Sunday April 07, 2024 VOLUME 8 ISSUE 15
AAPL | AMZN | BTC | DOW | CL | ES | GC | GOOGL | HUM | META | MSFT | NVDA | SBUX | TSLA | US
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Sunny Side of the Street (SSS)
The charts below are now organized first alphabetically by commodities and then alphabetically by stock symbol. It should be easier to read and find the symbol you want to take a look at.
Vantage Point Prediction
This prediction is for Monday to go higher than Friday's close. What it doesn't tell us is the Close. Will we go higher and then close lower? Or will be start low and go up higher? The predicted high is 39,149 while the predicted low is 38,703. I mark the High and Low on my chart and watch the day's progress.
The moving averages are all 3 below the zero-line. The short-term crossed above the medium-term which I read as bullish. The short-term MAV has moved up to touch but not cross the long-term. That too I see as bullish.
In other words, there's a con
In other words, there's a conflicting signal here, or at least a warning to be careful.
Sharp moves like that in the MAVs have, in the recent past, led to more moves upward on this chart. Always be asking "what is true?
Take a look at the Monthly chart below.
Glenn Neely's Market Prediction
Glenn Neely has graciously granted us continued access to his weekly predictions! Take a look at how accurate Glenn's chart patterns have been with his NEoWave River Theory and NEoWave technology. See where he thinks it will go next.
To see his long-term forecast to 2060, Click Here. Tell Glenn sent you.
In today's chart is a Monthly view so you can see longer term predictions. Click on the link to http://www.NEoWave.com visit his website.
Overview (DOW & ES)
DOW ($INDU)
Chart
Statistics
$INDU was down by -903.33 this week and now is sitting at 38904.04.
Last Time I Said
"I do think we will at least reach up an touch the 40k level this week. Whether we stay at that level is another issue. Typically new ATH and Natural Number barriers are broken and then experience profi- taking before the up move resumes."
And the profit-taking happened, to the tune of -903.33 on the week!
In looking at the Natural Numbers chart (available in the Bonus Material for SSS subscribers only.) we see that 40,000 is the next upside target.
Current SunnyBands Signals
We are currently in a Sell signal from 04/04/24 at 38,597. Friday's close was at 38,904.04. We are in a losing position on this one, so far.
Analysis
The week was down by -903.33 points with the whole week being weak and moving down sharply. On Thursday the high was 39,421 and the low was 38,559. That's a Range of XXX points, closing down XXX points on the day.
For Reports, this week we have Sm. Biz Index, Economic Optimism, CPI, FOMC Speaker, Wholesale Inventories, Crude, 10-y Bond Auction, FOMC Minutes, Fedl Budget Balance, PPI, Unemplooyment, 30-y Bond Auction. AND it's Earnings Seasonagain starting Monday. Again, it's all fear and greed, so it could go either way.
And indeed it touched 40,000 just briefly (on a wick) but didn't stay there.
Monthly DOW
The Monthly chart looks to me like we have quite a bit farther up to go. The next Fib line on this chart lies overhead at 41,340! That's a 23.6% extension as I see it.
Beware! Price action (the Blue line) has crossed under the Orange projection and is now TOUCHING the UOB. Now, that makes me nervous. It could easily drop to the Fib line drawn previously at 34,742 or to the UIB at 35,693. Remember that this is a Monthly chart, so it's not likely to happen overnight, but like a roller coaster, the market goes up, the market goes down, you throw up.
ES (S&P 500)
@ES was down by -55.50 this week and now is sitting at 5253.00.
"Last week the ES gave a SunnyBands Sell signal on Wednesday that was Confirmed on Thursday at 5,218.0. It was not taken because Gold is on top and Slope is positive. Thus this week we are still in the Buy signal and holding."
And, as it happens, price was weak in the first part of the week and then put in a strong finish, just missing the ATH on Friday by a few cents.
We are in a SunnyBands Buy signal from 4,865 on 01/08/24 that was not overridden by the Sell signal (not taken bc Gold was still on top). That signal started on 01/05/24 at 4,798.25. We closed on Friday at 5308.50. That gives us 439 points of potential profit. The next Natural Number is at 5,400.
