Sunday June 30, 2024 VOLUME 8 ISSUE 24
AAPL | AMZN | BTC | DOW | CL | ES | GC | GOOGL | META | MSFT | NVDA | TSLA | US
Introduction
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Sunny Side of the Street (SSS)
The charts below are now organized first alphabetically by commodities and then alphabetically by stock symbol. It should be easier to read and find the symbol you want to take a look at.
VantagePoint Prediction
This prediction is for Monday to be lower than Friday's high and to stay above Friday's low, though not by much What it doesn't tell us is the Close. Will we go higher and then close lower? Or will be start low and go up higher?
The predicted high is 39,339 while the predicted low is 38,951. That gives us a range of about 387 points for Monday . I mark the High and Low on my chart with a Horizontal Line and watch the day's progress with respect to the VP predictions. I'll even show you in TAWS; just remind me.
The Short-Term moving average is below the zero-line while the other two are somewhat above the zero-line. Friday was an extreme day ending with a Doji with long wicks.
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The VP moving averages are all above the zero-line and climbling. The short-term has crossed above the others in a Bullish sign.
Take a look at the Monthly chart below for more long-term insight.
Glenn Neely's Market Prediction
Glenn Neely has graciously granted us continued access to his weekly predictions! Take a look at how accurate Glenn's chart patterns have been with his NEoWave River Theory and NEoWave technology. See where he thinks it will go next.
To see his long-term forecast to 2060, Click Here. Tell Glenn I sent you.
In today's chart (which will be automatically when he releases the chart on Monday afternoon) is a Weekly view so you can see longer term predictions. Click on the link to http://www.NEoWave.com visit his website.
Overview (DOW & ES)
DOW ($INDU)
Chart
Statistics
$INDU was down by -31.47 this week and now is sitting at +39,118.86.
Last Time I Said
"The DMA_H is very near the zero-line with Green bars showing. Slope is quite positive, so it looks like the safer bet would be to the upside." And this week was up and then down and then up again.
Current SunnyBands Signals
On 05/31/24 we got a Buy Setup, but the next bar did not confirm it by closing higher. The following bar did confirm but by then it was too close to the DMA to capture much profit so I marked it with a Gray Vertical Bar meaning a Closed Trade.
We were down by -31.47 this week. Not good, but not very bad either.
Analysis
This week we were down by -31.47 in a lackluster week. We closed the prior trade (if in one) upon getting a Red candle back down to the DMA.
The signal is for Cash at the moment. We need more information before choosing a side. As long as it's sideways, we do nothing.
For Reports, this week we have Here's the LINK to my source of data. The next big Fed Speak is July 30 - 31. Again, it's all fear and greed, so it could go either way. Here's a link to this week's critical reports.
I think we could see a steady progression on up to the UIB or maybe even the UOB, which lies at 39,740.
Now it's 27 bars since the ATH We are currently below 40,000, and I think we should see some congestion for a few days.
The next Fib level on the Monthly chart lies overhead at 41,340 and I do think we will get there, but it's going to take more time.
Monthly DOW
The Blue line on the Monthly is now just beneath the UOB and below the Orange Trendline I drew on the chart long ago. It looks like there is more room on the upside longer term. Exciting!
ES (S&P 500)
@ES was down by -12.75 this week and now is sitting at +5,521.50.
I"t looks suspiciously precarious. Two Red candles below the UOB is an Exit signal from the Long trade. Whether it drops to the DMA is now the question." And the ES was sideways all week. With the DMA_H Red and getting shorter, it even looks more precarious.
We have been in a SunnyBands Cash signal since 06/21/24 after realizing +442 points of potential profit. That times $50 per point is $21,100 in 2 months!
Price has gone nowhere fast this week. It was largely sideways and non-productive.
On the Natural Numbers chart we are stuck between 5,500 and 5,600. We need a breakout this week to clear the path.
Gold is on top in the DMA but Slope is winding down toward the zero-line on Red bars and Slope is above the zero-line but Red and getting lower.
Price is below the UIB and heading for the DMA. A break below the DMA could easily portend a Sell siignal.
Commodities
BitCoin (BTC)
@BTC was down by -4425 this week and now is sitting at +60,325.
"The DMA_H is getting close to the zero-line where it could drop through for lower prices."
And drop it did, on down below the Purple DMA, to the LOB. We shall see what the coming week brings.
We are now in a Sell signal, from 69,755 on 06/07/24. With price now at 60,325 that's about 9,430 points of potential profit.
It looks like it should drop back down to the LOB at 59,286.
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On the Monthly chart there is a Fib retracement line at the 76.4% level which is at 75,170.
Further
Further, Price is below the 21-Week MAV which doesn't bode well.
Back to the Daily chart. Price is below the 21- and 55-day MAVs and only above the 200-.
We are holding on to the Short trade with 9,430 points of potential profit in it.
@CL was up by 0.81 this week and now is sitting at +81.54.
