Sunday March 31, 2024 VOLUME 8 ISSUE 14
AAPL | AMZN | BTC | DOW | CL | ES | GC | GOOGL | HUM | META | MSFT | NVDA | SBUX | TSLA | US
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Sunny Side of the Street (SSS)
The charts below are now organized first alphabetically by commodities and then alphabetically by stock symbol. It should be easier to read and find the symbol you want to take a look at.
Vantage Point Prediction
This prediction is clearly more to the up side. The prediction from Ths for Fri was to have been up. Of course, you don't see this on my weekly predictions. That's enough reason to get VantagePoint for your own. Their predictions have been rated at 82% correct. The prediction for Monday is clearly up after Thursday's narrow day. THis prediction shows us up to a new ATH at 40,013 with a predicted low of 39.788.
The moving averages look exciting and clearly up . All 3 MAVs are up and strongly above the zero-line.
Sharp moves like that in the MAVs have, in the recent past, led to more moves upward on this chart. Always be asking "what is true?
Take a look at the Monthly chart below.
Overview (DOW & ES)
DOW ($INDU)
Chart
Statistics
$INDU was up by 331.47 this week and now is sitting at 39807.37.
Last Time I Said
"The week was up +761.13 points with only Friday showing some weakness as price approached the 40,000 barrier. On Thursday we had a high of 39,889.05 which in relative terms is jus pennies away from the goal.
I do think we will at least reach up an touch the 40k level this week.
And it continues on upward. This week we were up to 39,807, but not yet another ATH. We are close.
In looking at the Natural Numbers chart (available in the Bonus Material for SSS subscribers only.) we see that 40,000 is next.
Analysis
The week was up +331.47 points with the middle of the week being weak and ending strong, as price approached the 40,000 barrier again. On Friday we had a high of 39,868 which in relative terms is jus pennies away from the goal.
I do think we will at least reach up an touch the 40k level this week. Whether we stay at that level is another issue. Typically new ATH and Natural Number barriers are broken and then experience profi- taking before the up move resumes.
This week we have PMI, Construction Spending, Job Openings, Factory Orders, Vehicle Sales and a few FOMC Members speaking. Again, it's all fear and greed, so it could go either way.
In all likelihood reaching 40,000 will generate a bit of congestion. And it has. On the Natural Numbers chart (in the Bonus issue only for subscribers) it has been fighting 40,000 for two weeks. I believe we will reach it this next week. But after it closes at 40,000 it could take a sizeable downdraught as the inevitable profit-taking comes in.
Monthly DOW
The orange Attractor I drew when price exceeded the triangle (hint: it's a trendline) is still holding. The Monthly chart looks to me like we have quite a bit farther up to go. The next Fib line on this chart lies overhead at 41,340! That's a 23.6% extension as I see it.
ES (S&P 500)
@ES was up by 15.25 this week and now is sitting at 5308.50.
"Last week the ES gave a SunnyBands Sell signal on Wednesday that was Confirmed on Thursday at 5,218.0. It was not taken because Gold is on top and Slope is positive. Thus this week we are still in the Buy signal and holding."
And, as it happens, price was weak in the first part of the week and then put in a strong finish, just missing the ATH on Friday by a few cents.
Current SunnyBands Signals
We are in a SunnyBands Buy signal from 4,865 on 01/08/24 that was not overridden by the Sell signal (not taken bc Gold was still on top). That signal started on 01/05/24 at 4,798.25. We closed on Friday at 5308.50. That gives us 439 points of potential profit. The next Natural Number is at 5,400.
Last week the ES gave a SunnyBands Sell signal on Wednesday that was Confirmed on Thursday at 5,218.0. It was not taken because Gold is on top and Slope is positive. Thus this week we are still in the Buy signal and holding.
The Weekly chart gives us more information than the Daily. On the Daily we are just pushing up the top of the chart. On the Weekly it shows us that we have been moving steadily upward since 11/03/23 with few breaks. Nothing yet shows that we are about to take a break.
I hope it's not just my own irrational exhuberance, but I still think we are going up.
On the Monthly chart the configuration is different. It shows that it is just the last 2 months that have finally appeared above the ATH in January 2022. Instead of a blowoff, it looks like we are finally recovering.
Commodities
BitCoin (BTC)
@BTC was up by 6785 this week and now is sitting at 71530.