Last week the ES gave a SunnyBands Sell signal on Wednesday that was Confirmed on Thursday at 5,218.0. It was not taken because Gold is on top and Slope is positive. Thus this week we are still in the Buy signal and holding.
The Weekly chart gives us more information than the Daily. On the Daily we are just pushing up the top of the chart. On the Weekly it shows us that we have been moving steadily upward since 11/03/23 with few breaks. Nothing yet shows that we are about to take a break.
I hope it's not just my own irrational exhuberance, but I still think we are going up.
On the Monthly chart the configuration is different. It shows that it is just the last 2 months that have finally appeared above the ATH in January 2022. Instead of a blowoff, it looks like we are finally recovering.
Commodities
BitCoin (BTC)
@BTC was down by -3775 this week and now is sitting at 67755.
"The DMA is visually Flat with price right underneath it. Gold is on top but tentatively. On the DMA_H bars are Red and getting shorter. Slope is negative and Red. All taken together this picture suggests we have more room on the downside."
And, indeed, it has continued to move downward for most of the last week.
We are now in a Buy signal, from 71,900 on 03/25/24. With price now at 71,920 that's about 20 points of potential profit.
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The DMA is visually Flat with price right underneath it. Gold is on top but tentatively. On the DMA_H bars are Red and getting shorter. Slope is negative and Red. All taken together this picture suggests we have more room on the downside.
BUT, on the chart you'll see two orange trendlines that form a triangle (wedge or pennant). Price is congested right in that are and hasn't yet broken out.
Price is above all 3 MAVs, showing strength. I wouldn't be surpirsed this week to see price pop above the Attractor and move on up. Take a look at Glenn Neely's projections. Remember that the BitCoin Halving event is on Saturday April 19, 2024. The pundits say that this event should make the market take off vertically.
The LIB lies below at 63,078 and the LOB at 59,926. That speaks to more action on the downside. Au contraire, price is at the 23.6% Fib line which could contain further downdraughts. If not, then the next Fib line below is at 65,607 and then 58,488. Lookiing above, the next Fib line is at 88,619. If wishes were horses... then I'd like to see BTC move on up to higher ground.
@CL was up by 3.74 this week and now is sitting at 86.91.
"DMA Slope is still positive and Gold is on top."
And price has continued on up.. We are above the UOB with Gold on top and Slope positive.
SunnyBands are in a Buy signal (from 02/08/24 at 75.94.) as price wicked above the UOB. Gold is on top, soundly. Crude price is definitely rising. The DMA_H is Gold and rising. Slope is at 27 degrees, and price is well above all 3 MAVs. Currently price is at 85.94 for a bit of a drop since Friday, for a potential profit of 10points.
The price of gasoline in my neighborhood is now back up to $5.49./gal. I saw one pump with price in $/litre. That'll make us think it's cheaper. Make the package smaller. Mark (in my TAWS meeting) told me that 1 gallon is 3.7854 Litres. Good to know!
Slope is Positive but falling in the after-hours session and is now at 19 degrees and falling. Nothing on this chart says Down to me. YET. It looks like price will rise to about 88 before it considers slowing.
Gold (GC)
@GC was up by 107.0 this week and now is sitting at 2345.4.
"Price is moving on upward and is now right at the UOB at 2,262. In 2022 we had a high that wicked up to 2,275.5.. Now all we need to do is break this ATH. I'm looking for Gold at 2,300."
This week price moved up above the UIB and right past 2,300 and looks like it will move on up. To me it looks like it will continue on up, but possibly with breathers along the way. It could drop down and test the 2,300 level before resuming the move up.
I have a little inside information to share with you: in the evening session tonight price has moved down -20 points. So now it does look like we will test the 2,300 level if this is any gauge. We shall see what the week brings. But I stand by my higher prediction for the intermediate term.
We are in a Buy signal from 03/25/24 at 2,198.2. Current price in the after-hours is 2,344.5. That's a potential of 146.3 points per ounce.
Price is moving on upward and is now right at the UOB at 2341.5. In 2022 we had a high that wicked up to 2,275.5.. And now we've broken the previous ATH at 2,300 . I'm looking for Gold at 2,400 in the near future. In the after-hours market GC is up 0.5 points to 2,346
US T-BONDS 30 yr
@US was down by -2^29 this week and now is sitting at 117^17.
