Sunday November 27, 2022 VOLUME 6 ISSUE 40
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"You can use SunnyBands for Options on QQQ. When it goes purple I go! It's a sure bet. Price crosses above LOB sometimes, wait for a couple bars within LOB. Catch it on Friday on options expiration sell puts and it's a sure thing! I did it on TSLA too." - Aaron R.
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Samuel K. Tennis is world-renowned as "Mr. EasyLanguage" as he was the lead programmer, designer and programmer of EasyLanguage when he was working for Omega Research, which changed its name to TradeStation in 2001.
Sunny J. Harris has been a professional trader since 1981 (through all the Bear and Bull markets) and author of "TradeStation Made Easy!" She began using TradeStation & EasyLanguage (at the time "System Writer") since 1987 and has been a TradeStation Beta Tester ever since.
Sunny and Sam have been friends for more than 30 years and are partners in writing our upcoming "The Definitive Guide to TradeStation's EasyLanguage & OOEL" It looks like, at this point, it will be about another month before it goes to press. If you want an autographed copy, click here.
Podcast: The Sunny Harris Show! with Sam Tennis
If you haven't yet had a chance, please take a look at my Podcast: "The Sunny Harris Show! with Sam Tennis". It's FREE. Listen while you Trade.
The most recent Episode is with master trader and educator Anka Metcalf and before that CMT Robert Colby, and a historical visit with Larry Williams who is the master of commodity and futures trading as well as the prolific author of 11 books. Get to know him personally! The podcast is not to miss. Before that were legends Wally Olopade, Price Headley, Jody Samuels, Harry Boxer and Peter Eliades and then Michael Filighera illustrious Elliottician. Past episodes include: Glenn Neely (Elliott Wave Expert: neowave.com), Perry Kaufman (prolific author and master trader: kaufmansignals.com), and technical Rock Star Tim Slater. Upcoming episodes include Norman Hallett, Robert Colby , Larry Pesavento, Linda Bradford Raschke, Ted Hearne and Carolyn Boroden. I listen to Podcasts while I trade! You don't have to just sit there and listen and do nothing else.
Don't miss these Podcasts! These have been delightful and enlightening interviews into the lives of legendary traders and their take on the markets.
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QUICKLINKS: VantagePoint | Last Week I said | Dow | ES | SunnyBands Implications | Trading Room | Automated Strategy | Multiple Timeframes | Stocks | Oil | BitCoin & Etherium | Gold | Bonds | Diatribe | DEFINITIONS| Quips & Quotes
VantagePoint ai Prediction for Tomorrow
VP clearly projects the anticipated direction and magniture of tomorrow’s market. You can use any symbol; I trade the EMini S&P.
My read of this chart tells me that All Three of the Moving Averages (MAVs) are above the zero-line but hardly going anywhere. It's bullish, but barely. With the moving averages flat like they are the market is moving up but slowly.
The prediction for Monday calls for a high of 34,515 and the low of 34,248. It is still a narrow range that still looks sideways.
Glenn Neely's S&P Prediction
Take a look at how accurate Glenn's chart patterns have been with his NEoWave River Theory and NEoWave technology. See where he thinks it will go next. Click on the link to visit his website.
Notice that he called for this down move followed by an up move over 6 weeks ago, which happened and now he thinks we will continue upward in a correction as much as half way up between recent highs and recent lows.
Here is the Weekly NEoWave projection of the S&P. He posts it on Monday afternoons, so it will be updated then.
http://www.neowave.com
SunnyBands Implications
Dow Jones
The stats for the Dow are:
The Dow is moving up and has broken above the down-sloping trendline eminating from the all-time high on 1/5/22 and extending to the highs on 4/22/22 and 8/17/22.
Since the January '22 all-time high at 36,952 we have had up-moves (Bear Rallys) 4 times. Each time the public thought "oh yay, the bear market has ended." And, of course, that brought in buyers who pumped it higher, only to get fooled by resuming down moves. Who knows this time; maybe the downdraft is over, and maybe not. Larry Williams told us in the Podcast that we would be moving up and have a Santa Claus rally, and we are.
The strong Attractor overhead at 34,237 was broken this past week and is likely bullish. Last time I said: "It seems likely we will be, at the least, attempting to touch that area if not break above it." And the Dow spent all week going upwards, breaking above the Attractor.
