is currently sitting right under the Flat DMA. It will probably rise to the DMA on Monday and the indications are that it will pull back from there. However, Slope is Flat and 0.99 but has been Green and rising. That could easily speak to it breaking above the DMA MidLine and going higher."
And, this week price broke through the DMA and went on up to the UIB. From there it has retreated a bit, but I think price will touch the UOB at 122.9.
SunnyBands are sitting in a Buy signal that was issued on 02/29/24 and confirmed the next day at 119^08. Current price is at 121^13 for a potential profit of about 2 points. IF price closes above the DMA then it's a Buy signal.
Price is above the DMA, which is still Flat, but it has stalled at the UIB for the past 3 bars. There is an Attractor overhead at 125^03 and the next at 125^29. It's not likely to happen immediately, but I think we will at least make an attempt to reach up for those levels.
Higher bond prices, lower interest rates. And vice versa. The next few weeks of Fed Speak will move the market, probably both directions.
Stocks
AAPL was down by -8.93 this week and now is sitting at 170.73.
"My "into-wishing" (as Adrienne Toghraie calls it) lets me believe that AAPL will drop to the Attractor at 180.27"
And drop it has, even beyond the Attractor where it had been lingering.
SunnyBands rules would have me Short from 188.32 on 02/08/24. Price is currently at 170.73 so that's about 18 points of potential profit. The prior signal was a Buy on 02/02/24 at 185.85 which went to the entry just mentioned at 188.32 for just over 9 points of potential profit.
Price is well below the Purple DMA and yet, the DMA is trying to be Flat as the Slope is rising from far below the zero-line to turn Green. There's a long way for it to go before it crosses the zero-line to become "above" the line.
AAPL is a great stock for trading, as is TSLA. Lots of cyclical moves up and down. It's great for swing trading with the swings being about 8 - 12 days long. It's not so good at trending.
AAPL
AAPL, on the Weekly chart, is just now bumping up against the LOW. That could easily turn into a Buy signal with 2 green candles. But, on the other hand, it could be setting up a Sell signal if it drops below the LIB. There is an Attractor just beneath current price, at 166.73. That might put a stop to any further immediate downside action. If price breaks below this area, it has no Attractor below until 153.80.
AMZN was down by -2.87 this week and now is sitting at 175.35.
"Price is still rising though not as strongly. On the Monthly chart one can see that price has make new local highs, though not yet ATH. The ATH is at 175.35."
That's about what happened. Price went up the first few days of the week, followed by the Setup of a Sell signal. Not a Sell yet, but if the next candle is Red and below the UIB, then I'm becoming interested.
This week negated all the commentary by bouncing off the DMA to rise to its current price of 174.63.
The current SunnyBands signal is Long from 01/08/24 at 149.10. Right now we are at 177.87 so that means about 28 points of potential profit. The market is currently rising and is above the Attractor at 167.79.
Price is still rising though not as strongly. On the Monthly chart one can see that price has make new local highs, though not yet ATH. The ATH is at 175.35. On the Daily chart we are setting up a Sell signal, but it is not yet viable. Another Red candle will need to form below the UIB before going short. We may see this happen this coming week.
GOOGL was down by -1.73 this week and now is sitting at 135.41.
"Last time I was expecting price to drop as low as 136.46 and it dropped to 135.41 on the low this week. I think we could drop just a little more as there is a Strong Attractor at 135.57 that's calling. It might hold further downward action, but that's hard to tell. Be ready for it to move in both directions soundly."
The close on Friday was at 135.41, just millimeters above the low aforementioned.
We are in a SunnyBands Sell signal from 02/13/24 at 145.14. Today's price is 135.41. That gives us about 9 points of potential profit.
It looks like GOOGL wants to go down. But the final two days of the week set up a potential Buy signal. Remember that if Purple is on top (as it is in this chart) I only take a trade against the trend until it gets to the (probably) Flat DMA. If it then breaks the DMA and closes above it, I will go Long again. I'm very cautious near the DMA.
HUM was down by -12.68 this week and now is sitting at 339.35.
"HUM is still struggling along facing drop after drop. It has touched the Attractor at 342 twice. Now the stock could easily bounce off this price and go up to the DMA at 366. With price right now at 352.03 that would take a lot of umph to get up there, given the way it looks currently."
I still don't doubt the upward motion in the very long-term, but price is still at it's recent lows with a few pitiful attempts to rise.
I'm not ready to give up on the current Buy signal from SunnyBands. The signal came in on 01/26/24 at 361.23. With current price at 347.0 that's about 9 points of potential loss in the current trade. DMA is sloping downward, but price is now turned down from that level. The upward motion of Slope has languished, and is pretty much below the zero-line and switching back and forth between Green and Red, but I think it has some more room on the upside. Price has touched the Attractor several times and not gone below it. If it closes below the Attractor I'm out.
