Sunday March 24, 2024 VOLUME 8 ISSUE 13
AAPL | AMZN | BTC | DOW | CL | ES | GC | GOOGL | HUM | META | MSFT | NVDA | SBUX | TSLA | US
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Sunny Side of the Street (SSS)
The charts below are now organized first alphabetically by commodities and then alphabetically by stock symbol. It should be easier to read and find the symbol you want to take a look at.
Vantage Point Prediction
This prediction is clearly down. The prediction from Ths for Fri was to have been up. Of course, you don't see this on my weekly predictions. That's enough reason to get VantagePoint for your own. Their predictions have been rated at 82% correct. The prediction for Monday is clearly down after Friday's 300+ point down day.
The moving averages look ominous. THe short-term MAV took a sharp turn downward to cross both longer MAVs. The medium-term also turned sharply down through the long-term.
Sharp moves like that in the MAVs have, in the recent past, led to more moves upward on this chart. Always be asking "what is true?
Take a look at the Monthly chart below.
Overview (DOW & ES)
DOW ($INDU)
Chart
Statistics
$INDU was up by 761.13 this week and now is sitting at 39475.90.
Last Time I Said
"Last week the DOW tanked, down by -364.69 points. That's really not terribly frightening. Had it been down that much every day that might be a problem. But this week it was well and truly sideways ending the week only -7.92 points down."
That was telling! That told me that the market had further movement on the upside yet to come. And up it went, by +761.13 points this week. Only Friday put in a bad showing.
In looking at the Natural Numbers chart (available in the Bonus Material for SSS subscribers only.)
Analysis
The week was up +761.13 points with only Friday showing some weakness as price approached the 40,000 barrier. On Thursday we had a high of 39,889.05 which in relative terms is jus pennies away from the goal.
I do think we will at least reach up an touch the 40k level this week. Whether we stay at that level is another issue. Typi cally new ATH and Natural Number barriers are broken and then experience profi- taking before the up move resumes.
This week we have some FOMC members speaking, New Home Sales, Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence coming out that could each affect the direction of the market. Again, it's all fear and greed, so it could go either way.
In all likelihood reaching 40,000 will generate a bit of congestion. And it has. On the Natural Numbers chart (in the Bonus issue only for subscribers) it has been fighting 40,000 for two weeks. I believe we will reach it this next week. But after it closes at 40,000 it could take a sizeable downdraught as the inevitable profit-taking comes in.
Monthly DOW
The orange Attractor I drew when price exceeded the triangle (hint: it's a trendline) is still holding. The Monthly chart looks to me like we have quite a bit farther up to go. The next Fib line on this chart lies overhead at 41,340! That's a 23.6% extension as I see it.
ES (S&P 500)
@ES was up by 110.50 this week and now is sitting at 5293.25.
"With 35 points of potential profit, I'm skeptical of [short] this position. Slope is Red and going down, but Gold is on top. I'm watching carefully for price to wick down to the DMA which is currently at 51,42.30. If I am going short with Gold on top I put a stop in at the DMA to take profits because it often happens quickly."
And, as it happens, the short signal wicked down alright but not quite to the DMA. Ir's marked in gray since I don't like to take shorts when Gold is on top and Slope is positive. So, I sat through it and now we are up even farther.
Current SunnyBands Signals
We are in a SunnyBands Buy signal that was not overridden by the Sell signal (not taken bc Gold was still on top). That signal started on 01/05/24 at 4,798.25. We closed on Friday at 5,293.25. That gives us 495 points of potential profit. The next Natural Number is at 5,300 which is not far to move, just 7 points.
Last week the ES gave a SunnyBands Sell signal on Wednesday that was Confirmed on Thursday at 5,218.0. It was not taken because Gold is on top and Slope is positive. Thus this week we are still in the Buy signal and holding.
The Weekly chart gives us more information than the Daily. On the Daily we are just pushing up the top of the chart. On the Weekly it shows us that we have been moving steadily upward since 11/03/23 with few breaks. Nothing yet shows that we are about to take a break.
I hope it's not just my own irrational exhuberance, but I still think we are going up.
On the Monthly chart the configuration is different. It shows that it is just the last 2 months that have finally appeared above the ATH in January 2022. Instead of a blowoff, it looks like we are finally recovering.