"Gold is tricky in here, until we break above the Flat DMA with Purple on top, or break below the LOB, which is right where it closed on Friday.
On 06/06/24 we got a confirmed SunnyBands Buy signal at 75.15. With price now at 81.54 we have a potential profit of 6.39 points. At a BPV of $1,000 that's hefty!
The price of gasoline in my neighborhood is now flat again at $4.99./gal, even though the price of Crude is rising. (Two weeks ago it was $5.39) I saw one pump with price in $/litre. That'll make us think it's cheaper. Make the package smaller. Mark (in my Daily TAWS meeting) told me that 1 gallon is 3.7854 Litres. Good to know!
The DMA is upward slopping with Gold on top. We have had one Red candle inside the UOB, which is a SetUp. If the next candle is Red and goes lower than the current one, it will either be an Exit signal or a Short signal. Depends on what? The distance from price to the DMA. If there is enough profit potential there it could be a Sell signal with a stop at the DMA.
On the Weekly chart I see that we have been right at the Flat DMA for the last 6weeks. This week's candle closed above the DMA which is Bulllish on the Weekly. The Daily chart is the one that will generate the signal, so watch carefully.
Gold (GC)
@GC was up by 8.4 this week and now is sitting at +2,339.6.
Gone to North Carolina for 2 weeks.
We were in a SunnyBands Sell signal from 05/22/24 at 2415.7. At the Gray Vertical Line on 06//11/24 at 2326.6 we closed the Short for 89 points potential profit. At $100 per full point, that's a potential $8,910 profits in a month.
I'm still looking for Gold at 2,500. With an ATH at 2,448 we don't have far to go.
Gold is tricky in here, until we break above the Flat DMA with Purple on top, or break below the LOB, which is right where it closed on Friday.
Price
Price is also right at the Attractor on the chart, from which it could bounce. OR, it could break right through it and go farther down.
US T-BONDS 30 yr
@US was down by -1^15 this week and now is sitting at +118.31250.
"You would think that means interest rates are going down. Since they aren't yet, I'm thinking this means that the market is already pricing in a rate cut in the fall." And if that's the case, we will be in for a big surprise if the Fed doesn't reduce rates at least once this year. I don't think the market will like it.
We were in a Sell signal from 05/17/24 at 117^10 and price at the closing of the signal was 117^02 giving us a potential of 1^28 points per contract. Then we were in Cash until price closes above the DMA. And it did just that on 05/31/24 at 116^02 for a Buy signal which was closed (Gray Vertical Line) on 06/20/24 at 119^26 for a potential 03^24 points of profit.
Price this week we are in a Sell signal from the Red candle cross of the UIB on 06/26/24 at 118^30. That's about 20/32nds of a point of potential profit so far.
When US goes down, the expectation is for Interest Rates to go up. This week and last price has been going upward as it bounced off the DMA on 06/11/24 and kept on climbing. You would think that means interest rates are going down. Since they aren't yet, I'm thinking this means that the market is already pricing in a rate cut in the fall. If it doesn't happen we will be in for a shock in the market.
Looking at the Weekly chart tells me that we probably have farther down to go, to the LIB at least, if not on down to the LOB, currently at 115.702.
Stocks
AAPL was up by 3.13 this week and now is sitting at +210.62.
"AAPL continues to climb and stumble and climb some more. Gold is on top with Slope at 8.53 degrees. That's almost Flat, so be careful!" And careful was the order of the week. The prior week we exited the long and got into Cash. Thus the Gray Vertical Line.
SunnyBands rules had me in a Buy signal from 04/24/24 at 169.02. An Exit Signal was generated on 06/20/24 at 209.68 for a potential profit of 349 per share. We are now in a potential Sell signal, but I'm not taking it unless it breaks below the DMA. Gold is on top and the DMA is Flat and there aren't enough points available for me to want to take a Short. I'm hanging out in Cash until price gives us another clue.
AAPL is above all 3 MAVs and the 21-day MAV is below the DMA, adding a goal if it moves downward.
AAPL made a new ATH last week and then, as is customary, price dropped sharply afterward. Last time I said: "I expect it will hit the Flat DMA at 205 and bounce."
And I stand by that guess. Friday's bar was strongly down and we came to rest at 210.62. Price in the overnight session is at 211.66.
AMZN was up by 4.17 this week and now is sitting at +193.25.
"Price is above all 3 MAVs but is in a painfully sideways channel on the Weekly AND the Daily charts. There is an Attractor at 188.35 that is holding down further price movement upward." And yet, it moved up this week. Nevertheless, it turned on Friday and penetrated the UIB, giving me a Cash signal.
The most recent SunnyBands signal was Long from 06/04/24 at 179.34. Right now we are in Cash from the Gray Vertical Line on Friday. As it passed down to the UIB, I elected to close the position.
The move from 179.34 on 06/04/24 gained almost 14 points of potential profit during that run.
