Sunday August 14, 2022 VOLUME 6 ISSUE 26
Is Anybody Reading this Newsletter? I intentionally introduce errors and misspellings to see if anyone is paying attention. See how many you can find, and let me know.
If you Didn't Attend the "EasyLanguage Forum", but would like Access to the Videos and Slides, here's where to get them. Sam Tennis and I covered EasyLanguage from Beginners to Intermediate. And even some OOEL. It was intense and lots of fun. If you couldn't come and want the materials you may purchase them for a modest cost here: OrderForm.
Check out the new symbol: KDP. For a recent event with TimingResearch (David Kosmider) called Lightning Round #1 I highlighted a stock I think will do well in the future. Click on the link and you can view the analysis. The stock is KDP, Keuring Dr. Pepper. My though was that coffee is our national pastime, and certainly mine, and that it will continue to do well in the future. Since my prediction it has continued to move upward and I want you to share in the analysis. KDP. We just published Lightning Round #2. Check it out here. (Trading in a Recession).
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Samuel K. Tennis is world-renowned as "Mr. EasyLanguage" as he was the lead programmer, designer and programmer of EasyLanguage when he was working for Omega Research, which changed its name to TradeStation in 2001.
Sunny J. Harris has been a professional trader since 1981 (through all the Bear and Bull markets) and author of "TradeStation Made Easy!" She began using TradeStation & EasyLanguage (at the time "System Writer") since 1987 and has been a TradeStation Beta Tester ever since.
Sunny and Sam have been friends for more than 30 years and are partners in writing our upcoming "EasyLanguage Object-Oriented Programming Made Easy!"
I have added three new pages to MoneyMentor in the Reference Section: Diagramming Sentences & Parts of Speech, a map of Russia, and Taxes. Take a Look. And Glenn Neely of NEoWave.com has consented to allowing me to post his Market Forecast for the S&P. Take a look below.
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September 6, 2022 I will be giving a talk at TimingResearch. You'll hear and see how I look at the VIX and News Event Trading.
If you haven't yet had a chance, please take a look at my Podcast: "The Sunny Harris Show! with Sam Tennis". It's FREE. Listen while you Trade.
The most recent Episode is an enlightening visit with Harry Boxer, of The Tech Trader. Harry has been trading for more than 50 years and the podcast is not to miss . Before that was legend Peter Eliades and then Michael Filighera illustrious Elliottician. Past episodes include: Glenn Neely (Elliott Wave Expert: neowave.com), Perry Kaufman (prolific author and master trader: kaufmansignals.com), and technical Rock Star Tim Slater. Upcoming episodes include Harry Boxer, David Kosmider (timingresearch.com) and Wally Olopade of RightSide Trading, Joe Krutsinger and now Anka Metcalf. I listen to Podcasts while I trade! You don't have to just sit there and listen.
Don't miss these Podcasts! These have been delightful and enlightening interviews into the lives of legendary traders and their take on the markets.
This coming week we have several important reports coming out that will likely affect the markets. We have some important stocks reporting earnings: NIU, WEBR, LI, YOU, BITF, and more. In addition, Reports next week are Empire State Mfgr Index, Housing Mkt Index, Long-Term Purchases, Building Permits and more.
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VantagePoint ai Prediction for Tomorrow
VP clearly projects the anticipated direction and magniture of tomorrow’s market. You can use any symbol; I trade the EMini S&P. My read of this clearly the market is poised for further move sideways. The 3 MAVs are in conflict with the long-term above the zero-line, the short-term below the zero-line but turning up and the medium-term above the line but turning down. To me this speaks to more congestive sideways action coming tomorrow.
The VP projection for tomorrow is for yet another up day with a high of 33,888 and a low of 33,652 Friday's close was 33,761 with a low of 33,398 and a high of 33,767. The prediction for Monday calls for a higher high and a higher low. We have been eeking out continued up moves for about 3 weeks.
All three moving averages are now above the zero-line and all three are pointed upward with the Short and Medium Term equal. Could become a Golden Cross.
Glenn Neely's S&P Prediction
Take a look at how accurate Glenn's chart patterns have been with his NEoWave River Theory. See where he thinks it will go next. Click to the right of the image to visit his website.
http://www.neowave.com
Last Week I Said:
"We are currently above both the 21- and 50-day MAVs and the 200-day MAV lies at 33,967. The 200-day is a likely target." It is almost there. In fact, the 200-day MAV is at 33,905 and the Dow is at 33,761. No reason why we couldn't best this number Monday, and then it's off to the races as bigger money will likely come in above the 200-day MAV.