"This Buy signal is right at the Flat DMA with the DMA_H below the zero-line slightly. That's dangerous. Price has bounced off the LOB but price had already wicked up to the DMA where Purple is on top. Now it looks like we could use a bit of news to fall or rally. We are in a precarious position where Slope is negative, the DMA_H is under the zero-line but getting shorter. The DMA is Purple on top. All of this points to lower prices. BUT, I'm skeptical. To me it looks like we will at least poke around down at the 117^12 level where a strong Attractor lies."
And this week it continued on downward. It even got lower than my projection of 117 and is right now at 116^31.
We are in a Sell signal from 121^13 on 03/11/24. Price is currently at 116^30 for just about 4-1/2 points potential profit.
Marching on down. When US goes down, the expectation is for Interest Rates to go up. That tells you a bit about the current sentiment.
The SunnyBands are echoing that sentiment though not as steeply yet. Purple is on top and moving down, all 3 of the MAVs are virtually coincident right at the level of the DMA. (That's unusual.) On the Histogram, we have Purple bars getting longer, which tells me we have farther down to go. Slope is below the zero-line, Red and moving down. It all points down.
Stocks
AAPL was down by -1.90 this week and now is sitting at 169.58.
"AAPL is a great stock for trading, as is TSLA. Lots of cyclical moves up and down. It's great for swing trading with the swings being about 8 - 12 days long. It's not so good at trending."
Price made its way to the DMA briefly and then turned right around and bounded down on a big red candle and has continued on down. If that 8 - 12 day cycle holds, we are in for a turn-around.
SunnyBands rules now have me in a Sell signal from 03/21/24 at 174.81. Price is now at 169.47 for about +5 points of potential profit.
We have a Double Bottom at 168.18. Slope is -31 degrees.
AAPL is moving on down, now below the DMA, the LIB and is touching the LOB. The Histogram is under the zero-line and Purple, and getting deeper.
AMZN was up by 4.69 this week and now is sitting at 185.07.
"We are currently at 174.42 and still in a Buy signal. We have had several Sell setups but with Gold on top and rising, it's a no-go."
Are we moving sideways or up? It's difficult to tell. Arithmetically it's up, but it is doing it inch by inch staying above the Gold DMA.
The current SunnyBands signal is Long from 03/08/24 at 135.41. Right now we are at 179.82 so that means about 44 points of potential profit. The market is currently slowly rising and is above the Attractor that's at 167.79.
We have been in this Buy signal for a long time, raking in the potential profits. Price continues to climb toward the Attractor overhead at 188.35, which was the ATH of 188.65. Expect that when it gets there we will experience profit-taking.
The DMA_H is now Gold and getting longer (positive). Slope is below the zero-line but rising (positive). It wouldn't take much to have this thing move down to the DMA which is currently at 165. Be on your toes! It could just as easily power right up to the UOB at 183.84. At this point that looks like the more likely scenario.
GOOGL was up by 1.57 this week and now is sitting at 152.50.
"If I had to guess here, I would say that GOOGL is going to best the ATH and move on up to 170."
The close on Friday before this was at 150.66, just millimeters above the low aforementioned.
We are in a SunnyBands Buy signal from 03/08/24 at 135.41. Today's price is 152.50. That gives us about 22 points of potential profit.
The ATH on GOOGL is 153.78 from 04/01/2024 4 bars ago. We are almost at that level again with price currently at 152.50 leaving only 1/2 point to break it. And we did break above it.
Gold is on top and Slope is at +5.14 degrees. We have Red bars on the DMA_H, getting shorter. Price is right below the UIB. After a 6 point Gap on Monday 03/18/24 I'm looking for a bit of a correction.
If I had to guess here, I would say that GOOGL is going to best the ATH and move on up to 170. I say that by looking at the Fibonacci extensions on the down move from 2022. The first extension is at the 123.6% level and is right at 170.
Full disclosure: I have a large holding in GOOGL.
META
META was up by 41.76 this week and now is sitting at 527.34.