The Podcasts of Anka Metcalf and Robert Colby are now posted, Enjoy two great interviews. Linda Bradford Raschke coming Next!
In after-hours trading Dow futures (YM) are Down -101 points at 34,254. There is another strong Attractor at 34,341 with is currently holding down today's upward movement.
We are currently above all three MAVs on the Daily chart. Being above all three, and especially being above the 200-day MAV is a very positive sign. We also broke out of the Pennant formation that was limiting last week's progress.
The DMA_H has been showing Gold for the last 4 days and in after-hours trading has turned Red.
S&P 500
The stats for ES are:
The DMA_H has been Gold for the last 2 weeks with the exception of one Red day, and yet today's bar is again Red.
The ES is not faring as well as the Dow, failing to break above the down-sloping trendline evident on the Dow.
REPORTS THIS WEEK:
Quips & Quotes
Here are a few quotes from my users these past weeks:
"I made $5,772 on the first day of my free trial of SunnyBands. It told me exactly where the turns were, even with the high volatility today. You are one of the very few people that allows test drives. It's nothing short of amazing!" -Aaron R.
"I want you to know that you’re truly an amazing person and how grateful we are to have you as a mentor/teacher. We Love You." - TJ N.
"Nice Bands! This morning I did a couple of quick MES buys and sells. Then I bought into an upward moving ES [signaled by the DMA_H]. Followed it to the top [SunnyBand]. Closed. Sold short at the top [SunnyBand.] Followed it to the bottom [SunnyBand]. A $4,000 account (what I had moved to the Futures account) returned about $2,000. Doesn’t get any better than that!". - Don M.
DMA_Histogram in Various TimeFrames
Here we have several different time frames on the ES Continuous Contract. This is a view of the RadarScreen with the DMA_Histogram showing the Direction of the DMA and what color it is.
When the DMA_Histogram turns Gold it means that the Gold DMA is on top. When it turns Purple it means that the Purple DMA is on top.
While Purple is on top and the DMA_H is below the zero-line it turns Green to highlight change of trend and the possibility of a Bullish movement.
While Gold is on top and the DMA_H is above the zero-line it turns Red to highlight change of trend and the possibility of a Bearish movement.
Note, I always wait for Price Action to confirm the move.
This coonfiguration tells me that all these timeframes are positive except the Monthly, which is still negative. The others are either Bearish Turning Up or strongly Bullish.
RadarScreen of Stocks
Here again, back by popular demand, is my RadarScreen of Stocks:
I sorted on the PHW this time to see which symbols produce the most potential profit. Notice that the report is very mixed. We have lots of Gold, Red and Green, but not any Purple. So, it's showing that these stocks are largely bullish but the Red ones are showing that while still bulish, are turning down.
Stock Scan for those Above all 3 MAVs
Notice that, of the 3,600 stocks I scan, there are now 798 stocks above their 3 MAVs. Last week there were 713 stocks above all three. This is a bit of a retreat.
Stocks
KDP: Keuring Dr. Pepper
The stats for KDP are:
When I publicly recommended this stock in David Kosmider's TimingResearch "Lightning Round #1" price was down at 34.94. It is now back up to 38.25. Still profitable at just about $3.31 per share. I'm not giving up my coffee.
The daily chart, shown here, looks listless; but the weekly chart (not shown) looks "steady as she goes."
There are lots of Pennant formations on the chart speaking to belabored moves. Those signify lots of sideways action. I trade the Pennants by waiting for a breakout to one side or the other from the red horizontal lines on the top or bottom of the Pennant. Now we broke the most recent Pennant only to fall right back inside it.
All 3 MAVs (21-, 50- and 200-day) are grouped together right at current price. Talk about indecision! In fact they are all clustered at the DMA MidLIne with Purple on top.
I, an avid coffee drinker, (I'm having a cup while I write this) believed that this non-alcholic beverage vendor would continue to thrive. Keuring is a great coffeemaker and very popular. They even have one at my hairdresser's.
HUM
HUM is up (+11.05 points) this week after making a new all-time high only weeks ago with price currently at 540.95.
