Sunday June 02, 2024 VOLUME 8 ISSUE 22
AAPL | AMZN | BTC | DOW | CL | ES | GC | GOOGL | META | MSFT | NVDA | TSLA | US
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Sunny Side of the Street (SSS)
The charts below are now organized first alphabetically by commodities and then alphabetically by stock symbol. It should be easier to read and find the symbol you want to take a look at.
VantagePoint Prediction
This prediction is for Monday to go higher than Friday's close and to stay above Friday's low. What it doesn't tell us is the Close. Will we go higher and then close lower? Or will be start low and go up higher?
The predicted high is 38,862 while the predicted low is 38,428. That gives us a range of over 400 points for Monday . I mark the High and Low on my chart and watch the day's progress with respect to the VP predictions. I'll even show you in TAWS; just remind me.
The moving averages are below the zero-line and turning upward. The short-term has crossed over the other two in a bullish sign.
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The VP moving averages are all below the zero-line and falling. The short-term has turned flat but they are all getting very low.
Take a look at the Monthly chart below for more long-term insight.
Glenn Neely's Market Prediction
Glenn Neely has graciously granted us continued access to his weekly predictions! Take a look at how accurate Glenn's chart patterns have been with his NEoWave River Theory and NEoWave technology. See where he thinks it will go next.
To see his long-term forecast to 2060, Click Here. Tell Glenn I sent you.
In today's chart (which will be automatically when he releases the chart on Monday afternoon) is a Weekly view so you can see longer term predictions. Click on the link to http://www.NEoWave.com visit his website.
Overview (DOW & ES)
DOW ($INDU)
Chart
Statistics
$INDU was down by -383.27 this week and now is sitting at +38,686.32.
Last Time I Said
"I believe we will drop farther, down to the LIB at 38884.23 to finish the 3-wave and enter a 4-wave correction."
And drop it did in stair-step dramatic moves on down to the LOB.
That's exactly what we have done this week. We dropped -383.27 points this week, bolstered by a 575 up move on Friday. Pretty exciting!
Current SunnyBands Signals
We got a Sell signal on 05/22/24 at 39,671. Right now we are at 38,686.32 and have 984 points of potential profit.
Depending on how Monday morning looks, I'm going to close out the Short.
Analysis
This week we dropped 835 points only to recover part of the decline on Friday to end the week "just" -383.27 down. We are still down 3% from the ATH.
For Reports, this week we have CPI, FED Minutes, Jobless Claims, PPI and Consumer Sentiment Here's the LINK to my source of data. AND it's Earnings Season still. The next big Fed Speak is June 11-12. Again, it's all fear and greed, so it could go either way. Here's a link to this week's critical reports. Apple's unveiling of its new technology is on June 10 - 14. Watch your AAPL carefully.
Now it's 4 bars since the AAH We are currently below 40,000, and I think we are going to dip into the 38s.
The next Fib level on the Monthly chart lies overhead at 41,340 and I do think we will get there.
Monthly DOW
The Blue line on the Monthly is now above the UOB and just below the Orange Trendline I drew on the chart long ago. It looks like there is more room on the upside longer term. Exciting!
ES (S&P 500)
@ES was down by -26.00 this week and now is sitting at +5,299.25.
We sliced slickly through the Natural Number at 5,200 and now we are again testing the 5,300 level. If I had to guess.
And this week the ES corrected down to the Flat DMA, where it bounced on Friday.
We are in a SunnyBands Buy signal from 5047.50 on 04/22/24. Currently at 5,299.25 gives us a potential profit of +251 points per contract. At $50 per point this is $12,586 otential profit per contract in less than a month.
Price moved sideways this week and then closed the week on a weak note. Currently we are up a bit at xxx 5,332.75 in the after-hours market.
It looks to me like we will try to push above Friday's high. We sliced slickly through the Natural Number at 5,200 and now we are again testing the 5,300 level. If I had to guess, I'd say that our next stop is still at 5,400. Right now it's busy playing with the 5300 level.
Commodities
BitCoin (BTC)
@BTC was down by -1640 this week and now is sitting at +68,035.
"The DMA_H is getting close to the zero-line where it could drop through for lower prices."
And this week price moved sideways, unlike the Dow. The whole week was spent sitting on the DMA.
We are now in a Buy signal, from 62,590 on 05/03/24. With price now at 68,030 that's about 5,440 points of potential profit.
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On the Monthly chart there is a Fib retracement line at the 76.4% level which is at 75,170.
To garner a bit more insight, I'm looking at the Weekly chart, and now I see that the last week's close was right at the UIB and the Orange trendline I have drawn. Gold is on top and that is still the situation today, with Gold on top, but the DMA_H is getting very close to the zero-line where it could drop through for lower prices. But I don't think that's what's happening. It looks like an impending bounce off the DMA.