SunnyBands Implications
Dow Jones
The stats for the Dow are:
This tells us that the market was UP a resounding 957 points, to close at 33,761.
While the previous week was sideways, this past week was sharply up. In after hours trading the YM (Dow futures) is down 63 points.
Last week I said: "The current rally will need to break above 33,073 to continue. And it definitely has. As the market breaks above the 200-day MAV we will likely get bigger money interested in the market.
We are currently above both the 21- and 50-day MAVs and the 200-day MAV lies at 33,9905. The 200-day is the likely target.
Be on your toes with your long positions.
S&P 500
The stats for ES are:
The DMA_H is still showing Gold , indicating strong Bullishness. The ES was up 134.25 on the week, and in after hours trading today it is down 8.25 points. That's likely just the pause that refreshes.
The Gold DMA is still on top which puts upward pressure on price action. On Who's On Top you can quickly see that Gold is on top and from the DMA_H that the Buy signal was on 6/21/22 when the ES was at 3,929. Now we are at 4,272. That was 324 points to be had and at $50 a point would give $16,200 on a single contract in just over a month!
The ES is still above the 21-day MAV and above the 50-day yet slightly lower than the 200-day MAV. The 200-day MAV lies at 4,330. We are currently at 4,321. Exceeding that line will signal another Bull market.
Lots still depends on the state of the Recession and what the Fed does next to Interest Rates. The 75-basis point increase last month didn't seem to deter the market from going up, so who knows.
The ES is now down only 10.85%. It has been recovering well. It is well above the DMA MidLine and the UOB. The ES nicely broke above the Attractor I mentioned last week and keeps going. It's only now to break above the 200-day MAV.
Last time I said: "It seems to me that it could move higher, on any kind of news." And that's what it did."
The Dow is also right below its 200-day MAV. The last 3 days price was well above the UOB! That's significant.
There is a strong Attractor at 34,152, above current price.
The Dow could easily break above the 200-day MAV and then it's off to the races.
Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions
Fibonacci retracements show us that the Dow is now heading for 34,152 which is the 38.2% line on this chart. Above that the 50% line lies at 34,684.
I'm not guessing that it will go straight there in (as Lucy said) in one "swell foop". But I am guessing it will go for those retracements. The all time high was on January 4th at 36,937.
There is a trendline that forms from that high, through the 35,492 on 4/25/22 right down to where we are right now. It's also right at the 200-day line. Will this line impeed further up moves for a time? Be cautious just in case.
RadarScreen of Stocks
Here again, back by popular demand, is my RadarScreen of Stocks:
Notice that BKNG is still on top but that AMZN is no longer even in the list. Things change. AMZN hasn't been so choppy lately, it has been up and out of the range it was in.
Stock Scan for those Above all 3 MAVs
Notice that there are now thousands of stocks all above their 3 MAVs. This scan only gets half way through the As.
Stocks
KDP: Keuring Dr. Pepper
The stats for KDP are:
When I publicly recommended this stock in David Kosmider's TimingResearch "Lightning Round #1" price was down at 34.94. It is now sitting at 39.30, down but half a point from last week.
I, an avid coffee drinker, believed that this non-alcholic beverage vendor would continue to thrive. Keuring is a great coffeemaker and very popular. They even have one at my hairdresser's.
Price dipped intraday last week, but has been flirting with both the UOB and UIB this week. I'm still expecting long-term progress from this stock.
HUM is doing well again. It is currently barely below its all time high as you can see from the orange line that is almost horizontal.
HUM
The stats for HUM are:
Last Close = +496.88 : the close Friday was at +496.88. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+484.02) = +12.86 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +496.68 UIB = +489.69 MidLine = +478.00 MidAngle = 39.61 LIB = +466.30 LOB = +459.31 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 485.24 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 468.65 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 443.23 - Above Color of DMA_H = Gold
HUM is up this week almost 13 points. It is very near its all time high of a few weeks ago, but not yet past it. I expect to see that happen in the next week.
The DMA_H just turned Gold after weeks of being hesitantly red. I never take a trade signal until price action confirms, so I hold steady on HUM.
The UOB lies at 497 and the UIB is at 490 . Last time I said: "I'm guessing that price will touch the MidLine at 475 and bounce from there." And it did just that. This is another time to be a buyer as far as I'm concerned.
AMZN
The stats for AMZN are:
Last Close = +143.55 : the close Friday was at +143.55. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+140.80) = +2.75 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +143.04 UIB = +139.39 MidLine = +132.80 MidAngle = 43.76 LIB = +126.20 LOB = +122.55 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 129.81 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 119.72 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 145.19 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red
AMZN, is no longer the stock with the highest PHW. In fact, it ranks under HUM and TSLA and has in the recent past spent a lot of time going down. However, on 7/15/22 it gave a Buy signal on the DMA_H and is now up 41 points from that signal.