The stats for HUM are:
Last Close = +540.95 : the close Friday was at +540.95. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+529.90) = +11.05 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +562.43 UIB = +553.40 MidLine = +539.10 MidAngle = 1.43 LIB = +524.79 LOB = +515.76 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 542.16 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 518.17 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 471.57 - Above Color of DMA_H = Green All Time High = +571.30 Percent = -5.31%
HUM is up this week by +1.37 points. It is now seriously retracing from it's previous all-time high, which occurred just a matter of weeks ago (11/3/22).
Of course, it was down the week before, so "up" is relative. Nevertheless, HUM continues to perform well.
The DMA_H turned Red on 11/1/22 after being strongly Gold. Price confirmed the DMA_H short signal on 11/04/22 at 552.05. Price dropped to 538.30 and then the DMA_H gave a buy signal. Price is now at 540.95, yielding a few points of potential profit.
Price is currently right at the DMA MidLine, which signals indecision, with Purple on top. Further, the DMA MidAngle is Flat. That could turn price back downward this coming week. If it breaks the DMA MidLine it should do so decisively.
AMZN
The stats for AMZN are:
Last Close = +93.41 : the close Friday was at +93.41. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+94.14) = -0.73 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +104.69 UIB = +102.03 MidLine = +97.16 MidAngle = -9.65 LIB = +92.28 LOB = +89.62 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 95.56 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 107.78 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 126.66 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green All Time High = +188.65 Percent = -50.49%
AMZN is below all 3 MAVs.
Down, down, down. This chart looks "puny" as they say where I'm from. AMZN is down on the week by -0.73 points which isn't so bad in and of itself, but it's the continuation that is disturbing. AMZN is down over 50% from its all-time high.
AMZN is below all 3 MAVs and looks like it has farther down to go.
TSLA
The stats for TSLA are:
Last Close = +182.86 : the close Friday was at +182.86. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+180.19) = +2.67 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +212.65 UIB = +205.67 MidLine = +193.84 MidAngle = -25.99 LIB = +182.02 LOB = +175.04 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 197.09 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 226.48 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 266.97 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green All Time High = +414.50 Percent = -55.88%
Cathy Wood's 5-year projection for TSLA (chart below) is still at 4,600 which would translate to 1,500 post split; she lowered her projection a few months ago. Several other pundits I keep track of are suggesting a much higher price also. The split should have been bullish but remember that we may still be in a Bear market.
It's currently down nearly -56% from its all time high. On last week's chart TSLA formed a Double-Bottom which did not hold. Price dropped soundly on news that Elon Musk is micro-managing TWTR and he sold $4b worth of TSLA stock to cover expenses.
The SunnyBands Sell signal was on 9/21/22 at 300.80. That makes a potential short trade profit of $117.91 per share. Despite moving steadily down, the DMA_H is showing mostly Green, with Purple on Top. That is just saying that the moves downward are tentative, and in fact they are creating Pennant Formations as the move continues.
VantagePoint is calling for a Lower Day tomorrow with a high of 183.49 tomorrow and a low of 175.96.
This is still my favorite stock. But, at this point I'm a trader, not an investor yet. Not unless and until it passes and holds above the Flat DMA.
Seems to me people should be flocking to TSLA with gas prices high still. It is now down to $4.50/gal in my neighborhood.
I still believe we will continue to turn to carbon-neutral technologies and electric vehicles. I have not yet purchased their vehicle because I'm waiting for better batteries. I would want to get to LA and back on one charge before it is viable technology in my mind. When the batteries are better I expect this stock to really take off.
Notice that I think TSLA is still a good buy for lots of fundamental reasons (not the least of which is lower prices and a huge run-up potential.) Nevertheless, TSLA has dropped nearly 57% from its high and is now bouncing off its lows. Maybe.
ARKK
The stats for ARKK are:
Last Close = +36.00 : the close Friday was at +36.00. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+36.56) = -0.56 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +40.68 UIB = +39.40 MidLine = +37.24 MidAngle = -1.00 LIB = +35.08 LOB = +33.80 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 36.89 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 37.49 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 47.58 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green All Time High = +159.70 Percent = -77.46%
Months ago I said I thought ARKK price would tick on down to the LOB and possibly beyond. It did just that. But, currently she is below all 3 of the MAVs and is sitting right on the DMA MidLine.
Who's On Top at the bottom of the chart is still Purple, and it has been Purple/Light Purple for a long time.
When the DMA MidLine is Flat I watch closely for Price to tell me the next direction. Don't jump the Flat DMA.