Back to the Daily chart. Price is above all 3 MAVs, showing some strength and a propensity to test the shorter MAV. It might test the UIB next.
We are now above the Flat DMA on the Daily with the DMA_H sloping up and Green. Those are positive signs for more upward movement.
@CL was down by -0.73 this week and now is sitting at +76.99.
"On the SunnyBands, it's in a flat channel with price in the lower half. Purple is on top and sloping down. I would not be surprised to see some more congestion at this 78 level followed by a slow move upward.
Take a look at the Gray Vertical Line signifying an exit from the trade. It's gray because it's not Red meaning it would be a short signal. It's just an exit.
But, on Thursday we got a Sell signal when price closed below the DMA. We are Short from 77.91 on 05/30/24. Price is currently at 77.18 for a little bit of profit.
The price of gasoline in my neighborhood is now flat again at $5.39./gal. (Last week it was $5.39) I saw one pump with price in $/litre. That'll make us think it's cheaper. Make the package smaller. Mark (in my TAWS meeting) told me that 1 gallon is 3.7854 Litres. Good to know!
The DMA is pointing slightly down with a slope of -5.43. That just barely qualifies at "not Flat". Incidently, it is below the zero-line and has turned Green signalling it is rising into the Flat zone.
On the SunnyBands, it's in a flat channel with price in the lower half. Purple is on top and Flat.
I would not be surprised to see some more congestion at this 78 level followed by a slow move upward.
On the Weekly chart I see that we have been right at the Flat DMA for the last 4 weeks. The Daily chart is the one that will generate the signal.
Gold (GC)
@GC was down by -11.5 this week and now is sitting at +2,345.8.
"Gold moved decisively down this week and then finished the week sideways. Price touched the LIB, where it is currently. In the recent past price has been moving down to the LIB and then bouncing back up. Maybe that will happen again with this one."
We were in a SunnyBands Sell signal from 05/22/24 at 2415.7. Price is currently at 2347.7 which gives us 68 points per contract.
I'm still looking for Gold at 2,500. With an ATH at 2,448 we don't have far to go.
Gold moved decisively down this week and then finished the week sideways. Price touched the LIB, where it is currently. In the recent past price has been moving down to the LIB and then bouncing back up. Maybe that will happen again with this one.
On the Monthly chart it is much clearer. Price is at the UOB. But, this and last week were "wicky." Price explored much higher and then retraced, leaving a wick that touched above 2,400. .
The UOB is at 2,389.4 and price is above it.
US T-BONDS 30 yr
@US was down by -0^27 this week and now is sitting at +116.06250.
"And price not only crossed the LR to the upside, it continued on to reach half the remaining distance. And there it failed." And that failure promoted more failure as price declined steadily until Wednesday when it dropped below the DMA to the LOB. But then, on Thursday it bounced up to the DMA.
We were in a Sell signal from 05/17/24 at 117^10 and price at the closing of the signal was 115^17 117^02 giving us a potential of 1^28 points per contract. We are now in Cash until price closes above the DMA.
Price this week meandered around right after the Sell signal and then on Tuesday and Wednesday took a hit. Now we are in cash but the Short saw 1^28 points of potential profit.
When US goes down, the expectation is for Interest Rates to go up. This week price gave a mixed message with the first part of the week tumbling below the DMA and then on Thursday it picked up and bounced off the LOB, clearing the LIB and closing at the DMA. I don't believe it. I'm still thinking the Fed will do what it has been saying it will do for 2 years. They haven't varied. Now they've even stated that they could be pursuaded to raise rates if the conditions occur.
At Friday's close price was below all 3 MAVs and sitting right on the Linear Regression Line (LR) in the middle of the channel. It was above the LR in the beginning of the week, but it was heading down and it broke through it to the downside. However, it's not far from the LR and in fact Friday's close is above it.
Overall picture? Looks like price has two options: 1. break through the DMA to the upside, or 2. be rebuked at the DMA and drop back to the LOB. Stay on your toes.
Stocks
AAPL was up by 2.27 this week and now is sitting at +192.25.
"AAPL broke the downsloping trendline with a sizeable gap. It hesitated the next couple of days but now has continued it progression upward." I think price is climbing in anticipation of AAPL announcements during their World Wide Developers Conference June 10 - 14.
SunnyBands rules now have me in a Buy signal from 04/24/24 at 169.02. Price is now at 192.48 for about +23 points of potential profit.
AAPL continues to climb and stumble and climb some more. Gold is clearly on top with Slope at 17 degrees.
There is a solid Attractor above at 196.21. To me it looks like that's the next goal.
