Sunday March 17, 2024 VOLUME 8 ISSUE 12
AAPL | AMZN | BTC | DOW | CL | ES | GC | GOOGL | HUM | META | MSFT | NVDA | SBUX | TSLA | US
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Sunny Side of the Street (SSS)
The charts below are now organized first alphabetically by commodities and then alphabetically by stock symbol. It should be easier to read and find the symbol you want to take a look at.
Vantage Point Prediction
Is that up or down? It looks like both, possibly meaning a choppy day. The VP Prediction for tomorrow: High : 38,832 Low: 38,674. The predicted range for the eay is 316 points. The Moving Averages are primarily moving downward with all 3 MAVs under the zero-line. Is choppiness in store? Or we heading on down? I have an Attractor (support in
Take a look at the Monthly chart below.
Overview (DOW & ES)
DOW ($INDU)
Chart
Statistics
$INDU was down by -7.92 this week and now is sitting at 38714.77.
Last Time I Said
"The market has essentially been sideways this week. Yes, it was up and down. Or should I say down and up? But it was doing its deviations in a fairly narrow range this week."
If the selling gathers momentum then we could go below the DMA which is currently at 38,667.07, right at current price. If price closes below the DMA then we are looking at more downside action. The next Attractor below the current market is at 37,860.
In looking at the Natural Numbers chart (available in the Bonus Material for SSS subscribers only.)
Analysis
Last week the DOW tanked, down by -364.69 points. That's really not terribly frightening. Had it been down that much every day that might be a problem. But this week it was well and truly sideways ending the week only -7.92 points down.
Talk about Flat, Gold is still on top, but the difference between the DMAs (histogram) is so tight that there are no bars showing on the Histogram (DMA_H). It's Gold, but just barely. The market bounced off the DMA (Gold on top) which is a very positive sign, but it didn't do it decisively. The DMA is Flat visually and that means to me that we might test it again and then move on up. At least, that's what I'm watching for.
In all likelihood reaching 40,000 will generate a bit of congestion. And it has. On the Natural Numbers chart (in the Bonus issue only for subscribers) it has been fighting 40,000 for two weeks. I believe we will reach it this week. But after it closes at 40,000 it could take a sizeable downdraught as the inevitable profit-taking comes in.
Monthly DOW
The orange Attractor I drew when price exceeded the triangle (hint: it's a trendline) is still holding. I thought we would continue upward, and we are.
Notice on this Monthly Dow chart of percentage change that we are still above the UOB and well above the Attractor at 35,111 on the Monthly. However, the Blue %-age line has turned down and is now approaching the SunnyBands UOB from the top. It won't take much more movement to penetrate the UOB and potentially give a Sell signal. Remember, though, this is a Monthly chart, so it may take some time.
ES (S&P 500)
@ES was down by -9.75 this week and now is sitting at 5182.75.
"The ES is hangiing out between the UOB and UIB. This is usually a VERY POSITIVE sign that price will continue on up with the bands to higher heights. Of course, if price drops below the uIB then I will be interested in a short from the close of that bar, down to the DMA."
This week the ES went up in the beginning of the week but then Wednesday, Thursday and Friday were down. In fact, we crossed into a Sell signal. More about that in the Analysis section.
Current SunnyBands Signals
We are in a SunnyBands Sell signal from 5,218.0 on that occurred Wednesday and was Confirmed on Thursday. With price right now at 5,182.75 that gives us 35.25+ points of potential profit. At $50 per contract, that's about $1,762 of potential profits on one contract. HOWEVER, remember that the SunnyBands Rules say that with Gold on top we are likely only going to drop to the DMA. If tomorrow is an up day I'm out of this short.
The ES gave a SunnyBands Sell signal on Wednesday that was Confirmed on Thursday at 5,218.0. Price is currently 5182.75 at the close on Friday.
With 35 points of potential profit, I'm skeptical of this position. Slope is Red and going down, but Gold is on top. I'm watching carefully for price to wick down to the DMA which is currently at 51,42.30. If I am going short with Gold on top I put a stop in at the DMA to take profits because it often happens quickly.
Commodities
BitCoin (BTC)
@BTC was down by -640 this week and now is sitting at 69,165.
"The DMA is rising sharply (Slope) and Gold is on top. However, the DMA_H is showing Red and getting shorter. This tells me to watch out for a potential turn in price activity."
We got a SunnyBands Sell signal on Thursday with a Red candle closing below the UIB. Price is continuing to head downward.
On the Monthly chart the current candle is Blue and achieved a new ATH, only to settle back down to the close of the previous month. Price needs to further explore the highs around 72,550 again and then either fail or break through and go down.
Our previous BTC SunnyBands Buy signal was closed at 52,665 for 12,000 points of potential profit. The Sell signal closed with over 2,000 points loss. Now we are in a Buy signal from 02/26/24 at 55,290 and price is at 68,845 and climbing. That's 8,535 points in the open signal.
We entered a SunnyBands Sell signal on 02/19/24 at 52,665. Price action quickly reversed this signal to a Buy and we potentially lost over 2,600 points. The Buy signal was entered at 55,290 and closed at 68,805 for a potential profit of about 13,500.
Now we are again in a Sell signal, this time from 69,600 on Thursday. With price now at 69,165 that's about 400 points of potential profit.
The DMA is Flat-ish visually, but is still rising arithmetically. The DMA_H is continuiing to shorten as it heads for the zero-line. To me this speaks of further downside action impending. We could easily bounce off the DMA with Gold on top, or we could break below the DMA and turn Purple. I'm ready to get out of the short at any moment, because that often happens. Stops in place. If it bounces off the DMA and heads up, it is likely to head to new highs.
@CL was up by 3.03 this week and now is sitting at 80.58.
"If price closes below the DMA I'm out. Otherwise SunnyBands are in a Buy signal (from 02/08/24 at 75.94.) as price closed above the DMA. Gold is on top now, but barely. It was Red for a bit and is now (in the after-hours) Gold. I'm going to be cautious here and say that it is entirely possible price will bounce off the now Flat DMA and bounce."
This week price continued to move on up from the Buy signal at 75.94 to its current 80.58 . That's a potential profit of 4.64 points per contract. I'm going to be cautious here and say that it is entirely possible price will bounce off the now Flat DMA and bounce.
If price closes below the DMA I'm out. Otherwise SunnyBands are in a Buy signal (from 02/08/24 at 75.94.) as price wicked above the UOB. Gold is on top now, soundly. Crude price is definitely rising. With price wicking above the UOB I'm expecting price to continue on upward at least for the next few days.
The price of gasoline in my neighborhood is now back up to $5.39./gal. I saw one pump with price in $/litre. That'll make us think it's cheaper. Make the package smaller.
Slope is now rising somewhat but could go higher with price above recent highs. The Attractor overhead lies at 93.01. That's some pocket change if it goes there. If it does, it will probably get there in fits and starts, possibly even dropping to the DMA on the Monthly chart.
Gold (GC)
@GC was down by -24.0 this week and now is sitting at 2161.5.
"Gold is climbing along nicely now with a new high looming large above at 2,298. How long will it take? I'm thinking it might make it sooner than most think."
This week it didn't move as anticipated. Instead price moved downward. While it was down, it's not moving there strongly, just almost sideways. Take a look at the Analysis section.
We are currently in a SunnyBands Sell signal from Tuesday 03/12/24 at 2,166.1. Price is currently at 2,161.5 so we have about 5 points of potential profit in it.
Gold is moving, though slowly, downward. I hit a new ATH last week and it is customary to move down on profit-taking after putting in an ATH. The 23.6% Fib line lies just beneath current price. I wouldn't be surprised to see price dip lower, possibly even back down to the DMA at 2,144.6 . That would be normal. A move beyond that would cause me to be negative temporarily. I'm overall bullish on Gold.
Slope is rising at 46 degrees and climbing. And the DMA_H is now Red and moving down. That's negative.
US T-BONDS 30 yr
@US was down by -2^25 this week and now is sitting at 118^23.
"Price is above the DMA, which is still Flat, but it has stalled at the UIB for the past 3 bars. There is an Attractor overhead at 125^03 and the next at 125^29. It's not likely to happen immediately, but I think we will at least make an attempt to reach up for those levels."
And, this week price broke below the DMA and went on down to the LIB. Now we need to know whether it will drop all the way to the LOB. I'm thinking it will. That price is 117^22 and we are now at 118^23. That's a bit of pocket change if it happens.
Price not only didn't close above the DMA it went on down, closing beneath the UIB on Monday for a Sell signal from 121^13.
I'm still watching for bond prices to go lower as we await the latest news from the Fed. As I've said before in previous issues, I take Jay Powell at his word: until inflation gets to 2% Fed rates will not go down. If he says so this next week it could easily cause the market to go down.
Higher bond prices, lower interest rates. And vice versa. The next few weeks of Fed Speak will move the market, probably both directions.
Stocks
AAPL was up by 1.89 this week and now is sitting at 172.62.
"...it could be setting up a Sell signal if it drops below the LIB. There is an Attractor just beneath current price, at 166.73."
But, Monday set up a Buy signal which was confirmed on Tuesday. Price is making its way up to the DMA.
SunnyBands rules now have me in a Buy signal from 03/08/24 at 170.73. Price is now at 172.62 for a couple of points of potential profit.
AAPL is a great stock for trading, as is TSLA. Lots of cyclical moves up and down. It's great for swing trading with the swings being about 8 - 12 days long. It's not so good at trending.
AAPL, on the Weekly chart, is well below the DMA, which is now Sloping downward at -34 degrees. There is an Attractor below at 164.37 which is where we will likely go next, or at least wick down there to touch the LOB at 168.54. It looks like we could easily get there.
AMZN was down by -0.93 this week and now is sitting at 174.42.
"Price is still rising though not as strongly. On the Monthly chart one can see that price has make new local highs, though not yet ATH. The ATH is at 175.35. On the Daily chart we are setting up a Sell signal, but it is not yet viable. Another Red candle will need to form below the UIB before going short. We may see this happen this coming week."
But it hasn't happened yet. Price is moving along sideways, though it hasn't yet set up a real sell signal.
The current SunnyBands signal is Long from 03/08/24 at 135.41. Right now we are at 174.42 so that means about 25 points of potential profit. The market is currently slowly rising and is above the Attractor that's at 167.79.
We are currently at 174.42 and still in a Buy signal. We have had several Sell setups but with Gold on top and rising, it's a no-go. It looks to be turning to Flat which could behave in one of two ways. The most likely scenario would be for price to bounce off the DMA and go merrily back on its way up. The alternative is for a candle to cross below the DMA and head down for the 21-day MAV which is coincident with the LIB at 171.91. Actually, I'm betting on Sideways for right now.
GOOGL was up by 5.77 this week and now is sitting at 141.18.
"It looks like GOOGL wants to go down. But the final two days of the week set up a potential Buy signal."
The close on Friday was at 135.41, just millimeters above the low aforementioned.
We are in a SunnyBands Sell signal from 02/13/24 at 145.14. Today's price is 135.41. That gives us about 9 points of potential profit.
It looks like GOOGL wants to go down. But the final two days of the week set up a potential Buy signal. Remember that if Purple is on top (as it is in this chart) I only take a trade against the trend until it gets to the (probably) Flat DMA. If it then breaks the DMA and closes above it, I will go Long again. I'm very cautious near the DMA.
HUM was up by 8.80 this week and now is sitting at 348.15.
"I think it has some more room on the upside. Price has touched the Attractor several times and not gone below it. If it closes below the Attractor I'm out."
The attempts at rising are basically very weak. Yes, it has risen since the signal but not much.
We are currently in a Buy signal with HUM. It is making very small moves, but nevertheless upward. The DMA is Flat, but rising. The Who's On Top dots are Lavendar, not Purple.
The Buy signal was on 03/11/24 at 347.00 and now price is at 348.15. That gives us xx points of potential profit.
HUM has been drifting on down, though it has hit the Attractor at 341.95 and ever-so-slightly bounced. This isn't yet a Buy signal, but it surely aetup. Watch for the direction of the next candle and whether it passes through the DMA.
I am expecting a bounce from here, but am very cautious. Price on HUM could easily break below the Attractor at 342 and fall on downward, but I'm hoping for this to be a test of support and a rise from there.
META
META was down by -21.85 this week and now is sitting at 484.10.
"META has continued on up, though stalling on Friday. This is a potential Sell signal, but not confirmed. If it goes down I'm expecting it to bounce at the DMA. If it continues on down it will likely stop at the Yellow zone at the previous gap."
We have had a consolidation week, with price just banging up against the Flat DMA. However, it has not gone down. It is still above the DMA.
We are Long from 10/30/23 in a "long-term" signal. Recent moves have only enhanced the holdings. The SunnyBands Long signal was at 302.66 and with price currently at 484.10 that's a potential 181 points of profit. Imagine that on 100 shares!