"On the Weekly chart it looks like META has more room on the upside. We are sitting on top of a strong Attractor at 487.50 and are below the UOB and UIB. If this Attractor doesn't hold, then the chart looks like it's turning over somewhat. All it woulld take to see this one turn down is a close beneath the DMA."
Until and unless price closes below the Flat DMA, this trade setup is not confirmed.
We are Long from 10/30/23 in a "long-term" signal. The SunnyBands Long signal was at 302.66 and with price currently at 527.34 that's a potential 224 points of profit. Imagine that on 100 shares!
This is the configuration in which I begin to look for an exit from the Long trade. If the next candle is Red and closes beneath the DMA then I'll reverse to a Short stance. But I'm expecting this consolidation above the DMA is a sign of strength and we will once again rise to new highs.
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META went in the upward direction all week with the highs creating new highs. The new ATH created Friday is now at 530.70.
The ATH was at 530.70 on Friday. When we make new ATHs, often a flurry of profit-taking ensues. There's now way to tell what this one will bring, so BEWARE.
Slope is positive at 59 degrees and is Green and above the zero-line.
MSFT
MSFT was up by 4.80 this week and now is sitting at 425.52.
"MSFT moved up nicely this week, generating a new ATH. And then, as is typical, there was profit-taking and MSFT moved back down. I don't think it is over; I still think as AI excitement continues MSFT will continue to profit."
And last week we had movement to the upside and a new ATH on Thursday at 430.82. It would appear that it is indeed, not over.
Right now we have a potential profit of about 50 points per share.
We are in a Long signal from 01/09/24 at 375.79. With current price at 425.52 that's about 50 points of potential profit.
MSFT moved up nicely last week, generating a new ATH. And then, as is typical, there was profit-taking and MSFT moved back down. In a show of strength price didn't even get down to the DMA (Gold on top) -- it didn't even wick down there. From the opening of the gates until the end of the week, MSFT moved up,c losing just under 5 points this week.
I think we are in for more. The next Attractor above is at a Fib line that lies at 440.81. That's 15 more points to the upside if it happens.
NVDA was down by -23.48 this week and now is sitting at 880.08.
"The SunnyBands are again on the move, with a new SunnyBands Buy signal from 02/22/24 at 785.38. Price is still between the UOB and UIB which is still strong, but I'm worried about the big Red candle on Friday."
And on Thursday this week it broke below the DMA after having the Setup on 03/27/24 and constitutes a Sell Trigger.
We are holding tight right now as the DMA is Flat and, while we have a Sell setup which was confirmed on Thursday by closing below the Flat DMA, I'm personally waiting for another down move under the DMA for confirmation..
Price is moving sideways right along with the Flat DMA. The Histogram is under the zero-line and moving down. Slope is Red and moving down. Price is below the 21-day MAV yet above the other two, by quite a bit.
It looks like price could correct down to the LIB at 844.65. With price now at 880.08 that's 36 points of potential profit to date.
TSLA was down by -10.89 this week and now is sitting at 164.90.
"On the Monthly chart the picture is pretty clear. The formation isn't exact, but it is reminescent of a large Head & Shoulders pattern. And the Linear Regression Channel on the right side of the chart shows how easily price could move on down to the LOB."
The Monthly chart looks like there is more in store on the downside. on theBonus page you'll see a Monthly chart of TSLA where you can clearly see the Linear Regression Channel moving downward with price riding along in tandem.
With SunnyBands, on the Daily chart, we were in a Sell signal last we spoke. Price action treated us to a move down from the Sell signal. We are still in a Sell signal with price trending on down in fits and starts.
TSLA is still very weak with the moves ticking lower.
The DMA still has Purple on top. Only briefly in the beginning of March did the Gold bars show up on the Histogram. Slope is under the zero-line and heading upward. Price is attempting to touch the DMA, with Purple on top. It could be repelled by the DMA, or it could push on through and turn the DMA Gold.
On the Monthly chart the picture is pretty clear. The formation isn't exact, but it is reminescent of a large Head & Shoulders pattern. And the Linear Regression Channel on the right side of the chart shows how easily price could move on down to the LOB.
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