Sunday December 25, 2022 VOLUME 6 ISSUE 41 (the last of the year)
MERRY CHRISTMAS and Happy Hanukkah! to All. May this next year bring Peace!
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"You can use SunnyBands for Options on QQQ. When it goes purple I go! It's a sure bet. Price crosses above LOB sometimes, wait for a couple bars within LOB. Catch it on Friday on options expiration sell puts and it's a sure thing! I did it on TSLA too." - Aaron R.
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Podcast: The Sunny Harris Show! with Sam Tennis
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The most recent Episode is with master trader and educator Linda Bradford Raschke and before that CMT Robert Colby, and a historical visit with Larry Williams who is the master of commodity and futures trading as well as the prolific author of 11 books. Get to know him personally! The podcast is not to miss. Before that were legends Wally Olopade, Price Headley, Jody Samuels, Harry Boxer and Peter Eliades and then Michael Filighera illustrious Elliottician. Past episodes include: Glenn Neely (Elliott Wave Expert: neowave.com), Perry Kaufman (prolific author and master trader: kaufmansignals.com), and technical Rock Star Tim Slater. Upcoming episodes include Norman Hallett, Robert Colby , Larry Pesavento, Linda Bradford Raschke, Ted Hearne and Carolyn Boroden. I listen to Podcasts while I trade! You don't have to just sit there and listen and do nothing else.
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QUICKLINKS: VantagePoint | Last Week I said | Dow | ES | SunnyBands Implications | Trading Room | Automated Strategy | Multiple Timeframes | Stocks | Oil | BitCoin & Etherium | Gold | Bonds | Diatribe | DEFINITIONS| Quips & Quotes
VantagePoint ai Prediction for Tomorrow
VP clearly projects the anticipated direction and magniture of tomorrow’s market. You can use any symbol; I trade the EMini S&P.
My read of this chart tells me that All Three of the Moving Averages (MAVs) are confused. Two of the averages are below the zero-line and moving upward, though slightly, and the short-term average is moving down toward the zero-line. The bar at the bottom of the chart is yellow, signalling caution.
The prediction for Monday calls for a high of 33,331,78 and the low of 32,793.85. It is an Outside Day prediction which could lead to more volatility Tuesday when the market opens again. (We have Monday off.)
Glenn Neely's S&P Prediction
Take a look at how accurate Glenn's chart patterns have been with his NEoWave River Theory and NEoWave technology. See where he thinks it will go next. Click on the link to visit his website.
Notice that he called for this down move followed by an up move over 6 weeks ago, which happened and now he thinks we will continue upward in a correction as much as half way up between recent highs and recent lows.
Here is the Weekly NEoWave projection of the S&P. He posts it on Monday afternoons, so it will be updated then.
http://www.neowave.com
SunnyBands Implications
Dow Jones
The stats for the Dow are:
The Dow is moving up and yet is testing the down-sloping trendline (orange) from above. I certainly don't know if it's still a Bear market, but we've had lots (4) of attempts to break the down cycle only to fail.
This move up definitely broke the trendline but is now trying to test and possibly bounce off that line. If the market bounces off the trendline we might have a Bull move starting. If not, well, we are looking at more downside action.
Since the January '22 all-time high at 36,952 we have had up-moves (Bear Rallys) 4 times. Each time the public thought "oh yay, the bear market has ended." And, of course, that brought in buyers who pumped it higher, only to get fooled by resuming down moves. Who knows this time; maybe the downdraft is over, and maybe not. Larry Williams told us in the Podcast that we would be moving up and have a Santa Claus rally, and we are, so far.
The strong Attractor overhead at 34,237 was broken on 12/2/22 and appeared bullish. Last time I said: "It seems likely we will be, at the least, attempting to touch that area if not break above it." And the Dow spent the week going upwards, breaking above the Attractor. And yet, it turned right back downward almost immediately.
Keep in mind that markets never go straight up or straight down. We always move in fits and starts.
The Podcasts of Linda Bradford Raschke, Anka Metcalf and Robert Colby are now posted, Enjoy two great interviews. Linda Bradford Raschke coming Next!
We are currently below the 21-day Moving Average (MAV) and yet barely above the 50- and 200-day MAVs. It wouldn't take much of a down move to negate that and be below all 3 again.
Price, the TrendLine and the MAVs are all in conjunction, awaiting more information. Will Tuesday bring more bulls, or more bears?
The DMA_Histogram has been showing Red for weeks and has ducked under the zero-line, turning Purple. That's Bearish in my book. Personally, my guess is the Dow will make its way down toward 31,500.
S&P 500
The stats for ES are:
We are not recovering in the S&P 500 as well as in the Dow 30 Industrials. As a broader index the S&P has more volatile stocks in it.
The DMA_H has been Red for the last 2 weeks with the exception of a Gold day or two, and yet today's bar is now Purple, showing we are below the zero-line and Purple is on top.
To me that's Bearish.
The ES is not faring as well as the Dow, failing to break above the down-sloping trendline evident on the Dow.
It looks to me like the ES is heading down to the Attractor that lies at 3,660. Current price is 3,868, so that about 200 points on the downside if I'm right.
REPORTS THIS WEEK:
Quips & Quotes
Here are a few quotes from my users these past weeks:
"I made $5,772 on the first day of my free trial of SunnyBands. It told me exactly where the turns were, even with the high volatility today. You are one of the very few people that allows test drives. It's nothing short of amazing!" -Aaron R.
"I want you to know that you’re truly an amazing person and how grateful we are to have you as a mentor/teacher. We Love You." - TJ N.
"Nice Bands! This morning I did a couple of quick MES buys and sells. Then I bought into an upward moving ES [signaled by the DMA_H]. Followed it to the top [SunnyBand]. Closed. Sold short at the top [SunnyBand.] Followed it to the bottom [SunnyBand]. A $4,000 account (what I had moved to the Futures account) returned about $2,000. Doesn’t get any better than that!". - Don M.
DMA_Histogram in Various TimeFrames
Here we have several different time frames on the ES Continuous Contract. This is a view of the RadarScreen with the DMA_Histogram showing the Direction of the DMA and what color it is.
When the DMA_Histogram turns Gold it means that the Gold DMA is on top. When it turns Purple it means that the Purple DMA is on top.
While Purple is on top and the DMA_H is below the zero-line it turns Green to highlight change of trend and the possibility of a Bullish movement.
While Gold is on top and the DMA_H is above the zero-line it turns Red to highlight change of trend and the possibility of a Bearish movement.
Note, I always wait for Price Action to confirm the move before taking a position.
This configuration tells me that all these timeframes are Negative except the Weekly, which is "turning up" from a bearish position.
RadarScreen of Stocks
Here again, back by popular demand, is my RadarScreen of Stocks:
I sorted on the PHW this time to see which symbols produce the most potential profit. Notice that the report is very mixed. We have lots of Gold, Red and Green, and Purple. So, it's showing that these stocks are largely mixed but the Red ones are showing that while still bulish, are turning down.
Stock Scan for those Above all 3 MAVs
Notice that, of the 3,600 stocks I scan, there are now 286 stocks above their 3 MAVs. Last time there were 798 stocks above all three. This is a bit of a retreat.
Stocks
KDP: Keuring Dr. Pepper
The stats for KDP are:
When I publicly recommended this stock in David Kosmider's TimingResearch "Lightning Round #1" price was down at 34.94. It is now back up to 38.25. Still profitable at just about $1.43 per share. I'm not giving up my coffee.
The chart shows lots of gyrations as it moves along it path.
The daily chart, shown here, looks listless; but the weekly chart (not shown) looks "steady as she goes."
There are lots of Pennant formations on the chart speaking to belabored moves. Those signify lots of sideways action. I trade the Pennants by waiting for a breakout to one side or the other from the red horizontal lines on the top or bottom of the Pennant. Now we broke the most recent Pennant only to fall right back inside it.
All 3 MAVs (21-, 50- and 200-day) are grouped together right at current price and price is below all three. Purple (DMA) is on top speaking to the current negative situation.
I, an avid coffee drinker, (I'm having a cup while I write this) believed that this non-alcholic beverage vendor would continue to thrive. Keuring is a great coffeemaker and very popular. They even have one at my hairdresser's.
The stats for SBUX are:
Now let's consider this coffee company: SBUX.
Though down a bit on the week, the slow and steady progrss of SBUX has been upward.
Watch out, though, there is a Strong Attractor at 90.00 that could be broken to the downside.
When SBUX breaks above the 21-day MAV I'll be a buyer again.
HUM
HUM is up (+10.43 points) this week after making a new all-time high only weeks ago with price currently at 513.96.
The stats for HUM are:
Last Close = +513.96 : the close Friday was at +513.96. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+503.53) = +10.43 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +546.97 UIB = +538.35 MidLine = +522.50 MidAngle = -24.11 LIB = +506.65 LOB = +498.03 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 528.80 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 531.13 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 481.62 - Above Color of DMA_H = Green All Time High = +571.30 Percent = -10.04%
HUM is up this week by +10.43 points. It is now seriously bouncing off the Lower Outer SunnyBands (LOB) and heading for the Flat DMA. With it Flat I only expect price to rise to the DMA at about 522.50. At that point it is likely to bounce around before deciding whether it will go up or down from there.
Nevertheless, HUM continues to perform well overall.
The DMA_H turned Purple on 12/09/22 after being weakly Green. It then turned Green again on 12/21/22 and has been moving up from the LOB.
AMZN
The stats for AMZN are:
Last Close = +85.25 : the close Friday was at +85.25. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+87.86) = -2.61 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +98.13 UIB = +95.37 MidLine = +90.67 MidAngle = -27.59 LIB = +85.97 LOB = +83.21 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 90.00 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 96.92 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 120.65 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green All Time High = +188.65 Percent = -54.81%
AMZN is below all 3 MAVs.
Down, down, down. This chart looks "puny" as they say where I'm from. AMZN is down on the week by -2.61 points which isn't so bad in and of itself, but it's the continuation that is disturbing. AMZN is down over 54% from its all-time high.
Price is right at the LOB and not showing any signs yet of bouncing. Purple has been on top for months and doesn't show any signs of turning up either.
TSLA
The stats for TSLA on a Weekly Chart are:
Last Close = +123.15 : the close Friday was at +123.15. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+123.15) = 0.00 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +279.18 UIB = +256.62 MidLine = +214.13 MidAngle = -85.01 LIB = +171.64 LOB = +149.08 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 231.98 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 260.89 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 164.34 - Below Color of DMA_H = Purple All Time High = +414.50 Percent = -70.29%
Cathy Wood's 5-year projection for TSLA (chart below) is still at 4,600 which would translate to 1,500 post split; she lowered her projection a few months ago. Several other pundits I keep track of are suggesting a much higher price also. The split should have been bullish but remember that we may still be in a Bear market.
It's currently downover 70% from its all time high. On last time's chart TSLA formed a Double-Bottom which did not hold. Price dropped soundly on news that Elon Musk is micro-managing TWTR and he sold $4b worth of TSLA stock to cover expenses.
The SunnyBands Sell signal was on 9/21/22 at 300.80. That makes a potential short trade profit of $178.60 per share. The DMA_H is showing mostly Purple (Bearish!), with Purple on Top. That is just saying that the moves downward are steady, and in fact they are no longer creating Pennant formations, but rather moving steadily down.
VantagePoint is calling for an Outside Day tomorrow with a high of 129.38 tomorrow and a low of 118.99. I'm thinking 115 might be a good place to buy some shares again. I'll wait for the DMA_H and DMA to confirm first, though.
This is still my favorite stock. But, at this point I'm a trader, not an investor yet. Not unless and until it passes and holds above the Flat DMA.
Seems to me people should be flocking to TSLA with gas prices high still. It is now down to $4.50/gal in my neighborhood.
I still believe we will continue to turn to carbon-neutral technologies and electric vehicles. I have not yet purchased their vehicle because I'm waiting for better batteries. I would want to get to LA and back on one charge before it is viable technology in my mind. When the batteries are better I expect this stock to really take off.
Notice that I think TSLA is still a good buy for lots of fundamental reasons (not the least of which is lower prices and a huge run-up potential.) Nevertheless, TSLA has dropped nearly 70% from its high and is now continuing to make new lows. Maybe.
ARKK
The stats for ARKK are:
Last Close = +30.97 : the close Friday was at +30.97. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+33.26) = -2.29 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +38.22 UIB = +36.91 MidLine = +34.53 MidAngle = -20.81 LIB = +32.16 LOB = +30.85 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 34.56 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 35.79 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 44.41 - Below Color of DMA_H = Purple All Time High = +159.70 Percent = -80.61%
Months ago I said I thought ARKK price would tick on down to the LOB and possibly beyond. It did just that. But, currently she is below all 3 of the MAVs and is still sitting below the LOB, probably with more to go on the downside.
Who's On Top at the bottom of the chart is still Purple, and it has been Purple/Light Purple for a long time.
When the DMA MidLine is Flat I watch closely for Price to tell me the next direction. Don't jump the Flat DMA.
When you think about your own trading successes (or lack thereof), take a look at what one of the most notable traders (Cathy Wood) has done. Don't feel bad. It happens to the best of us.
ARKK bought 6,786 shares of ROKU on Friday. and 20,458 shares of TSLA --> in her holdings as of Friday's report.
I do think, still, that she over-trades. And bottom fishing is a risky business!
Tonight's chart is on a Daily timeframe. You'll note that the is now breaching the previous lows and needs to best that to keep face. Otherwise she's losing eveything she gained over the last 2 years.
MSFT
Last Close = +238.73 : the close Friday was at +238.73. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+244.69) = -5.96 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +259.65 UIB = +253.61 MidLine = +243.87 MidAngle = -16.70 LIB = +234.12 LOB = +228.08 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 247.19 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 240.65 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 261.93 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red All Time High = +349.67 Percent = -31.73%
MSFT (closing at 238.73 Friday, down -5.96 on the week) is below all 3 MAVs . The DMA MidLine (at 243.87) is now moving slightly downward, with Purple on top, which tells me price is barely above the UIB and likely heading for the LOB at 228.08.
Generally when it touches the LOB it continues to push it downward. Thus, I'm expecting more downside action this week.
Price is now back below the DMA, and touching the LIB. It's now likely to move on down to the LOB.
The DMA_H signalled a Buy on 11/04/22 at 221, if and only if it is confirmed by Price Action, which it was confirmed on 11/04/22 at 221.39. Price continued upward to 12/01/22 at 254.69 where it signaled a sell. That would have been a potential profit of $33 per share.
Now it is below all three MAVs and is trying to move on down to the LOB. We never really know, but we keep our eyes on the bouncing ball (SM_CurrentPrice). I always wait for price action to confirm.
The long-term trendline now shows that MSFT is down -31.73% from its all-time high. This is one of the reasons we are still in a Bear market.
The NASDAQ (where the tech stocks live) is also down -34.81% since January. Now that's a Bear Market to me. Reminds me of 2000-2002 when it was down -78%. We shall see...
Don't you think you should purchase the SunnyBands and DMA_H for your own? Sure helps Profits! Are you serious about making money trading? You're leaving money on the table if you aren't trading with SunnyBands.
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Buy the DMA_H and SunnyBands for yourself. They are life savers. I totally rely on them for my own trading. And I want you to have the success you deserve! You can have these indicators for yourself. They are a great trading tool! And now I have a new indicator that plots a series of colored dots letting you see at a glance Who's On Top, Purple or Gold. