Sunday May 19, 2024 VOLUME 8 ISSUE 20
AAPL | AMZN | BTC | DOW | CL | ES | GC | GOOGL | META | MSFT | NVDA | TSLA | US
Introduction
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Sunny Side of the Street (SSS)
The charts below are now organized first alphabetically by commodities and then alphabetically by stock symbol. It should be easier to read and find the symbol you want to take a look at.
VantagePoint Prediction
This prediction is for Monday to go higher than Friday's close and to stay above Friday's low. What it doesn't tell us is the Close. Will we go higher and then close lower? Or will be start low and go up higher?
The predicted high is 39,155 while the predicted low is 38,925. Not much of a range. I mark the High and Low on my chart and watch the day's progress with respect to the VP predictions. I'll even show you in TAWS; just remind me.
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The VP moving averages are all below the zero-line and falling. The short-term has turned flat but they are all getting very low.
Take a look at the Monthly chart below for more long-term insight.
Glenn Neely's Market Prediction
Glenn Neely has graciously granted us continued access to his weekly predictions! Take a look at how accurate Glenn's chart patterns have been with his NEoWave River Theory and NEoWave technology. See where he thinks it will go next.
To see his long-term forecast to 2060, Click Here. Tell Glenn I sent you.
In today's chart (which will be automatically when he releases the chart on Monday afternoon) is a Weekly view so you can see longer term predictions. Click on the link to http://www.NEoWave.com visit his website.
Overview (DOW & ES)
DOW ($INDU)
Chart
Statistics
$INDU was down by -934.00 this week and now is sitting at +39,069.59.
Last Time I Said
"This week we broke above 40,000 for the first time! Now the question is: will it stay there? I kinda think it will be tested. In fact, I think we are about to finish the 3-wave and enter a 4-wave correction. It could go up first to make the 3-wave longer. But when it finishes the 3 it should correct in a 4."
And that's exactly what we have done this week. We dropped -934.00 points this week, -605 of it on Friday. Pretty exciting!
Current SunnyBands Signals
We got a Sell signal on 05/22/24 at 39,671. Right now we are at 39,069 and have 602 points of potential profit.
Analysis
This week we certainly did just that. From the ATH we have corrected 3%. Yes that's not 10 or 20, so it's not deep yet. I believe we will drop farther, down to the LIB at 38884.23. It may not tet down to the LOB at 38655.04 but it's sure to scare the bulls out. And then when it gets down there and turns it will scare all the bears out in short-covering efforts. In fact, it might have already satisfied the 4-wave.
For Reports, this week we have Fed speaks, Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence and Fed speaks on Tuesday. On Wednesday we have more Fed speaks, Beige Book, Jobless Claims, Trade Balance, Retail Inventories and more. Here's the LINK to my source of data. AND it's Earnings Season still.The next big Fed Speak is June 11-12. Again, it's all fear and greed, so it could go either way. Here's a link to this week's critical reports.
Now it's 4 bars since the AtH We are currently below 40,000, and I think we are going to dip into the 38s.
The next Fib level on the Monthly chart lies overhead at 41,340 and I do think we will get there.
Monthly DOW
The Blue line on the Monthly is now above the UOB and just below the Orange Trendline I drew on the chart long ago. It looks like there is more room on the upside longer term. Exciting!
ES (S&P 500)
@ES was down by -5.75 this week and now is sitting at +5,321.50.
I thought it would go up a little bit more this week to finish the 3-wave, but I was wrong. It turned right over and started down. Not like the Dow, but still down. Will that mean that the ES is lagging or leading?
And this week the ES worked its way sideways unti Thursday when it dropped -66 points and then saw a Friday attempt at recovery.
We are in a SunnyBands Buy signal from 5047.50 on 04/22/24. Currently at 5,321.50 gives us a potential profit of +274 points per contract. At $50 per point this is $13,700 potential profit per contract in less than a month.
Price moved sideways this week and then closed the week on a weak note. Currently we are up a bit at xxx 5,332.75 in the after-hours market.
It looks to me like we will try to push above Friday's high. We sliced slickly through the Natural Number at 5,200 and now we are again testing the 5,300 level. If I had to guess, I'd say that our next stop is still at 5,400. Right now it's busy playing with the 5300 level.
Commodities
BitCoin (BTC)
@BTC was up by 2110 this week and now is sitting at +69,475.
"To garner a bit more insight, I'm looking at the Weekly chart, and now I see that the last week's close was right at the Flat Weekly DMA with Gold on top."
And this week price moved up slowly to rest over the Flat DMA.
We are now in a Buy signal, from 62,590 on 05/03/24. With price now at 66,520 that's about 3,930 points of potential profit.
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On the Monthly chart there is a Fib retracement line at the 76.4% level which is at 62,342. We are now below that at 61,650 in the after-hours. Technically that would say that we will likely move down to the next level at 54,380. If the downward momentum weakens it will likely just hit the LOB, which is now at 57,642.
To garner a bit more insight, I'm looking at the Weekly chart, and now I see that the last week's close was right at the Flat Weekly DMA with Gold on top. That is still the situation today, with Gold on top, but the DMA_H is getting close to the zero-line where it could drop through for lower prices. But I don't think that's what's happening. It looks like an impending bounce off the DMA.
Back to the Daily chart. Price is below the 55-day MAV and above the 200 and the 21, showing weakness and a propensity to test the shorter MAV.
We are now above the Flat DMA on the Daily with the DMA_H sloping up and Green. Those are positive signs for more upward movement.
@CL was down by -1.86 this week and now is sitting at +77.72.
"Slope is now below the zero-line and has turned red and is heading back down. But it's only minus 9.37 degrees. I would not be surprised to see some more congestion at this 78 level followed by a slow move upward." The first 2 days of the week were weak and downward, but the final 3 days were upward to the DMA.
SunnyBands are in a Buy signal (from 05/08/24 at 78.50) as price closed below the Flat DMA.
The price of gasoline in my neighborhood is now "down" to $5.29./gal. (Last week it was $5.39) I saw one pump with price in $/litre. That'll make us think it's cheaper. Make the package smaller. Mark (in my TAWS meeting) told me that 1 gallon is 3.7854 Litres. Good to know!
With the Slope Flat and Purple on top I expect price to be repelled from the DMA and move down a bit.
I would not be surprised to see some more congestion at this 78 level followed by a slow move upward.
On the Weekly chart I see that we are below the Flat DMA witih Purple on top. Slope is Flat and the DMA_H is approaching the zero-line which could present a stumbling block, or it could break through soundly.
Gold (GC)
@GC was down by -82.9 this week and now is sitting at +2,334.5.
"Price is moving on sideways in a flat triangle with a bottom at 2,301. The downsloping Orange trendline (Attractor) is holding price down so far." And then on Friday price broke above the DMA on a closing basis, so we have another Buy signal.
We were in a Sell signal last week, but on Friday price closed above the DMA, setting up a Buy signal on 05/10/24 at 2,375. The DMA is visually Flat but arithmetically it is at 36 degrees, which is certainly positive. That should promote further action on the up side this week.
I'm still looking for Gold at 2,500. With an ATH at 2,448 we don't have far to go.
Gold moved nicely up this week, up by 42.4 points. We are in a Flat channel with the SunnyBbands moving sideways. We are at the UOB and a forceful breakthrough could take us on up to the 2,500 level.
On the Monthly chart it is much clearer. Price is right now toying with the All Time High at 2,448+. We are only 24 points away from that.
The UOB is at 2,432.9 and price is above it.
US T-BONDS 30 yr
@US was down by -0^16 this week and now is sitting at +116.81250.
"This week price went up above the DMA which must mean expectations are for lower interest rates. I don't believe it. I'm still thinking the Fed will do what it has been saying it will do for 2 years. They haven't varied." So, this week price went from seriously Flat to reach up to the UOB and stumble. On Thursday and Friday price backed off from the UOB to touch the UIB.
We are in a Buy signal now from 04/29/24 at 114^19 and price is now at 117^10 giving us a potential of 3^23 points per contract.
Price on Wednesday closed above the UOB and on Thursday and Friday slid down a bit, with price now below the UIB. That's a SunnyBands Sell siignal, but the Flat DMA is only 2 points below so I'm closing the Long but not yet entering a Short until I see what it does with the DMA.
When US goes down, the expectation is for Interest Rates to go up. This week price went up above the DMA which must mean expectations are for lower interest rates. I don't believe it. I'm still thinking the Fed will do what it has been saying it will do for 2 years. They haven't varied.
A week ago price was at the lower Linear Regression channel. I said: "Usually, if we are range bound, price will move up from there to touch the LR Line itself." And price not only crossed the LR to the upside, it continued on to reach half the remaining distance.
Looking at the Daily chart it looks like price has turned down from the UOB and wants to drop to the Flat DMA which is exactly where the LR line is.
Overall picture? Looks like price will drop to the Flat DMA at 116.359, if they go that low. Price is rn at a significant Attractor that could hold prices from further moves down. Stay on your toes.
Stocks
AAPL was up by 0.11 this week and now is sitting at +189.98.
"AAPL is now above everything. It's above all 3 MAVs, it's above the UOB, and Gold is now on top. Slope is now positive at +25 degrees." And this week AAPL was generally up.
SunnyBands rules now have me in a Buy signal from 04/24/24 at 169.02. Price is now at 189.92 for about +21 points of potential profit.
AAPL broke the downsloping trendline with a sizeable gap. It hesitated the next couple of days but now has continued it progression upward. As ffar as Elliott Waves go we are either in a 1-2-3 or a 1-2-3-4-5. From that it tells me that we could have a 5th wave up that's over and a correction coming, or it could mean that we just finished a 3 and 4 and the 5th wave up is coming. Stay alert.
AMZN was down by -3.95 this week and now is sitting at +180.75.
"The DMA_H is now above the zero-line but flashing Gold and Red (indecision). Slope is right at the zero-line at -0.38 degrees, and it looks like it wants to go up higher." And this week was meandering as price slowly dropped from the UOB back to the DMA.
The current SunnyBands signal is Long from 04/26/24 at 179.62. Right now we are at 184.70 so that means about 5 points of potential profit. The market is capitulating at the moment and has dropped to the DMA.
We had a Short trade from 04/15/24 at 183.62. that was closed with the current Buy signal at 179.62. That's about 4 points of potential profit from the Short. Now we are in a Buy signal from Thursday's close at 186.21.
The DMA_H is now barely above the zero-line and (at +0.2) looks like it wants to go on above it. Slope is above the zero-line at +11.03 degrees, and it looks like it wants to go up higher.
GOOGL was down by -1.07 this week and now is sitting at +174.99.
"GOOGL gapped up from 156 on Thursday of the week prior, to open at 174+ on Friday. Thats about 18 points! Nice gap. And it formed a new ATH! Because the DMA is rising with Gold on top, I'm not yet looking to take any short signals, even though they may appear on the chart. For as long as we are rising...we are rising. And, we were Long." And we are still Long.
We are in a SunnyBands Buy signal from 03/08/24 at 135.41. Today's price is 176.06. That gives us about 40 points of potential profit per share.
GOOGL gapped up from 156 on Thursday of the week prior, to open at 174+ on Friday. Thats about 18 points! Nice gap. And it formed a new ATH! And, we were Long. And we are still long.
Because the DMA is rising with Gold on top, I'm not yet looking to take any short signals, even though they may appear on the chart. For as long as we are rising...we are rising.
The only way to analyze an ATH is on a longer chart. So, let's look at the Monthly. (Bring it up on your computer.) On this one price is above all 3 MAVs and Slope is positive at +74 degrees. To get an idea where up is from a high we need to pull Fib Extensions. Doing that tells me that the next level, at 23.6%) is at 200. Currently price is at 176.06. Doing that move up would bring us right to a Natural Number which will likely bring congestion. Of course, the ATH could lead to profit taking at this level. Beware!
Full disclosure: I have a large holding in GOOGL.
META
META was up by 6.31 this week and now is sitting at +478.22.
"At this juncture I'm cautious. Purple is on top and the DMA is Flat. I'm not "expecting" price to do much more than this under these conditions. So, I'm looking to see if it peaks above the DMA and falls back, or whether there is enough momentum to justify holding on to the long." As the action this week was all around the Flat DMA with Purple still on top.
We are now Long from 05/02/24 at 441.68 with price moving up again on Friday with price settling at 476.20.
I elected to take the profit and close thef long trade and take the profit. It amounted to almost 34 points potential profit.
I am now waiting for more information. What will price do next? Since it's right at the DMA it's questionable. Price is above the 21- & 200-day MAVs, but below the 55. To me that's bearish since that crossing is a "death cross."
And, the DMA is Flat. Price is flat too. Interestingly, however, while it ventured below the DMA this week, it dod not close below it. Purple is on top, Slope is Flat and the DMA_H is trying to rise. To me that looks like a positive sign.
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META went sideways to slightly up all week and halted at the DMA. Slope is Flat, DMA_H is under zero but rising and price was at the DMA all week. I'm hoping that was a 2-wave and we are going up by leaps and bounds soon.
TSLA was up by 1.78 this week and now is sitting at +179.24.
"We got a SunnyBands Buy signal on the Gap of 04/24/24, closing the Short at 162.13 for 26 points of potential profit. At the same time the bands went Long and price is now at 177.55 for a potential 6 points of profit so far.
With SunnyBands, we were down this week, right to the DMA, which is Flat with Gold on top. That tells me we just might have some bouncy action as it attempts to reach for the UOB. And it's almost there.
TSLA is still weak with the moves ticking sideways. But this latest move on a gap up was encouraging. The only problem is we didn't get the follow-through. Instead, price dropped right back down to the DMA. Which, BTW is Gold on top.
The DMA is Flat with Gold on top and price is sitting right on it. The SunnyBands are getting closer together and that often means an impending move.
On the Weekly the news is less promising. The Linear Regression Line is right above current price. In fact, it reached up and touched it.
Gold is now on top and the DMA is Flat and thus we are once again in a choppy period. Also, the SunnyBands are contracting and sideways. I haven't done the research yet but it looks like when they contract a big move is coming. This could easily be a 2 wave corrrection with the 3-wave coming next.
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