Here's an intereting view: a Yearly chart of the SPY with SunnyBands and DMA_H on MetaStock:
With this view it seems that we have just gone sideways for the last two years and are just now beginning to climb out of the muck. To me it does not yet show irrational exhuberance.
Commodities
BitCoin (BTC)
@BTC was down by -5190 this week and now is sitting at 63975.
"The DMA is visually Flat with price right underneath it. Gold is on top but tentatively. On the DMA_H bars are Red and getting shorter. Slope is negative and Red. All taken together this picture suggests we have more room on the downside."
And, indeed, it has continued to move downward for most of the last weeks
We are still in a Sell signal, from 69,600 on 03/14/24. With price now at 63,600 that's about 6,000 points of potential profit.
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The DMA is visually Flat with price right underneath it. Gold is on top but tentatively. On the DMA_H bars are Red and getting shorter. Slope is negative and Red. All taken together this picture suggests we have more room on the downside.
The LIB lies below at 60,325 and the LOB at 56,468. That speaks to more action on the downside. Au contraire, price is at the 23.6% Fib line which could contain further downdraughts. If not, then the next Fib line below is at 57,689. If wishes were horses... then I'd like to see BTC move on up to higher ground.
@CL was up by 0.05 this week and now is sitting at 80.63.
"If price closes below the DMA I'm out. Otherwise SunnyBands are in a Buy signal (from 02/08/24 at 75.94.)"
It didn't close below the DMA. Price just continued to rise as sabres rattled in the Middle East and Ukraine.
SunnyBands are in a Buy signal (from 02/08/24 at 75.94.) as price wicked above the UOB. Gold is on top, soundly. Crude price is definitely rising. The last 3 days of the week we encountered a snooze with price dropping below the UOB in a Sell signal. I'm not acting on it yet as the DMA is Gold on top and rising. However, I am keeping my finger on the trigger as this could drop below the DMA and I'd want to sell at that point.
The price of gasoline in my neighborhood is now back up to $5.39./gal. I saw one pump with price in $/litre. That'll make us think it's cheaper. Make the package smaller.
Slope is red and falling but still (just barely) above the zero-line. Price fell 3 out of 5 days this week landing at the UIB. The gentle motion of the ups and downs speaks to me of cyclical action that could be (a) over, or (b) going on down to the DMA. But the DMA Slope is still positive and Gold is on top.
Gold (GC)
@GC was down by -1.5 this week and now is sitting at 2160.0.
"Gold is moving, though slowly, downward. It hit a new ATH last week and it is customary to move down on profit-taking after putting in an ATH. The 23.6% Fib line lies just beneath current price. I wouldn't be surprised to see price dip lower, possibly even back down to the DMA at 2,144.6 . That would be normal. A move beyond that would cause me to be negative temporarily. I'm overall bullish on Gold."
This week price moved violently sideways with new highs and retreats followed by more new highs and more retreats. Price dropped to 2,149.2 which almost to the DMA, but not quite. Pretty good call if I do say so myself.
We are currently in a SunnyBands Sell signal from Tuesday 03/12/24 at 2,166.1. Price is currently at 2,160 so we have about 6 points of potential profit in it. NOTE: The DMA Slope is flattening and the DMA_H is Red and diminishing. Slope is positive but going down.
To get more information I brought up the Weekly chart, but it didn't
To get more information I brought up the Weekly chart, but it didn't tell me much. It too looks sideways. So I backed out to the Monthly, which shows SunnyBands moving sideways for years. The clue, however, is on this chart. Price over the years has moved back and forth between the bands. Now it is below the UOB although it did wick up to it.
That tells me to expect price to try again to touch the UOB and then probably go lower, on down to the LIB at 1,856. I don't like the sound of that since I'm long Gold, but that's what it reads.
US T-BONDS 30 yr
@US was up by 1^02 this week and now is sitting at 119^25.
"I'm still watching for bond prices to go lower as we await the latest news from the Fed. As I've said before in previous issues, I take Jay Powell at his word: until inflation gets to 2% Fed rates will not go down. If he says so this next week it could easily cause the market to go down."
The bond market moved down all last week in anticipation of the news. Then it started climbing and when Jay said no easing, but possibly easing rates later in the year the market got excited and climbed to a high of 120^05.
We are in a Sell signal from 121^13 on 03/11/24. Price is currently at 119^31 for a couple of points of potential profit.
This Sell signal is right at the Flat DMA. That's dangerous. Price has bounced off the LOB but price had already wicked up to the DMA where Purple is on top. Now it looks like we could use a bit of news to fall or rally. We are in a precarious position where Slope is negative, the DMA_H is under the zero-line but getting shorter. The DMA is Purple on top. All of this points to lower prices. BUT, I'm skeptical. To me it looks like we will at least poke around down at the 117^12 level where a strong Attractor lies.
Stocks
AAPL was down by -0.34 this week and now is sitting at 172.28.
"AAPL, on the Weekly chart, is well below the DMA, which is now Sloping downward at -34 degrees. There is an Attractor below at 164.37 which is where we will likely go next, or at least wick down there to touch the LOB at 168.54. It looks like we could easily get there."
But, Monday set up a Buy signal which was confirmed on Tuesday. Price is making its way up to the DMA.
SunnyBands rules now have me in a Sell signal from 03/21/24 at 174.81. Price is now at 172.29 for a couple of points of potential profit.
AAPL is a great stock for trading, as is TSLA. Lots of cyclical moves up and down. It's great for swing trading with the swings being about 8 - 12 days long. It's not so good at trending.
We have conflicting signals: Purple is on top in the DMA, Slope is below the zero-line and no longer Flat. Price is at the LIB. All this adds up to more downward movement, probably to the LOB at 167. That would be another 5 points down. But I say conflicting because on the Weekly we have a Buy setup that could easily take us up to 183.
AAPL, on the Weekly chart, is well below the DMA, which is now Sloping downward at -34 degrees. There is an Attractor below at 164.37 which is where we will likely go next, or at least wick down there to touch the LOB at 168.54. It looks like we could easily get there.
AMZN was up by 4.45 this week and now is sitting at 178.87.
"We are currently at 174.42 and still in a Buy signal. We have had several Sell setups but with Gold on top and rising, it's a no-go."
Are we moving sideways or up? It's difficult to tell. Arithmetically it's up, but it is doing it inch by inch staying above the Gold DMA.
The current SunnyBands signal is Long from 03/08/24 at 135.41. Right now we are at 178.84 so that means about 43 points of potential profit. The market is currently slowly rising and is above the Attractor that's at 167.79.
We have been in this Buy signal for a long time, raking in the potential profits. Price continues to climb toward the Attractor overhead at 188.35, which was the ATH of 188.65. Expect that when it gets there we will experience profit-taking.
The DMA_H is Red and getting shorter (negative). Slope is above the zero-line but fallling (negative). It wouldn't take much to have this thing moving down to the DMA which is currently at 165. Be on your toes! It could just as easily power right up to the UOB at 183.84.
GOOGL was up by 9.59 this week and now is sitting at 150.77.
"It looks like GOOGL wants to go down. But the final two days of the week set up a potential Buy signal. Remember that if Purple is on top (as it is in this chart) I only take a trade against the trend until it gets to the (probably) Flat DMA. If it then breaks the DMA and closes above it, I will go Long again. I'm very cautious near the DMA."
The close on Friday before this was at 150.66, just millimeters above the low aforementioned.
We are in a SunnyBands Buy signal from 03/08/24 at 135.41. Today's price is 150.66. That gives us about 15 points of potential profit.
The ATH on GOOGL is 153.78 from 01/29/24, 38 bars ago. We are almost at that level again with price currently at 150.66 leaving only 3+ points to break it.
Gold is on top and Slope is at 23 degrees. We have Gold bars on the DMA_H, all of which are positive signs. Price is right at the UOB after a 6 point Gap on Monday.
If I had to guess here, I would say that GOOGL is going to best the ATH and move on up to 170. I say that by looking at the Fibonacci extensions on the down move from 2022. The first extension is at the 123.6% level and is right at 170.
Full disclosure: I have a large holding in GOOGL.
HUM was up by 0.39 this week and now is sitting at 348.54.
"HUM has been drifting on down, though it has hit the Attractor at 341.95 and ever-so-slightly bounced. This isn't yet a Buy signal, but it's surely a setup. Watch for the direction of the next candle and whether it passes through the DMA."
The attempts at rising are basically very weak. Yes, it has risen since the signal but not much.