When you think about your own trading successes (or lack thereof), take a look at what one of the most notable traders (Cathy Wood) has done. Don't feel bad. It happens to the best of us.
ARKK got rid of 370,568 shares of MTLS on Friday. in her holdings as of Friday's report.
I do think, still, that she over-trades. And bottom fishing is a risky business.
Tonight's chart is on a Monthly timeframe. It shows her performance better. You'll note that the is now broaching the previous lows and needs to best that to keep face. Otherwise she's losing eveything she gained over the last 2 years.
MSFT
Last Close = +247.49 : the close Friday was at +247.49. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+241.22) = +6.27 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +248.18 UIB = +244.39 MidLine = +238.07 MidAngle = 33.82 LIB = +231.76 LOB = +227.97 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 235.25 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 237.17 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 266.41 - Below Color of DMA_H = Gold All Time High = +349.67 Percent = -29.22%
MSFT (closing at 247.49 Friday, down 6.27 on the week) is above the two short-term MAVs and below the 200-day MAV. The DMA MidLine (at 238.07) is now moving upward, with Gold on top, which tells me price is above the UIB and almost touching the UOB which lies at 248.18.
Generally when it touches the UOB it continues to push it upward.
Price is now back above the DMA, and touching the UOB.
The DMA_H signalled a Buy on 11/04/22, if and only if it is confirmed by Price Action, which it was confirmed on 11/04/22 at 221.39. Now with price at 247.69 that's a potential profit of $26.30 per share.
Now it is above the 2 short-term MAVs and is trying to rise toward the 200-day MAV which lies at 266.41 or so. We can hope, but keep our eyes on the bouncing ball (SM_CurrentPrice). I always wait for price action to confirm. .
The long-term trendline now shows that MSFT is down about 29% from its all-time high. This is one of the reasons we are still in a Bear market.
The NASDAQ (where the tech stocks live) is also down -30% since January. Now that's a Bear Market to me. Reminds me of 2000-2002 when it was down -78%. We shall see...
Don't you think you should purchase the SunnyBands and DMA_H for your own? Sure helps Profits! Are you serious about making money trading? You're leaving money on the table if you aren't trading with SunnyBands.
Buy the DMA_H and SunnyBands for yourself. They are life savers. I totally rely on them for my own trading. And I want you to have the success you deserve! You can have these indicators for yourself. They are a great trading tool! And now I have a new indicator that plots a series of colored dots letting you see at a glance Who's On Top, Purple or Gold. Here's what it looks like. It is the series of Purple and Gold dots at the bottom of the chart.
Please join my Podcast (The Sunny Harris Show! with Sam Tennis). It's a lot of fun getting to know the Gurus from a personal standpoint and hear their predictions for the coming market. I listen to podcasts while I trade. The most recent Podcast is with Anka Metcalf of TradeOutLoud.
Oil
The stats for CL are:
Crude Light (CL) on a Daily chart (closing at +76.28 Friday) was solidly down on the week and now gas at my pump is down a bit to $4.40/gal.
And now Biden has opened Venezuela for Chevron to pump oil after their president allocated $30m to humanity efforts. I'm guessing this news will help CL go even lower, probably back down to the Attractor at 68.99.
The DMA Histogram signalled Bearish on 11/08/22 at 88.32. It is currently at 76.28 in the after-hours market, for a potential of +12.04 points per contract so far.
On the weekly chart we are in a tight congestion pattern moving on downward since 6/17/22. Price is well below the DMA MidLine and continuing on down since the high on 3/11/22.
CL is below the down-sloping DMA which shows Purple on top.
Putin will decide where price is going next. If, and it looks likely, Russia begins to support Kaliningrad to the West of Lithuania and North of Poland we will get into a war with Putin defending Lithuania and Poland, members of the EU. If that happens, crude will be needed to support the war and prices will respond.
BitCoin, Etherium, Gold, Bonds
BitCoin
The stats for BTC are:
Last Close = +16,300 : the close Friday was at +16,300. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+16,065) = +235 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +18,851 UIB = +18,285 MidLine = +17,369 MidAngle = -88.32 LIB = +16,453 LOB = +15,888 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 17420.48 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 18330.80 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 27168.53 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green All Time High = +69,510 Percent = -76.55%
BitCoin is down just about 77% since its all time high of 69,965 on 11/10/21. In after hours trading it is down -495 points this evening at 15,810. The news of FTX's collapse has everything to do with the public's confidence in Crypto currencies, at least for the moment.