Price is almost to its 200-day moving average! When it breaks above that (145.19) it could mean a lot more on the upside.
Further, price is now above the UOB which often portends further price action upward. Note that it is still down 24% from its all time high.
TSLA
The stats for TSLA are:
Last Close = +900.09 : the close Friday was at +900.09. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+864.51) = +35.58 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +942.44 UIB = +908.41 MidLine = +850.38 MidAngle = 60.57 LIB = +792.34 LOB = +758.31 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 836.37 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 759.15 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 909.18 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red
Cathy Wood's 5-year projection for TSLA (chart below) is still at 4,600 at this juncture; she lowered her projection a few weeks ago. Several other pundits I keep track of are suggesting a much higher price also. And they have announced a 3:1 split to come August 24th along with a Dividend. That should be bullish. And now price has been moving nicely upward.
TSLA went sideways for 30 trading days before breaking out from the channel.
TSLA has gained just over 35 points since last week. I'll be watching closely for more action to buy again. But, I'm being careful.
Seems to me people should be flocking to TSLA with gas prices high still. Thankfully it has dropped to $5.10/gal in San Diego, California.
I still believe we will continue to turn to carbon-neutral technologies and electric vehicles. I have not yet purchased their vehicle because I'm waiting for better batteries. I would want to get to LA and back on one charge before it is viable technology in my mind. When the batteries are better I expect this stock to really take off.
Notice that I think TSLA is still a good buy for lots of fundamental reasons (not the least of which is lower prices and a huge run-up potential.) Nevertheless, TSLA has dropped more that 39% from its high.
ARKK
The stats for ARKK are:
Last Close = +52.01 : the close Friday was at +52.01. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+50.07) = +1.94 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +53.32 UIB = +50.95 MidLine = +47.05 MidAngle = 12.68 LIB = +43.15 LOB = +40.78 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 47.57 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 44.66 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 68.24 - Below Color of DMA_H = N/A
Several months ago I said I thought ARKK price would tick on down to the LOB and possibly beyond. It did just that. But, currently she is somewhat up. ARKK is now Above the 21- and 50-day MAVs and price action is turning upward.
While price is now above the 21- and 50-day MAVs it is still below the 200-day MAV which lies at 68.24. Price is currently at 52.01.
Gold is still showing on Who's On Top at the bottom of the chart which tells me that we can expect more positivity. And, the DMA MidLine is now turning up.
Although ARKK has been going; up, it is doing it very slowly. She is above the sideways channel she's been in for months and that's encouraging.
When you think about your own trading success, take a look at what one of the most notable traders (Cathy Wood) has done.
ARKK added FATE and MKFG to her holdings as of Friday's report. And she sold shares of CGEN and SGFY
I do think, still, that she over-trades. And bottom fishing is a risky business.
MSFT
Last Close = +291.91 : the close Friday was at +291.91. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+282.91) = +9.00 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +288.05 UIB = +283.41 MidLine = +275.55 MidAngle = 55.22 LIB = +267.69 LOB = +263.05 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 272.72 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 265.08 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 294.55 - Below Color of DMA_H = Gold
MSFT (closing at 291.91 Friday) is now above its 21- and above the 50-day MAVs and still below the 200-day MAV. It doesn't have much farther to go up to reach to 200-day which lies at 294.55. It could do it this week easily.
Price is above the UOB and the DMA has turned Gold. The last 3 days of the prior week were sideways but the week followed through to the upside, with the rest of the market.
The long-term trendline still shows that MSFT is down about 17% from its all-time high. This is one of the reasons we are still in a Bear market.
Don't you think you should purchase the SunnyBands and DMA_H for your own? Sure helps Profits! I will gladly give any reader of this newsletter 20% off until August 10, and then it's back to standard prices. No more discounts. Use the Discount Code SSS_Offer.
Looking at the weekly chart, MSFT is well above the Gold DMA and now on Who's On Top Gold is showing again. Last week I said it would likely turn Gold and now it has. Yet, the DMA_H gave a Buy signal on 6/24/22 at 267.70 and now we are almost 20 points above that.
Buy the DMA_H and SunnyBands for yourself. They are life savers. I totally rely on them for my own trading. You can have these indicators for yourself. They are a great trading tool! And now I have a new indicator that plots a series of colored dots letting you see at a glance Who's On Top, Purple or Gold. Here's what it looks like. It is the series of Purple and Gold dots at the bottom of the chart.