This is the configuration in which I look for an exit from the Long trade. If the next candle is Red and closes beneath the DMA then I'll reverse to a Short stance. I'm expecting this consolidation above the DMA is a sign of strength and we will once again rise to new highs.
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META has spent the last two weeks in congestion. It has gone neither up nor down, in a very tight configuration. We have a big gap from 02/01/24 that hasn't been filled. That's a bit scary. The Sell signal was confirmed on 03/11/24 at 483.59. It's a valid sell signal, but only down to the DMA at this point. And it's there already. So, in my book, there's no trade until price closes below the DMA at 484.78.
MSFT
MSFT was up by 10.20 this week and now is sitting at 416.42.
"MSFT is doing nothing but churning. There was a Short signal on Tuesday at 402.65 that was confirmed, but it quickly reverted to the other direction. Since price is right on the DMA and the DMA is Flat I'm not ready to take another position. I need some more information. "
But this week we have had movement to the upside and a new ATH on Thursday at 427.82.
Right now we have a profit of about 35 points per share.
We are in a Long signal from 01/09/24 at 375.79. With current price at 416.42 that's about 40 points of potential profit.
MSFT moved up nicely this week, generating a new ATH. And then, as is typical, there was profit-taking and MSFT moved back down. I don't think it is over; I still think as AI excitement continues MSFT will continue to profit. On the Weekly chart it appears price has some more room on the upside. Price is right at the UIB and the UOB lies at 427.99. That would be a nice move up. For the most-part price is staying with the UOB and above the Gold DMA. It is also above all 3 MAVs and steadily climbing. I have 30% profit in this trade so far.
NVDA was up by 3.09 this week and now is sitting at 878.37.
"The SunnyBands are again on the move, with a new SunnyBands Buy signal from 02/22/24 at 785.38. Price is still between the UOB and UIB which is still strong, but I'm worried about the big Red candle on Friday."
And on Friday we had the beginning of a Sell signal (the setup). The candle was decisively down, and broke the UOB AND UIB in one swell foop (according to Lucy Ricardo). We'll see what the next candle does. Remember that counter-trend trades are only taken to the Flat DMA.
We are currently Long. After a short venture below the DMA we were reversed to a Long signal on 02/22/24 at 785.38. Price is currently at 878.37 for a potential profit of 93 points per share!
The SunnyBands are again on the move, with a new SunnyBands Buy signal from 02/22/24 at 785.38. Price is still between the UOB and UIB which is still strong, but I'm worried about the big Red candle on Friday. Since that big candle we have had strictly sideways activity. That's reminiscent of up moves o follow. And that's what I think is happening next.
SBUX was down by -0.94 this week and now is sitting at 90.12.
"SBUX isn't feeling so good. It keeps churning around the Flat DMA. Now it's below the line but looking like there is more negativity in the outlook. I' m thinking that the LIB or the LOB at 91.47 is the next target."
Right on! SBUX followed the plan and went down this week, right to the LOB at 91.06. But, we've had a couple of Green candles trying to inch up, but none of them has yet created the Buy signal I'm looking for.
We are still in a Sell signal from way back, in November 2023. This sell is still productive and in fact is below the Yellow rectangle I've drawn on the chart. The Sell price was 104.30 on 11/20/23. Price is now at 90.12 for a 14 point potential profit.
SBUX isn't feeling so good. It keeps churning around the Flat DMA. Now it's below the line but looking like there is more negativity in the outlook. I'm thinking that the LIB or the LOB at 90.11 is the next target.
TSLA was down by -11.77 this week and now is sitting at 163.57.
"On the Daily chart price keeps drifting downward. This week it has been pretty much flat, but the DMA is sloping down at -45 degrees. That's a sign of potential further movement downward."
Last time I also mentioned that TSLA is all over the map.It can go up 100 points and then down the same amount. But, in fact, price has moved steadily downward to the LOB.
With SunnyBands, we were in a Sell signal last we spoke. Price action treated us to a move down from the Sell signal. We are still in a Sell signal with price moving on down.
On the Monthly chart price is consistently below the DMA for months. This speaks to trading TSLA back and forth, but certainly not as an investment at this point.
On the Daily chart price keeps drifting downward. This week it has been down further and is well below the Yellow rectangle showing previous price containment. The DMA_H is below the zero-line indicating further downside movement. However, Slope is positive and Green and getting very close to the zero-line. That could easily indicate impending price movement in the up direction. Purple is on top and I'm thinking price will initially move up to the DMA at 179.92. We shall see.
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