AMZN was down by -4.31 this week and now is sitting at +176.44.
"The DMA_H is now above the zero-line but heading down to it. If it drops below the zero-line we are in a correction."
And drop it did, right to the LOB. Price action moved down this week below the DMA and on down to the LOB.
The current SunnyBands signal is Short from 05/10/24 at 187.48. Right now we are at 176.27 so that means about 12 points of potential profit. The market is capitulating at the moment and has dropped to the DMA.
We are in a Short SunnyBands signal from 187.48 on 05/10/24. With current price at 176.27 that's about 11 points of potential profit.
Price is below the 21- and 55-day MAVs and only above the 200-. We have a strong Attractor below at 167.67 that could pull price back down to it. There is an intermediary Attractor right where price is, at 175.35. That has a possibiility of containing further downside movement. But I don't think so. I'm guessing it will drop to the lower Attractor.
Slope is negative -15 degress and Red, which means it's gaining downward momentum. The DMA_H just turned Purple on Friday.
GOOGL was down by -2.49 this week and now is sitting at +172.50.
"Because the DMA is now fallling with Gold on top and the DMA_H is above the zero-line and Red, it looks like we might have a little correction." And we did, a drop to the DMA.
We are in a SunnyBands Cash signal from 05/23/24 at 173.55. The Signal changed to Cash and we closed the trade on 05/23/24 at 173.55 for potential profit of 38 per share.
We are now Neutral (in a Cash signal) since we got the bear crossover of the UOB and it was confirmed by price action. BUt, a big but, Gold is on top and Slope is positive. So I went to Cash, not Short.
Now we are still in Cash waiting to see whether price closes below the DMA. Friday it touched and bounced on the DMA (which is now Flat). I wouldn't be surprised if GOOGL bounced on up from the DMA. But I also wouldn't be surprised if it breaks below it. This is a precarious positioning. The next Earnings Report for Alphabet is July 23, 2024.
Let's take a look at the Monthly. (Bring it up on your computer.) On this one price is above all 3 MAVs and Slope is positive at +73 degrees. To get an idea where up is from a high we need to pull Fib Extensions. Doing that tells me that the next level, at 23.6%) is at 196.77. Currently price is at 172.38. That's a bit of a jump for GOOGL, if it happens. Of course, the recent ATH could lead to profit taking at this level. Beware!
Full disclosure: I have a large holding in GOOGL.
META
META was down by -11.39 this week and now is sitting at +466.83.
"I am now waiting for more information. What will price do next? Since it's right at the DMA it's questionable." Price is below the 21- and 55-day MAVs and above the 200. Slope is definitely Flat.
We are now Flat and waiting for more information.
I elected to take the profit and close the long trade and take the profit last week. It amounted to almost 34 points potential profit.
I am now waiting for more information. What will price do next? Since it's right at the DMA it's questionable. Price is below the 21- & 55-day MAVs and above the 200-.
And, the DMA is Flat. Price is flat too. Interestingly, the monthly chart looks like the next direction could to either way.
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META went virtually nowhere this week. Looking at the monthly chart tells me that there might be more room on the upside, but I don't trust it. I'm Flat for a reason.
NVDA was up by 31.64 this week and now is sitting at +1,096.33.
Last time I didn't analyze NVDA, so it's like we are starting from scratch.
We entered a SunnyBands Buy signal on 04/26/24 at 877.35. Price is now at 1,096.33 for about 219 points of potential profit.
I've been holding NVDA all this time and am now wary of its current configuration. I took profits on Friday on the 2nd Red bar down. If it goes higher (above the UOB) I'll buy back in.
Price is moving upward, but has slightly eased off. Thursday's and Friday's action would be a Sell signal but for the "Gold on top" and Slope positive. So, in that case I closed the signal but didn't go short..
TSLA was down by -1.16 this week and now is sitting at +178.08.
"TSLA is still weak with the moves ticking sideways."
This week price just meaandered around doing nothing so ... nothing to report.
With SunnyBands, we were Short until the pop above the UOB. I exited the position but did not go short yet. We need more information and are currently in Cash.
TSLA is still weak with the moves ticking sideways. But this latest move on a gap up was encouraging. The only problem is we didn't get the follow-through. Instead, price dropped right back down to the DMA. Which, BTW is Gold on top.
The DMA is Flat with Gold on top and price is sitting right on it. The SunnyBands are getting closer together and that often means an impending move.
On the Weekly the news is less promising. The Linear Regression Line is right at current price. but price is not yet above the DMA, which is Flat and Purple.
Purple is now on top and the DMA is Flat and price has touched it 5 times this month. It's trying to make a move, but not yet.
I'm on the sidelines until TSLA closes above the DMA. Otherwise, it's still moving sideways.
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