Sunday May 05, 2024 VOLUME 8 ISSUE 18
AAPL | AMZN | BTC | DOW | CL | ES | GC | GOOGL | META | MSFT | NVDA | TSLA | US
Introduction
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Sunny Side of the Street (SSS)
The charts below are now organized first alphabetically by commodities and then alphabetically by stock symbol. It should be easier to read and find the symbol you want to take a look at.
VantagePoint Prediction
This prediction is for Monday to go higher than Friday's close and to stay above Friday's low. What it doesn't tell us is the Close. Will we go higher and then close lower? Or will be start low and go up higher? The predicted high is 38,952 while the predicted low is 38,593. I mark the High and Low on my chart and watch the day's progress with respect to the VP predictions.
Tune in to Trade Along With Sunny on Wednesday mornings at 9amPT each week to see how I use it and my proprietary indicators to trade live.
The VP moving averages are all above the zero-line and heading upward. The Fast MAV has crossed above the other two in a bullish move.
Take a look at the Monthly chart below for more long-term insight.
Glenn Neely's Market Prediction
Glenn Neely has graciously granted us continued access to his weekly predictions! Take a look at how accurate Glenn's chart patterns have been with his NEoWave River Theory and NEoWave technology. See where he thinks it will go next.
To see his long-term forecast to 2060, Click Here. Tell Glenn I sent you.
In today's chart (which will be automatically when he releases the chart on Monday afternoon) is a Weekly view so you can see longer term predictions. Click on the link to http://www.NEoWave.com visit his website.
Overview (DOW & ES)
DOW ($INDU)
Chart
Statistics
$INDU was up by 436.02 this week and now is sitting at 38675.68.
Last Time I Said
"The week was up by +253.26 points with a bit of a turn-around continuing. Actually, we are in a congestion area with the last 6 bars between the LOB and LIB and stagnant. Right at the DMA for 4/5 of the week. If you'll take a look at Larry Williams' 2024 prediction you'll see this downturn was projected with recovery happening at the end of the month."
It would appear that the turn is coming.
Current SunnyBands Signals
Last time I also said: "I'm now waiting for a Long or Short move...waiting for information." And on Friday we got it! Price jumped from its position under the Flat DMA, on a gap, to its current position above the Flat DMA. That's impressive. Friday's Buy signal was at 38,675. We shall see what this week brings.
Analysis
The week was up by +436.02 points with 450 of those points on Friday. So, we were down a bit and now we are up a bit.
For Reports, this week we have HPI, Emplymt Cost Index, PMI, Consumer Confidence, Fed Funds Rate and more. AND it's Earnings Season still, with TSLA Reporting on Tuesday.. The next Fed Speak is Tuesday & Wednesday April 30-May 1. Again, it's all fear and greed, so it could go either way.
Just 30 bars ago we registered an All-Time Closing High (ATH) near 40,000 and dropped off sharply from there. That was expected and now I'm ready to see it climb back up. Right now we are being rejected by the Purple on top, Flat DMA. It's going to take some force to break the DMA and in fact that's exactly what it did on Friday: pierced right through it.
Monthly DOW
Beware! Price action (the Blue line) has crossed under the Orange projection and has broken below the UOB. That doesn't bode well for hopes of moving upward. Each time the Blue line has broken the Upper Inner (UIB) SunnyBands in the past, it has followed through with a significant correction. And now the Blue line is heading back upward and is touching the UOB. This looks like a recovery is building in this configuration.
ES (S&P 500)
@ES was up by 23.25 this week and now is sitting at 5154.75.
"We are currently in a SunnyBands Buy signal from 5047.5 on 04/22/24. Price has moved right to, but not yet above, the Flat DMA with Purple on top." Subsequently it dropped down to the LIB and then bounced, to its current position above the Flat DMA.
We are in a SunnyBands Sell signal from 82.63 on 04/29/24. Currently at 77.99 gives us a potential profit of 4.64 points per contract.
We are currently in a SunnyBands Buy signal from 5047.5 on 04/22/24. Price has moved right to, and then jumped above the Flat DMA. We are also right at the 55-day MAV and above the 21-day. The DMA and the SunnyBands themselves are Flat, forming a channel that could be the next level up. Slope is now positive, but still less than 5 degrees so I call it Flat. The lines on the Histogram are Green and getting shorter, but it's not happening fast. They have a way to go before crossing the zero-line.