HUM has been drifting on down, though it has hit the Attractor at 341.95 and ever-so-slightly bounced. This isn't yet a Buy signal, but it surely aetup. Watch for the direction of the next candle and whether it passes through the DMA.
I am expecting a bounce from here, but am very cautious. Price on HUM could easily break below the Attractor at 342 and fall on downward, but I'm hoping for this to be a test of support and a rise from there.
META
META was up by 3.65 this week and now is sitting at 505.95.
"META has continued on up, had a great Gap and (though slowly) continued on up after that. Price has stayed above the Yellow boundary and is still looking positive. Price is right between the UOB and UIB. As long as it stays between them (approximately) then we are going on up. I'm still expecting to see 500 soon and then some stumbling about until traders are confident in the new support."
We have actually had a nice Up Week. Price made another ATH and continues to look like it's going upward.
We are Long from 10/30/23 in a "long-term" signal. Recent moves have only enhanced the holdings. The SunnyBands Long signal was at 302.66 and with price currently at 488.63 that's a potential 186 points of profit. Imagine that on 100 shares!
This is the configuration in which I look for an exit from the Long trade. If the next candle is also Red it will be a Sell signal, but only down to the DMA.
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META has continued on up, though stalling on Friday. This is a potential Sell signal, but not confirmed. If it goes down I'm expecting it to bounce at the DMA. If it continues on down it will likely stop at the Yellow zone at the previous gap.
MSFT
MSFT was down by -9.28 this week and now is sitting at 406.22.
"MSFT is down a bit, dipping to the DMA with Gold still on top. Usually this signals a bounce back up to the upper bands, but I'm not sure this time. If price closes below the Flat DMA then we could be going on down. Price is above the Flat DMA with Gold on top. The Red bars on the Histogram are getting shorter implying a potential down move. Further, Slope is Flat, though it's Green. It looks to me like it wants to go up again."
MSFT is still churning. It has not yet bested its ATH, but instead is churning about above the DMA, which has Gold on top. But not for long. It looks like it's about ready to cross to Purple on top.
Right now we have a profit of about 35 points per share.
MSFT is doing nothing but churning. There was a Short signal on Tuesday at 402.65 that was confirmed, but it quickly reverted to the other direction. Since price is right on the DMA and the DMA is Flat I'm not ready to take another position. I need some more information.
NVDA was up by 52.49 this week and now is sitting at 875.28.
"The SunnyBands are again on the move, with a new SunnyBands Buy signal from 02/22/24 at 785.38. Price is between the UOB and UIB which is still strong, but I'm worried about the DMA_H being right at the zero-line, however."
And on Friday we had the beginning of a Sell signal (the setup). The candle was decisively down, and broke the UOB AND UIB in one fell swoop (according to Lucy). We'll see what the next candle does. Remember that counter-trend trades are only taken to the Flat DMA.
We are currently Long. After a short venture below the DMA we were reversed to a Long signal on 02/22/24 at 785.38. Price is currently at 869.80 for a potential profit of 84 points per share!
The SunnyBands are again on the move, with a new SunnyBands Buy signal from 02/22/24 at 785.38. Price is still between the UOB and UIB which is still strong, but I'm worried about the big Red candle on Friday.
SBUX was down by -2.10 this week and now is sitting at 91.06.
"SBUX isn't feeling so good. It keeps churning around the Flat DMA. Now it's below the line but looking like there is more negativity in the outlook. I' thinking that the LIB or the LOB at 91.47 is the next target."
Right on! SBUX followed the plan and went down this week, right to the LOB at 91.06. But, we've had a couple of Green candles trying to inch up, but none of them has yet created the Buy signal I'm looking for.
We are now in a SunnyBands Sell signal from 02/26/24 at 94.28 as price closed above the DMA. However, Friday's candle was Green and wicked close to the UIB. If the next candle (Monday) closes to the LOB we are still going down; if it closes above the LIB then it will create a Buy signal.
SBUX isn't feeling so good. It keeps churning around the Flat DMA. Now it's below the line but looking like there is more negativity in the outlook. I' thinking that the LIB or the LOB at 91.47 is the next target.
TSLA was down by -27.30 this week and now is sitting at 175.34.
"SunnyBands had been sloping downward, but are now sideways in a narrow channel that spans from 181 to 211. I'm guessing it will bounce around between there for a bit. There is a lot of congestion this week, with small range bars coursing sideways. "
Last time I also mentioned that TSLA is all over the map.It can go up 100 points and then down the same amount. But, in fact, price has moved steadily downward to the LOB.
With SunnyBands, we were in a Sell signal last we spoke. Price action treated us to a move down from the Sell signal.
On the Monthly chart price is consistently below the DMA for months. This speaks to trading TSLA back and forth, but certainly not as an investment at this point.
On the Daily chart price keeps drifting downward. This week it has been pretty much flat, but the DMA is sloping down at -45 degrees. That's a sign of potential further movement downward."
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