Please join my Podcast (The Sunny Harris Show! with Sam Tennis). It's a lot of fun getting to know the Gurus from a personal standpoint and hear their predictions for the coming market. I listen to podcasts while I trade.
Oil
The stats for CL are:
Crude Light (CL) on a Daily chart (closing at 92.09 Friday) is up 3 points this past week. Since the high in March it has continued to decline.
Price is right above the LIB, which is very Bearish. On the DMA_H Purple is solidly on top since the short signal on 6/10/22.
Fibonacci Lines suggest it might go on down to $80.
Putin will decide where price is going next. If, and it looks likely, Russia begins to support Kaliningrad to the West of Lithuania and North of Poland we will get into a war with Putin defending Lithuania and Poland, members of the EU.
BitCoin, Etherium, Gold, Bonds
BitCoin
The stats for BTC are:
Last Close = +22,960.00 : the close Friday was at +22,960.00. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+23,990.00) = -1,030.00 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +24,681.95 UIB = +23,662.84 MidLine = +21,957.60 MidAngle = 81.26 LIB = +20,252.37 LOB = +19,233.26 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 22213.57 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 23626.20 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 40156.38 - Below Color of DMA_H = Gold
BitCoin is down 46% since its all time high of 70,040 on 11/10/21.
I'm writing this on Sunday, and in after-hours trading it is up +425 points. Price last week took it above the 21- and 50-day MAVs which could be a positive sign. The 200-day is way above the top of the chart at roughly 40,000.
Price is above the DMA MidLine and the LIB lies below at 20,682. The UOB is at 24,757 which is where I think we are headed.
Ethereum
The stats for Ethereum are:
Last Close = +1,678.01 : the close Friday was at +1,678.01. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+1,733.50) = -55.49 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +1,776.94 UIB = +1,661.39 MidLine = +1,455.12 MidAngle = 82.90 LIB = +1,248.86 LOB = +1,133.31 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 1466.58 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 1414.20 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 2793.52 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red
I haven't held any BitCoin. Instead, I have had ETHUSD (Ethereum) since its low in May 2021. I'm still holding ETHUSD and intend to hold it for years just to see what happens. Currently it is below my buy-in point. Why not sell? Because I'm in this one for the long-term and expect it to take off at some point. If it doesn't, oh well. It was an interesting experiment.
The chart of ETHUSD has jumped 34 more points in after-hours trading and is now above the DMA MidLine, which now shows Gold on top. That's a positive sign for ETHUSD.
ETHUSD has been nicely up since its buy signal (DMA_H) on 6/20/22. It is still outstripping BTC.
Gold
The stats for Gold are:
Last Close = +1,791.20 : the close Friday was at +1,791.20. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+1,781.80) = +9.40 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +1,817.44 UIB = +1,796.72 MidLine = +1,762.79 MidAngle = 68.30 LIB = +1,728.85 LOB = +1,708.13 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 1753.18 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 1808.14 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 1867.63 - Below Color of DMA_H = Gold
Gold is currently down -2.8 in after hours trading and since last week was up over 9 points. And yet is below the slower two MAVs. Check out Glenn Neely's report on his website to get an idea where he thinks Gold is going. His predictions are very accurate. Spoiler alert, he thinks it is going way down.
The Midline is at 1,776 the LOB is at 1,725. The MidAngle is positive. Anything could happen with this one, but it looks to me like it could go farther up to me.
I still believe we will hit the 2,000 price again someday and go higher. World strife used to add to the attractiveness of gold. I still think that will be broken to the upside. NOTE: Glenn Neely (of NEoWave Forecasting, and our 4th Podcast) thinks Gold has a lot lower to go. It's a riveting Podcast!
And Russia and China have been accumulating and stockpiling gold. And both are rattling sabers. And we recently put sanctions on Russia's gold pile.
Sept 6, 2022 I will be giving a talk at TimingResearch . You'll hear and see how I use VIX and News in my trading.
Bonds
The stats for @US are:
Last Close = +141.22 : the close Friday was at +141.22. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+144.00) = -2.78 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +145.77 UIB = +143.89 MidLine = +140.71 MidAngle = 5.85 LIB = +137.53 LOB = +135.65 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 141.07 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 138.71 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 149.35 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red
Bonds are down on the week for a loss of -2.78 points.
In after hours trading bonds are down
In after hours trading bonds are down 1/32 of a point.
Bonds go down, yields go up. In fact, the 2-yr / 10-year Treasuries yield curve is now inverted again; that is the yield on the short-term treasuries is less than the yield on the longer-term. Looks like we are expecting even more inflation and higher interest rates, probably by 0.5 - 0.75 points this next time.
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