Sunday June 23, 2024 VOLUME 8 ISSUE 23
AAPL | AMZN | BTC | DOW | CL | ES | GC | GOOGL | META | MSFT | NVDA | TSLA | US
Introduction
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Sunny Side of the Street (SSS)
The charts below are now organized first alphabetically by commodities and then alphabetically by stock symbol. It should be easier to read and find the symbol you want to take a look at.
VantagePoint Prediction
This prediction is for Monday to go higher than Friday's close and to stay above Friday's low, though not by much What it doesn't tell us is the Close. Will we go higher and then close lower? Or will be start low and go up higher?
The predicted high is 39,329 while the predicted low is 39,085. That gives us a range of about 250 points for Monday . I mark the High and Low on my chart with a Horizontal Line and watch the day's progress with respect to the VP predictions. I'll even show you in TAWS; just remind me.
The moving averages are all above the zero-line and rising. Looks like we have a 3-wave forming which could speak to higher prices.
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The VP moving averages are all above the zero-line and climbling. The short-term has crossed above the others in a Bullish sign.
Take a look at the Monthly chart below for more long-term insight.
Glenn Neely's Market Prediction
Glenn Neely has graciously granted us continued access to his weekly predictions! Take a look at how accurate Glenn's chart patterns have been with his NEoWave River Theory and NEoWave technology. See where he thinks it will go next.
To see his long-term forecast to 2060, Click Here. Tell Glenn I sent you.
In today's chart (which will be automatically when he releases the chart on Monday afternoon) is a Weekly view so you can see longer term predictions. Click on the link to http://www.NEoWave.com visit his website.
Overview (DOW & ES)
DOW ($INDU)
Chart
Statistics
$INDU was up by 560.75 this week and now is sitting at +39,149.91.
Last Time I Said
Gone to North Carolina for 2 weeks.
Current SunnyBands Signals
On 05/31/24 we got a Buy Setup, but the next bar did not confirm it by closing higher. The following bar did confirm but by then it was too close to the DMA to capture much profit so I marked it with a Gray Vertical Bar meaning a Closed Trade.
We were up by 560.75 this week. Good goin'.
Analysis
This week we were up by 560.75 in a nice showing that took us above the Flat DMA, with Purple still on top.
This could easily be a DMA fakeout and come back down, or it could portend further movement to the upside. Another scenario: it could churn a bit more at the DMA.
The DMA_H is very near the zero-line with Green bars showing. Slope is quite positive, so it looks like the safer bet would be to the upside.
The Volatility Index ($VIX>X) is right at the DMA, on the underside, and only at 13. Until it starts going up sharply, we are still likely to move up.
For Reports, this week we have Here's the LINK to my source of data. AND it's Earnings Season still. The next big Fed Speak is June 11-12. Again, it's all fear and greed, so it could go either way. Here's a link to this week's critical reports.
I think we could see a steady progression on up to the UIB or maybe even the UOB, which lies at 39,690.45.
Now it's 22 bars since the ATH We are currently below 40,000, and I think we should see some congestion for a few days.
The next Fib level on the Monthly chart lies overhead at 41,340 and I do think we will get there.
Monthly DOW
The Blue line on the Monthly is now just beneath the UOB and below the Orange Trendline I drew on the chart long ago. It looks like there is more room on the upside longer term. Exciting!
ES (S&P 500)
@ES was up by 34.25 this week and now is sitting at +5,536.50.
We were in a SunnyBands Buy signal (until Friday) from 5047.50 on 04/22/24. The Gray Vertical Line denotes a Closed Trade. It means that, seeing two successive Red down candles, I closed the trade and took profits. The trade closed on 06/21/24 at 5524 for potential profits of 487 points. Times $50 = $24,350 in 2 months. Trading ONE contract.
Price started up this week and then the umpf petered out and went sideways the remainder of the week.
Before I left we were talking about the 5,200 level. NOW we are above 5,500. The 23.6% Fib line lies at 4,562 below, and the -23.6% line above at 5,725.
It looks suspiciously precarious. Two Red candles below the UOB is an Exit signal from the Long trade. Whether it drops to the DMA is now the question.
I'm thinking seriously now about going Short depending on tomorrow morning's action. There are 100 points between Friday's close and the DMA. That's worth having.
Commodities
BitCoin (BTC)
@BTC was down by -1320 this week and now is sitting at +64,320.
"The DMA_H is getting close to the zero-line where it could drop through for lower prices."
And drop it did, on down below the DMA, to the LIB. We shall see what the coming week brings.
We are now in a Sell signal, from 69,755 on 06/07/24. With price now at 64,320 that's about 5,435 points of potential profit.
It looks like it should drop on down to the LOB at 62,005.
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On the Monthly chart there is a Fib retracement line at the 76.4% level which is at 75,170.
To garner a bit more insight, I'm looking at the Weekly chart, and now I see that the last week's close was right at the DMA and the Orange trendline I have drawn. Gold is on top and that is still the situation today, with Gold on top, but the DMA_H is very close to the zero-line where it could drop through for lower prices. But I don't think that's what's happening. It looks like an impending bounce off the DMA, with the Slope of the DMA very positive.
Back to the Daily chart. Price is below the 21- and 55-day MAVs and only above the 200-.
We are holding on to the Short trade with 5,495 points of potential profit in it.
@CL was up by 2.54 this week and now is sitting at +80.59.
Gone to North Carolina for 2 weeks./p>
On 06/06/24 we got a confirmed SunnyBands Buy signal at 75.15. With price now at 80.59 we have a potential profit of 5.44 points.
The price of gasoline in my neighborhood is now flat again at $4.99./gal, even though the price of Crude is rising. (Two weeks ago it was $5.39) I saw one pump with price in $/litre. That'll make us think it's cheaper. Make the package smaller. Mark (in my TAWS meeting) told me that 1 gallon is 3.7854 Litres. Good to know!
The DMA is upward slopping with Gold on top. We have had one Red ccandle inside the UOB, which is a SetUp. If the next candle is Red and goes lower than the current one, it will either be an Exit signal or a Short signal. Depends on what? The distance from price to the DMA. If there is enough profit potential there it could be a Sell signal with a stop at the DMA.
On the Weekly chart I see that we have been right at the Flat DMA for the last 5 weeks. This week's candle closed above the DMA which is Bulllish on the Weekly. The Daily chart is the one that will generate the signal, so watch carefully.
Gold (GC)
@GC was down by -14.4 this week and now is sitting at +2,334.7.
We were in a SunnyBands Sell signal from 05/22/24 at 2415.7. At the Gray Vertical Line on 06//11/24 at 2326.6 we closed the Short for 89 points potential profit.
I'm still looking for Gold at 2,500. With an ATH at 2,448 we don't have far to go.
Gold is tricky in here, until we break above the Flat DMA with Purple on top, or break below the LOB, which is right where it closed on Friday.
The DMA_H is under the zero-line by quite a bit, but the bars are Gray, alerting me to the sideways movement of that market. Slope is negative and below the zero-line. I'm thinking it will drop to the Orange Attractor I've drawn at 2,320.
US T-BONDS 30 yr
@US was down by -0^21 this week and now is sitting at +119.78125.
We were in a Sell signal from 05/17/24 at 117^10 and price at the closing of the signal was 117^02 giving us a potential of 1^28 points per contract. Then we were in Cash until price closes above the DMA. And it did just that on 05/31/24 at 116^02 for a Buy signal which was closed (Gray Vertical Line) on 06/20/24 at 119^26 for a potential 03^24 points of profit.
Price this week meandered around between the UOB and the UIB all week.
When US goes down, the expectation is for Interest Rates to go up. This week and last price has been going upward as it bounced off the DMA on 06/11/24 and kept on climbing. You would think that means interest rates are going down. Since they aren't yet, I'm thinking this means that the market is already pricing in a rate cut in the fall. If it doesn't happen we will be in for a shock in the market.
Looking at the Weekly chart tells me that we probably have farther up to go, to the Attractor at 126^06. It will likely take a while as we are a ways from that level at this point. But I think the market is factoring in lower rates too early.
Stocks
AAPL was down by -5.00 this week and now is sitting at +207.49.
SunnyBands rules had me in a Buy signal from 04/24/24 at 169.02. An Exit Signal was generated on 06/20/24 at 209.68 for a potential profit of 349 per share. We are now in a potential Sell signal, but I'm not taking it unless it breaks below the DMA. Gold is on top and the DMA is Flat and there aren't enough points available for me to want to take a Short. I'm hanging out in Cash until price gives us another clue.
AAPL continues to climb and stumble and climb some more. Gold is on top with Slope at 8.53 degrees. That's almost Flat, so be careful!
AAPL made a new ATH this week and then, as is customary, price dropped sharply afterward. I expect it will hit the Flat DMA at 205 and bounce.
AMZN was up by 5.42 this week and now is sitting at +189.08.
The current SunnyBands signal is Long from 06/04/24 at 179.34. Right now we are at 189.08 so that means about 09 points of potential profit. The market is capitulating at the moment and yet is climbing to the UOB. Price is still in a sideways channel out from which it needs to break.
We are in a Short SunnyBands signal from 187.48 on 05/10/24. With current price at 176.27 that's about 11 points of potential profit.
Price is above all 3 MAVs but is in a painfully sideways channel on the Weekly AND the Daily charts. There is an Attractor at 188.35 that is holding down further price movement upward. I do think it will break this barrier and move on upward, IF the rest of the market echos.
GOOGL was up by 2.84 this week and now is sitting at +179.63.
We were in a Cash signal for 7 days before getting a confirmed SunnyBands Buy signal off the DMA bounce. We are Long from 173.17 on 06/03/24, and now with price at 179.62 we have a potential +06 points of profit.
GOOGL made another new ATH this week on Friday, at 179.63! The Daily, Weekly & Monthly all look like it's just onward and upward from here.
he next Earnings Report for Alphabet is July 23, 2024.
Let's take a look at the Monthly. (Bring it up on your computer.) On this one price is above all 3 MAVs and Slope is positive at +76 degrees. To get an idea where up is from a high we need to pull Fib Extensions. Doing that tells me that the next level, at 23.6%) is at 196.77. Currently price is at 179.63. That's a bit of a jump for GOOGL, if it happens. Of course, the recent ATH could lead to profit taking at this level. Beware!
Full disclosure: I have large holdings in GOOGL and NVDA.
META
META was down by -9.38 this week and now is sitting at +494.78.
We are now Flat and waiting for more information. I didn't take the following Short signal because the DMA is Flat and there aren't enough points between current price and the DMA to make it worth it.
I elected to take the profit and close the long trade and take the profit last week. It amounted to just over 9 points potential profit.
I am now waiting for more information. What will price do next? Since it's right at the DMA it's questionable. Price is above all 3 MAVs and Slope is slowing down, and in fact nearly at the zero-line. Further, the DMA_H is Gold on top, but showing Red bars and moving downward. It will take some time for it to drop to the zero-line, however.
And, the DMA is at 12 degrees, but it is falling and nearing the zero-line.
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META went virtually nowhere this week. Looking at the monthly chart tells me that there might be more room on the upside, but I don't trust it. I'm Flat for a reason.
NVDA was down by -5.31 this week and now is sitting at +126.57.
We entered a SunnyBands Buy signal on 04/26/24 at 877.35. Price is now at 1,270 (PRE SPLIT) for about 392 points of potential profit.
Post-Split price is 127.00. That's the price we will now use.
I've been holding NVDA all this time and am now wary of its current configuration. I bought more shares when price hit the Flat DMA.
Price moved down on Thursday and Friday, hitting the Flat DMA in a sharp move down. The DMA is Flat with Gold on top. In that configuration, and considering the prior Bullish moves, I'm expecting price to recover after a little more action at the DMA. Slope is at 14 degrees and just about to hit the zero-line. The DMA_H is showing that Gold is still on top but has Red bars that are getting shorter. They are not yet near the zero-line. It would take more Bearish activity on NVDA to get Purple on top.
TSLA was up by 5.00 this week and now is sitting at +183.01.
With SunnyBands, we are in a Buy position from 05/21/24 at 186.60. The position is not productive with price currently at 182.85. It's a loss of -4.35 points. So far I'm holding onto it. I believe TSLA will reach up and touch the Attractor at 195. At that point I might consider profit taking and waiting.
TSLA is still weak with the moves ticking sideways. The gap from 04/29/24 has now been filled by the churning. That could easily support an subsequent up move.
The DMA_H shows Gold on Top but it's moving upward right now. That would speak to higher prices.
The DMA is almost Flat (at 7 degrees) with Gold on top and price is sitting above it at the UIB. Price is also above the LR line's midline, but drifting back down toward it. I'm going to guess that price will touch the 21-day MAV possibly bounce, but more likely will drop to the DMA at 174.21 before it bounces.
On the Weekly the news is less promising. The Linear Regression Line is right at current price. but price is still below the DMA, which is Flat and Purple.
I'm still holding the Long positions, but I'm doubting it. Otherwise, it's still moving sideways.
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