It looks to me like we will try to push above Friday's high. It if does that then it should next try to hit the UIB which is right now at 5,226.24. The next Natural Number is 5,200, so I expect we will see that level at least tested.
Commodities
BitCoin (BTC)
@BTC was down by -1710 this week and now is sitting at 62590.
"The DMA is visually Flat with price right underneath it. Purple is on top but tentatively. On the DMA_H bars are Purple and getting longer. Slope is negative and Red. All taken together this picture suggests we have more room on the downside."
And this week was down to the LOB Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Then on Thursday it peaked up and on Friday made a climb toward the Flat DMA.
We are now in a Sell signal, from 67,780 on 04/12/24. With price now at 62,590 that's about 5,100 points of potential profit.
Because of the last two bars forming a nice SunnyBands Buy signal (but with Purple on top on the Flat DMA I only expect it to go to the DMA) I'm going to close this trade, take the profit and wait to see if price closes above the Flat DMA before deciding whether to go Long or Short next.
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The DMA is visually Flat with price right underneath it. Purple is on top but still has control. On the DMA_H bars just turned Green and are getting shorter. Slope is pinned at -90 degrees with no evident clue as to what to expect next. Price is right below te 21- and 55-day MAVs and the 200- is well below current price.
To garner a bit more insight, I'm looking at the Weekly chart, and now I see that the last week's close was right at the Flat Weekly DMA with Gold on top. Price has dropped to the 76.40% Fib line and I'm taking a guess that we will bounce upward soon.
Back to the Daily chart. Price is below the short-term MAVs and above the 200, showing weakness and a propensity to test the longer MAV.
Remember that the BitCoin Halving event was on Saturday April 19, 2024. The pundits said that this event should make the market take off vertically."
So much for the pundits. Yes, it did take off on that very day, but it has paused right on the Flat DMA with Purple on top,
Last time I said: "The LIB lies below at 63,227 and the LOB at 60,711. That speaks to more action on the downside." And we got it.
@CL was down by -5.74 this week and now is sitting at 78.11.
Last time I was wrong. I thought there might be more room on the upside, and we did just the opposite.
SunnyBands are in a Sell signal (from 04/29/24 at 83.57) as price closed below the Flat DMA.
The price of gasoline in my neighborhood is now "down" to $5.39./gal. I saw one pump with price in $/litre. That'll make us think it's cheaper. Make the package smaller. Mark (in my TAWS meeting) told me that 1 gallon is 3.7854 Litres. Good to know!
Slope is now below the zero-line at -16 degrees and falling. Price has dropped in a march rather than a cascade. CL is now below the Attractor I had drawn at 80. In fact it is also ust about to touch the 50% Fib retracement. At that same level we have lots of price activity thhat tests it over and again (Attractors).
I would not be surprised to see some congestion at this 78 level followed by a slow move upward.
On the Weekly chart I see that we are in a long-term symmetrical triangle, or maybe it's a pennant or a wedge. Whatever you want to call it, it has been forming for months (now I'm looking at the Weekly chart). And now it is down to a fine point. Out from which it must break, one way or the other.
Gold (GC)
@GC was down by -38.6 this week and now is sitting at 2308.6.
"The Orange, downsloping trendline will need to be broken for a new up move to start. If the trendline continues to be Resistance then prices will drop lower." Price has not broken above the trendline yet, but it's not really declining either. The Range of the bars is just getting smaller.
We are in a Sell signal from 04/22/24 at 2,346.4. Current price in the after-hours is 2,303. That's a potential of 43 points per ounce.
Price is moving on sideways in a flat triangle with a bottom at 2,301. The downsloping Orange trendline (Attractor) is holding price down so far.
On the Monthly chart it is much clearer. Price is right now toying with the All Time High in 2011 at 2,339. That ATH got bested on 04/12/24 at 2,448. And now we sit at 2,301 in the after-hours session.
US T-BONDS 30 yr
@US was up by 1^31 this week and now is sitting at 115^30.
"Price is at the lower Linear Regression channel. Usually, if we are range bound, price will move up from there to touch the LR Line itself." And price this week moved up off the LOB and is now touching the Flat DMA with Purple on top.
We are in a Buy signal now from Monday's venture above the LOB and crossing the LIB at 114^19 on 04/29/24. Price is currently at 115^28 for just about 8 points potential profit.