We are in a Long SunnyBands signal from 179.34 on 06/04/24. With current price at 182.56 that's about 14 points of potential profit.
Price is above all 3 MAVs but is in a painfully sideways channel on the Weekly AND the Daily charts. There is an Attractor at 188.35 that is holding down further price movement upward. I do think it will break this barrier and move on upward, IF the rest of the market echos.
We are in a precarious position riight now with the overall market not as solid as it has been. This week was sideways on the ES which makes me wonder whether it's positioned to get a bit of a retracement.
GOOGL was up by 2.52 this week and now is sitting at +182.15.
"GOOGL made another new ATH this week on Friday, at 179.63! The Daily, Weekly & Monthly all look like it's just onward and upward from here." And in response the stock went down on Friday. Harrumph!
I should have remembered how often markets go down right after making a new ATH.
We were in a Cash signal for 7 days before getting a confirmed SunnyBands Buy signal off the DMA bounce. We are Long from 173.17 on 06/03/24, and now with price at 182.15 we have a potential +09 points of profit. HOWEVER, we have a Red candle below the UOB and touching the UIB, tellling me that it might be a good idea to take profits and wait aside. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
GOOGL made another new ATH this week on Friday, at 179.63! The Daily, Weekly & Monthly all look like it's just onward and upward from here.
The next Earnings Report for Alphabet is July 23, 2024.
Let's take a look at the Monthly. (Bring it up on your computer.) On this one price is above all 3 MAVs and Slope is positive at +77 degrees. To get an idea where up is from a high we need to pull Fib Extensions. Doing that tells me that the next level, at 23.6%) is at 196.77. Currently price is at 182.15. That's a bit of a jump for GOOGL, if it happens. Of course, the recent ATH could lead to profit taking at this level. Beware!
Full disclosure: I have large holdings in GOOGL.
Here's a chart for you! This is my NEW "Boxes in Boxes" indicator. With this I can see Daily, Weekly & Monthly all on one chart. It works IntraDay as well.
META
META was up by 9.44 this week and now is sitting at +504.22.
"We are now Flat and waiting for more information. I didn't take the following Short signal because the DMA is Flat and there aren't enough points between current price and the DMA to make it worth it." We did go up this week, however, to the UOB. Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda. That would have been 18 points if I had been Long.
We are now still Flat META, but we got up to the UOB this week. BUT, as soon as it got there it turned around on Friday, passed through the UIB and headed for the DMA.
I think it will at least touch the DMA this coming week. With Gold solidly on top I expect price to come back off a bounce on the DMA.
With the difference between the DMA and the UOB being 26 points or so, I expect to go Long this week.
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META went up this week, and then down, almost to the DMA. I expect it to bounce off the DMA and continue making progress to the up side.
NVDA was down by -3.03 this week and now is sitting at +123.54.
"I've been holding NVDA all this time and am now wary of its current configuration." So last week I sold all of my NVDA shares. I'm watching for it to drop lower, and a place to buy back in.
We are Flat NVDA now. It dipped below the Flat DMA where it is still holding. Price will go down, and on the SunnyBands signal I'll be a buyer again. Or, it will go up in a show of strength and I'll be a buyer again.
There was a gappy down move last week taking price beneath the DMA (Flat with Gold on top) and nearly to the LIB. There is an Attractor at 118.48 that seems to be supporting price. The one above that, at 125.57, is acting as resistance.
I expect a down move this next week. Of course, I could be wrong but that's what it looks like to me. I think it wants to make progress toward the LIB at 116.65. If the DMA_Histogram continues on down and goes Purple on us, then it will try to drop to the 55-day MAV at 104 and change.
TSLA was up by 14.87 this week and now is sitting at +197.88.
"With SunnyBands, we are in a Buy position from 05/21/24 at 186.60. The position is not productive with price currently at 182.85. It's a loss of -4.35 points. So far I'm holding onto it. I believe TSLA will reach up and touch the Attractor at 195."
Not only did it do that, it did us one better: it got up to 203!
With SunnyBands, we are in a Buy position from 05/21/24 at 186.60. I still believe in this stock and the companies it represents. Yes, Musk is weird; he's an Aspie like my grandson. But he definitely is a forward thinker. Read "Elon Musk" by Walter Isaacson for more understanding.
TSLA has gathered some steam! In a steady move upward price has touched the Attractor at 203. I expect more from it.
The DMA_H shows Gold on Top and rising. We are very near the Linear Regression Channel top. I'm hoping for a breakout!
The DMA is rising with Gold on top. That's a very bullish sign. Slope is at 52+ degrees and climbing.
On the Weekly the news is less promising. The Linear Regression Line is right at current price. but price is still below the DMA, which is Flat and Purple. With the DMA Flat for an extended period I'm hoping for a breakout as the Histogram gets closer and closer to the zero-line.
I'm still holding the Long positions, but I'm concerned about it. Otherwise, it's still moving sideways.
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