We are currently in a Buy signal with HUM. It is making very small moves, but nevertheless upward. The DMA is Flat, but rising and is poised to move above the zero-line this week (turn Gold). The Who's On Top dots are Lavendar, not Purple. This tells me the DMA is Flat and very close together.
The Buy signal was on 03/11/24 at 347.00 and now price is at 348.15. That gives us 1 point of potential profit.
Humana is apparently fearful of stepping up and showing its hand. Price has been sharply sideways since the Buy setup on 03/11/24 at 347.0.
I am expecting a bounce from here, but am very cautious. Price on HUM could easily break below the Attractor at 342 and fall on downward, but I'm hoping for this to be a test of support and a rise from there.
META
META was up by 25.48 this week and now is sitting at 509.58.
"META has spent the last two weeks in congestion. It has gone neither up nor down, in a very tight configuration. We have a big gap from 02/01/24 that hasn't been filled. That's a bit scary. The Sell signal was confirmed on 03/11/24 at 483.59. It's a valid sell signal, but only down to the DMA at this point. And it's there already. So, in my book, there's no trade until price closes below the DMA at 484.78."
The trade then happened as price bounced off the DMA on Monday and continuing on up.
We had a consolidation week, with price just banging up against the Flat DMA the prior week. But this week price bounced off the DMA and went up to the UOB. Caveat: the SunnyBands are squeezing which speaks to impending movement.
We are Long from 10/30/23 in a "long-term" signal. Recent moves have only enhanced the holdings. The SunnyBands Long signal was at 302.66 and with price currently at 508.95 that's a potential 206 points of profit. Imagine that on 100 shares!
This is the configuration in which I begin to look for an exit from the Long trade. If the next candle is Red and closes beneath the DMA then I'll reverse to a Short stance. But I'm expecting this consolidation above the DMA is a sign of strength and we will once again rise to new highs.
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On the Weekly chart it looks like META has more room on the upside. We are sitting on top of a strong Attractor at 487.50 and are below the UOB and UIB.
The ATH was at 523.57 just 10 days ago. If we reach for that then at the same time we are reaching for the UOB. I think we will make it despite warning signs to the contrary.
Slope is positive at 42 degrees and still Green, though the acceleration has diminished slightly. The DMA_H is showing Green below the zero-line and is getting shorter, which is positive. And, we are above the 80 point bar that occurred the week of 02/02/24 and using it as support. We are also above all 3 MAVs. All this taken together is a strong Bullish picture.
MSFT
MSFT was up by 12.32 this week and now is sitting at 428.74.
"MSFT moved up nicely this week, generating a new ATH. And then, as is typical, there was profit-taking and MSFT moved back down. I don't think it is over; I still think as AI excitement continues MSFT will continue to profit."
And this week we have had movement to the upside and a new ATH on Thursday at 430.82. It would appear that it is indeed, not over.
Right now we have a potential profit of about 53 points per share.
We are in a Long signal from 01/09/24 at 375.79. With current price at 428.50 that's about 53 points of potential profit.
MSFT moved up nicely last week, generating a new ATH. And then, as is typical, there was profit-taking and MSFT moved back down. In a show of strength price didn't even get down to the DMA (Gold on top) -- it didn't even wick down there. From the opening of the gates until the end of the week, MSFT moved up, gaining over 12 points this week.
I think we are in for more. The next Attractor above is at a Fib line that lies at 440.81. That's 12.31 more points to the upside if it happens.
NVDA was up by 64.52 this week and now is sitting at 942.89.
"The SunnyBands are again on the move, with a new SunnyBands Buy signal from 02/22/24 at 785.38. Price is still between the UOB and UIB which is still strong, but I'm worried about the big Red candle on Friday."
And on Friday we had the beginning of a Sell signal (the setup). The candle was decisively down, and broke the UOB AND UIB in one swell foop (according to Lucy Ricardo). We'll see what the next candle does. Remember that counter-trend trades are only taken to the Flat DMA.
We are currently Long. After a short venture below the DMA we were reversed to a Long signal on 02/22/24 at 785.38. Price is currently at 940.20 for a potential profit of 155 points per share!
The SunnyBands are again on the move, with a new SunnyBands Buy signal from 02/22/24 at 785.38. Price is still between the UOB and UIB which is still strong. Last week it took a tumble that was of concern, but managed to pull out a smooth landing before hitting the DMA. Gold has been on top since 11/08/23. That's a long run. And a lot of profit.
Now, with some amazement at my own equations, Slope is still a positive 77 degrees and Green but Purple is on top in the DMA even though we are still moving up. The SunnyBands are squeezing. That usually means an impending sizeable move. I'm guessing it will try to complete the move to the previous ATH at 974.0. That's 30 more points.
SBUX was up by 0.59 this week and now is sitting at 90.71.
"SBUX isn't feeling so good. It keeps churning around the Flat DMA. Now it's below the line but looking like there is more negativity in the outlook. I'm thinking that the LIB or the LOB at 90.11 is the next target."
Right on! SBUX followed the plan and went down to 90.06. Can't get much closer than that!
We are still in a Sell signal from way back in November 2023. This sell is still productive. The Sell price was 104.30 on 11/20/23. Price is now at 90.76 for a ~13.5 point potential profit.
Interestingly, while Purple is on top and Slope is Flat the DMA_H is trying to move up to the zero-line.
That's one positive light in the tunnel but it's too soon to say that SBUX is going up. If it closes above the DMA I'm going to load up.
TSLA was up by 7.26 this week and now is sitting at 170.83.
"The DMA_H is below the zero-line indicating further downside movement. However, Slope is positive and Green and getting very close to the zero-line. That could easily indicate impending price movement in the up direction. Purple is on top and I'm thinking price will initially move up to the DMA at 179.92."
That was darn close. We got to 178.18, which by that time was indeed the DMA (which had moved down a bit during the week).
Last time I also mentioned that TSLA is all over the map. It can go up 100 points and then down the same amount. But, in fact, price has moved steadily downward to the LOB.
With SunnyBands, we were in a Sell signal last we spoke. Price action treated us to a move down from the Sell signal. We are still in a Sell signal with price trending on down in fits and starts.
On the Monthly chart price is consistently below the DMA for months. This speaks to trading TSLA back and forth, but certainly not as an investment at this point.
On the Daily chart price keeps drifting downward. This week it has been down farther and is well below the Yellow rectangle showing previous price containment. The DMA_H is below the zero-line indicating further downside movement. However, Slope is positive and Green and getting very close to the zero-line. That could easily indicate impending price movement in the up direction. Purple is on top and I'm thinking price will next take us on a ride down and up, but not necessarily in that order. The DMA is Flat with Purple on top which certainly doesn't speak to recovery yet.
On the Monthly chart the picture is pretty clear. The formation isn't exact, but it is reminescent of a large Head & Shoulders pattern. And the Linear Regression Channel on the right side of the chart shows how easily price could move on down.
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WHAT ARE YOU MISSING?
Several features of Sunny Side of the Street are missing from previous issues. Natural Numbers, Scan of Stocks, DMA_H RS, PHW Scan, and more. What would you like to see me bring back? Comments.
HAPPY HALF HOUR! We will have the next HHH on Monday March 4th at 1:15pm PT. Sam Tennis and I will be hosting the Next Free Networking Event for all Traders new and old to join in the discussion and "get to know each other" event. It's a great place to make new friends. Sign Up Here. This Free meeting of like minds will be held once a month, on the 4th of each month. We all have a great time and share liberally on the 4th of evey month. It's a lot of fun! Don't miss it next time. Click HERE to join us. You must be registered to get the invitation and link.
Free Live Demo Replay available Here.
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FREE 7-Day Trial of Sunny's Most Powerful Indicators. Click Here. You have 7 (calendar) days to use it' full functionality and learn! I can only take 20 trials per month and all start on a Monday. Get your request in early.
EasyLanguage Forum Want to learn EasyLanguage (EZL) the EASY way? Here is the REPLAY (with video and slides). 5 1-hr lessons will take you through all the steps with Sunny Harris and Sam Tennis.
FREE 7-day Trial of Sunny's most Powerful trading indicators. Not sure about buying them? Take the trial. Most make enough during the Free Trial to cover the investment.
The Definitive Guide to TradeStation's EasyLanguage & OOEL Programming--Vol I: Programming Guide and Vol II: Reference Guide NOW AVAILABLE on Amazon.com. Go to www.easylanguageooel.com, register as a Free Member and I'll send your FREE indicators ith your proof of purchase