When US goes down, the expectation is for Interest Rates to go up. This week price went up (right to the DMA) which must mean expectations are for lower interest rates. I don't believe it. I'm still thinking the Fed will do what it has been saying it will do for years. They haven't varied.
Last week price was at the lower Linear Regression channel. I said: "Usually, if we are range bound, price will move up from there to touch the LR Line itself." And it almost made it up to the LR line, with only 1 point to go.
The SunnyBands and DMA are forming a sideways channel with the UIB at 117.43616 and the UOB at 118.41949. The lower side of the channel is the LOB at 113.24383 and LIB at 114.22716. I'm expecting price to vascilate between those extremes for a while.
Stocks
AAPL was up by 14.08 this week and now is sitting at 183.38.
"I wouldn't be surprised if price rose to the UIB which is where the Orange trendline lies." Not only did it rise to the UIB, but it exceeded the UOB on a 15 point gap up on Friday.
SunnyBands rules now have me in a Buy signal from 04/24/24 at 169.02. Price is now at 183.78 for about +14 points of potential profit.
AAPL is now above everything. It's above all 3 MAVs, it's above the UOB, and Gold is now on top. Slope is now positive at +25 degrees. To see where this is going I'm going to open a longer-term chart. On the Weekly the trendlines I've drawn on the chart show clearly that price has just now touched the upper trendine. It is certainly possible that price could plow right through that, but it is more likely that it will do a bit of consolidating.
AMZN was up by 6.59 this week and now is sitting at 186.21.
"The DMA_H is now barely below the zero-line and (at -0.09) looks like it wants to go above it. Slope is below the zero-line at -8.62 but has some divergence with price that might mean it is about to go back up." And that's what it has done.
The current SunnyBands signal is Long from 04/26/24 at 179.62. Right now we are at 179.82 so that means a few cents of potential profit. The market is currently slowly rising and is above the Attractor that's at 167.79.
We had a Short trade from 04/15/24 at 183.62. that was closed with the current Buy signal at 179.62. That's about 4 points of potential profit from the Short. Now we are in a Buy signal from Thursday's close at 186.21.
The DMA_H is now barely above the zero-line and (at +0.2) looks like it wants to go on above it. Slope is above the zero-line at +11.03 degrees, and it looks like it wants to go up higher.
GOOGL was down by -4.71 this week and now is sitting at 167.24.
Last time I was on a luxury cruise and now I need to catch back up, so nothing to report here.
We are in a SunnyBands Buy signal from 03/08/24 at 135.41. Today's price is 152.50. That gives us about 22 points of potential profit.
GOOGL gapped up from 156 on Thursday of the week prior, to open at 174+ on Friday. Thats about 18 points! Nice gap. And it formed a new ATH! And, we were Long.
Because the DMA is rising with Gold on top, I'm not yet looking to take any short signals, even though they may appear on the chart. For as long as we are rising...we are rising.
The only way to analyze an ATH is on a longer chart. So, let's look at the Monthly. (Bring it up on your computer.) On this one price is above all 3 MAVs and Slope is positive at +70.72 degrees. To get an idea where up is from a high we need to pull Fib Retracements. Doing that tells me that the next level, at 23.6%) is at 200. Currently price is at 167.24. Doing that move up would bring us right to a Natural Number which will likely bring congestion. Of course, the ATH could lead to profit taking at this level. Beware!
Full disclosure: I have a large holding in GOOGL.
META
META was up by 8.67 this week and now is sitting at 451.96.
"META dropped the same way GOOGL rose: on a sizeable gap. It was a surprise but we were Short, so it's a happy surprise." And it has been recovering slowly all week. I closed the short position on 05/01/24 at 439.19 for a potentiial profit of 41 points. The Buy signal was subsequently confirmed on 05/02/24 at 441.68.
And then I said: "This is the configuration in which I begin to look for an exit from the Short trade. While price gapped down, it closed up on that candle. Friday's candle was a Doji that closed just above Thursday's candle. Thus, I'm out. I'm not going Long until I get more information, so I'm currently Flat." And that lasted just one day.
We are now Long from 05/02/24 at 441.68 with price moving up again on Friday.
At this juncture I'm cautious. Purple is on top and the DMA is Flat. I'm not "expecting" price to do much more than this under these conditions. So, I'm looking to see if it peaks above the DMA and falls back, or whether there is enough momentum to justify holding on to the long.
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META went sideways all week until Thursday when it picked up ar ran almost to the Flat DMA.
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