"The DMA is visually Flat with price right underneath it. Gold is on top but tentatively. On the DMA_H bars are Red and getting shorter. Slope is negative and Red. All taken together this picture suggests we have more room on the downside."
And, indeed, it has continued to move downward for most of the last week.
We are now in a Buy signal, from 71,900 on 03/25/24. With price now at 71,920 that's about 20 points of potential profit.
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The DMA is visually Flat with price right underneath it. Gold is on top but tentatively. On the DMA_H bars are Red and getting shorter. Slope is negative and Red. All taken together this picture suggests we have more room on the downside.
BUT, on the chart you'll see two orange trendlines that form a triangle (wedge or pennant). Price is congested right in that are and hasn't yet broken out.
Price is above all 3 MAVs, showing strength. I wouldn't be surpirsed this week to see price pop above the Attractor and move on up.
The LIB lies below at 62,391 and the LOB at 58,870. That speaks to more action on the downside. Au contraire, price is at the 23.6% Fib line which could contain further downdraughts. If not, then the next Fib line below is at 57,689. If wishes were horses... then I'd like to see BTC move on up to higher ground.
@CL was up by 2.54 this week and now is sitting at 83.17.
"DMA Slope is still positive and Gold is on top."
And price has continued on up.. We are above the UOB with Gold on top and Slope positive.
SunnyBands are in a Buy signal (from 02/08/24 at 75.94.) as price wicked above the UOB. Gold is on top, soundly. Crude price is definitely rising. Three days out of five price rose and is now above the UOB and climbing. Currently price is at 83.08 for a potential profit over 7 points.
The price of gasoline in my neighborhood is now back up to $5.39./gal. I saw one pump with price in $/litre. That'll make us think it's cheaper. Make the package smaller.
Slope is Green and rising and is now at 12 degrees and rising. Nothing on this chart says Down to me. It looks like price will riseto about 86 before it considers slowing.
Gold (GC)
@GC was up by 56.6 this week and now is sitting at 2238.4.
"That tells me to expect price to try again to touch the UOB and then probably go lower, on down to the LIB at 1,856. I don't like the sound of that since I'm long Gold, but that's what it reads."
This week price moved up above the UIB and looks like it will break the Attractor and move on up.
We had a quick Sell signal last week that went right to the DMA, which was the profit-taking level. Now we are back in a Buy signal from 2,198.2 and in the after-hours session we are strongly up another 23 points to 2,261,9.
Price is moving on upward and is now right at the UOB at 2,262. In 2022 we had a high that wicked up to 2,275.5.. Now all we need to do is break this ATH. I'm looking for Gold at 2,300.
US T-BONDS 30 yr
@US was up by 0^21 this week and now is sitting at 120^14.
"I'm still watching for bond prices to go lower as we await the latest news from the Fed. (Bonds go up, interest rates go down.) As I've said before in previous issues, I take Jay Powell at his word: until inflation gets to 2% Fed rates will not go down. If he says so this next week it could easily cause the market to go down."
The bond market went sideways on the Flat DMA all week.
We are in a Buy signal from 120^14 on 03/28/24. Price is currently at 120^13 for just about break-even.
TThe DMA is Flat with Purple on top. We are in the top half of the Regression Channel.
This Buy signal is right at the Flat DMA with the DMA_H below the zero-line slightly. That's dangerous. Price has bounced off the LOB but price had already wicked up to the DMA where Purple is on top. Now it looks like we could use a bit of news to fall or rally. We are in a precarious position where Slope is negative, the DMA_H is under the zero-line but getting shorter. The DMA is Purple on top. All of this points to lower prices. BUT, I'm skeptical. To me it looks like we will at least poke around down at the 117^12 level where a strong Attractor lies.
Stocks
AAPL was down by -0.80 this week and now is sitting at 171.48.
"We have conflicting signals: Purple is on top in the DMA, Slope is below the zero-line and no longer Flat."
But, Monday set up a Buy signal which was confirmed on Tuesday. Price is making its way up to the DMA.
SunnyBands rules now have me in a Sell signal from 03/21/24 at 174.81. Price is now at 171.18 for a couple of points of potential profit.
AAPL is a great stock for trading, as is TSLA. Lots of cyclical moves up and down. It's great for swing trading with the swings being about 8 - 12 days long. It's not so good at trending.
We have conflicting signals: Purple is on top in the DMA, Slope is below the zero-line and no longer Flat. Price is at the LIB. All this adds up to more downward movement, probably to the LOB at 167. That would be another 5 points down. But I say conflicting because on the Weekly we have a Buy setup that could easily take us up to 183.
AAPL, on the Weekly chart, is well below the DMA, which is now Sloping downward at -28 degrees. There is an Attractor below at 164.37 which is where we will likely go next, or at least wick down there to touch the LOB at 168.54. It looks like we could easily get there.
AMZN was up by 1.51 this week and now is sitting at 180.38.
"We are currently at 174.42 and still in a Buy signal. We have had several Sell setups but with Gold on top and rising, it's a no-go."
Are we moving sideways or up? It's difficult to tell. Arithmetically it's up, but it is doing it inch by inch staying above the Gold DMA.
The current SunnyBands signal is Long from 03/08/24 at 135.41. Right now we are at 179.82 so that means about 44 points of potential profit. The market is currently slowly rising and is above the Attractor that's at 167.79.
We have been in this Buy signal for a long time, raking in the potential profits. Price continues to climb toward the Attractor overhead at 188.35, which was the ATH of 188.65. Expect that when it gets there we will experience profit-taking.
The DMA_H is now Gold and getting longer (positive). Slope is below the zero-line but rising (positive). It wouldn't take much to have this thing move down to the DMA which is currently at 165. Be on your toes! It could just as easily power right up to the UOB at 183.84. At this point that looks like the more likely scenario.
GOOGL was up by 0.16 this week and now is sitting at 150.93.
"The ATH on GOOGL is 153.78 from 01/29/24, 38 bars ago. We are almost at that level again with price currently at 150.66 leaving only 3+ points to break it."
The close on Friday before this was at 150.66, just millimeters above the low aforementioned.
We are in a SunnyBands Sell signal from 03/21/24 at 174.15. Today's price is 150.93. That gives us about 23 points of potential profit.
The ATH on GOOGL is 153.78 from 01/29/24, 42 bars ago. We are almost at that level again with price currently at 150.93 leaving only 3+ points to break it.
Gold is on top and Slope is at +30 degrees. We have Gold bars on the DMA_H, all of which are positive signs. Price is right at the UOB after a 6 point Gap on Monday last week.
If I had to guess here, I would say that GOOGL is going to best the ATH and move on up to 170. I say that by looking at the Fibonacci extensions on the down move from 2022. The first extension is at the 123.6% level and is right at 170.
Full disclosure: I have a large holding in GOOGL.
HUM was down by -1.82 this week and now is sitting at 346.72.
"HUM has been drifting on down, though it has hit the Attractor at 341.95 and ever-so-slightly bounced. We are in a tentative Buy signal as price moved above the DMA.
The attempts at rising are basically very weak. Yes, it has risen since the signal but not much.
We are currently in a Buy signal with HUM. It is making very small moves, but nevertheless upward. The DMA is Flat, but rising and moved above the zero-line this week (turned Gold). The Who's On Top dots are Gold, which confirms my contention that this is the beginning of an up move.
The Buy signal was on 03/11/24 at 347.00 and now price is at 346.72. That gives us less than a point of potential loss.
Humana is apparently fearful of stepping up and showing its hand. Price has been sharply sideways since the Buy setup on 03/11/24 at 347.0.
I am expecting a bounce from here, but am very cautious. Price on HUM could easily break below the Attractor at 342 and fall on downward, but I'm hoping for this to be a test of support and a rise from there.
META
META was down by -24.00 this week and now is sitting at 485.58.
"META has spent the last two weeks in congestion. It has gone neither up nor down, in a very tight configuration. We have a big gap from 02/01/24 that hasn't been filled. That's a bit scary. The Sell signal was confirmed on 03/11/24 at 483.59. It's a valid sell signal, but only down to the DMA at this point. And it's there already. So, in my book, there's no trade until price closes below the DMA at 484.78."
Until and unless price closes below the Flat DMA, this trade setup is not confirmed.
We are Long from 10/30/23 in a "long-term" signal. The SunnyBands Long signal was at 302.66 and with price currently at 485.58 that's a potential 182 points of profit. Imagine that on 100 shares!
This is the configuration in which I begin to look for an exit from the Long trade. If the next candle is Red and closes beneath the DMA then I'll reverse to a Short stance. But I'm expecting this consolidation above the DMA is a sign of strength and we will once again rise to new highs.
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On the Weekly chart it looks like META has more room on the upside. We are sitting on top of a strong Attractor at 487.50 and are below the UOB and UIB. If this Attractor doesn't hold, then the chart looks like it's turning over somewhat. All it woulld take to see this one turn down is a close beneath the DMA.
The ATH was at 523.57 just 14 days ago. If we reach for that then at the same time we are reaching for the UOB. I think we will make it despite warning signs to the contrary. Nevertheless, I'm looking at the 23.6% Fib retracement below the current market at 427.
Slope is positive at 57 degrees but Red and declining toward the zero-line. The DMA_H is showing Red below the zero-line and is getting shorter, which is negative. Price is still above the 55- and 200-day MAVs on the Daily chart, but less than the 21-day MAV. That's not a good sign.
MSFT
MSFT was down by -8.02 this week and now is sitting at 420.72.
"MSFT moved up nicely this week, generating a new ATH. And then, as is typical, there was profit-taking and MSFT moved back down. I don't think it is over; I still think as AI excitement continues MSFT will continue to profit."
And this week we have had movement to the upside and a new ATH last Thursday at 430.82. It would appear that it is indeed, not over.
Right now we have a potential profit of about 45points per share.
We are in a Long signal from 01/09/24 at 375.79. With current price at 420.72 that's about 45 points of potential profit.
MSFT moved up nicely last week, generating a new ATH. And then, as is typical, there was profit-taking and MSFT moved back down. In a show of strength price didn't even get down to the DMA (Gold on top) -- it didn't even wick down there. From the opening of the gates until the end of the week, MSFT moved down, losing over 8 points this week.
I think we are in for more. The next Attractor above is at a Fib line that lies at 440.81. That's 20 more points to the upside if it happens.
NVDA was down by -39.33 this week and now is sitting at 903.56.
"The SunnyBands are again on the move, with a new SunnyBands Buy signal from 02/22/24 at 785.38. Price is still between the UOB and UIB which is still strong, but I'm worried about the big Red candle on Friday."
And on Friday we had the beginning of a Sell signal (the setup). The candle was decisively down, and broke the UOB AND UIB in one swell foop (according to Lucy Ricardo). We'll see what the next candle does. Remember that counter-trend trades are only taken to the Flat DMA.
We are still Long. After a short venture below the DMA we were reversed to a Long signal on 02/22/24 at 785.38. Price is currently at 940.20 for a potential profit of 155 points per share!
The SunnyBands are again on the move, with a new SunnyBands Buy signal from 02/22/24 at 785.38. Price is still between the UOB and UIB which is still strong. Last week it took a tumble that was of concern, but managed to pull out a smooth landing before hitting the DMA. Gold has been on top since 11/08/23. That's a long run. And a lot of profit.
Now, with some amazement at my own equations, Slope is now below the zero-line and Red at -15 degrees and Red. Purple is on top in the DMA and we are slowly moving down toward the DMA.
SBUX was up by 0.68 this week and now is sitting at 91.39.
"SBUX isn't feeling so good. It keeps churning around the Flat DMA. Now it's below the line but looking like there is more negativity in the outlook. I'm thinking that the LIB or the LOB at 90.22 is the next target."
Right on! SBUX followed the plan and went down to 90.06. Can't get much closer than that!
We are still in a Sell signal from way back in November 2023. This sell is still productive. The Sell price was 104.30 on 11/20/23. Price is now at 90.76 for a ~13.5 point potential profit.
Interestingly, while Purple is on top and Slope is Flat the DMA_H is trying to move up to the zero-line.
That's one positive light in the tunnel but it's too soon to say that SBUX is going up. If it closes above the DMA I'm going to load up.
TSLA was up by 4.96 this week and now is sitting at 175.79.
"On the Monthly chart price is consistently below the DMA for months. This speaks to trading TSLA back and forth, but certainly not as an investment at this point."
That was darn close. We got to 178.18, which by that time was indeed the DMA (which had moved down a bit during the week).
With SunnyBands, we were in a Sell signal last we spoke. Price action treated us to a move down from the Sell signal. We are still in a Sell signal with price trending on down in fits and starts.
TSLA is still very weak with the moves ticking lower.
The DMA still has Purple on top. Only briefly in the beginning of March did the Gold bars show up on the Histogram.
On the Monthly chart the picture is pretty clear. The formation isn't exact, but it is reminescent of a large Head & Shoulders pattern. And the Linear Regression Channel on the right side of the chart shows how easily price could move on down to the LOB.
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