Notice the horizontal line I've placed on this Monthly Chart. Coming from the lows of 2020 this line should hold or it looks like we are in for a further collapse of BitCoin.
Purple is still on top on the daily chart of the DMA with the Histogram showing Green for the last several days after showing Purple off and on for a few days.
It is struggling while deciding where to go next.
In our Podcast interview with Ted Hearne last Saturday, he pointed out that the stock market is going down and Bitcoin is going sideways. He believes that shows strength in BitCoin.
There are 4 interlocking Pennant formations on the Daily chart, showing extreme congestion. I've never seen that before. There's nowhere to go but to burst out in one direction or the other. Price is sitting on the LoB with Purple on top and both Outer bands curving inward. Something is about to happen soon.
Ethereum
The stats for Ethereum are:
Symbol "ETHUSD", Bar Type = Daily Last Close = +1,199.46 : the close Friday was at +1,199.46. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+1,208.16) = -8.70 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +1,458.68 UIB = +1,406.37 MidLine = +1,320.78 MidAngle = -75.52 LIB = +1,235.19 LOB = +1,182.88 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 1328.25 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 1336.91 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 1897.73 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green All Time High = +4,867.81 Percent = -75.36%
As you know, I haven't held any BitCoin. Instead, I have had ETHUSD (Ethereum) since its low in May 2021. I'm still holding ETHUSD and intend to hold it for years just to see what happens. Currently it is below my buy-in point. Why not sell? Because I'm in this one for the long-term and expect it to take off at some point. If it doesn't, oh well. It was an interesting experiment.
The chart of ETHUSD is now moving somewhat upward. It too is in a tight congestion pattern with 3 consecutive Pennant Formations, one within the other. Price can only continue to squeeze to zero for just so long before it bursts out--one direction or the other.
Like BTC ETHUSD is reacting to the news of FTX's collapse. What happens to bank stocks after a big heist? Same thing. But then they bounce back.
Gold
The stats for Gold are:
Last Close = +1,768.8 : the close Friday was at +1,768.8. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+1,769.2) = -0.4 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +1,793.1 UIB = +1,777.3 MidLine = +1,749.1 MidAngle = 53.62 LIB = +1,720.9 LOB = +1,705.1 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 1734.19 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 1706.62 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 1832.30 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red All Time High = +2,122.7 Percent = -16.67%
Gold. Gold is up since 10/21/22 but is actually down -0.4 points since last week's SSS. Nevertheless, it has been recovering nicely.
The DMA is still Gold on Top. The Buy signal came on 11/04/22 at 1676.60 and price is now 1763.6, for a potential long trade profit of almost $87 per contract. It pays to trade with SunnyBands and the DMA_H.
Price is below the UIB and the UOB. The UOB lies at 1,793.10 and that's where I think Gold is going. But first it needs to cool off and touch the Flat DMA MidLine at 1,749.1.
Gold is above the two short-term MAVs but still below the 200-day MAV. NOTE: Glenn Neely (of NEoWave Forecasting, and our 4th Podcast) thinks Gold has an up-move coming for the near future. It's a riveting Podcast!
Bonds
The stats for @US are:
Last Close = +127.46875 : the close Friday was at +127.46875. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+125.31250) = +2.15625 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +127.94556 UIB = +126.72333 MidLine = +124.37500 MidAngle = 21.18 LIB = +122.02667 LOB = +120.80444 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 123.24 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 124.28 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 136.95 - Below Color of DMA_H = Gold All Time High = +169.09375 Percent = -24.62%
Bonds are up on the week by +2.16 points.
In after hours trading bonds are up 21/32 of a point.
On the monthly chart bonds are in a clear downward progression since 4/30/20. And headed lower. Bonds go lower, interest rates go higher.
In fact, price is right at the 200-period MAV and bouncing slightly upward this past month. That could support further relief from ever-increasing interest rates.
Bonds go down, yields go up. Bonds go up, yields go down. In fact, the 2-yr / 10-year Treasuries yield curve is now inverted again; that is the yield on the short-term treasuries is less than the yield on the longer-term. Looks like we are expecting even more inflation and higher interest rates, probably by another 0.50-0.75 points this next time.
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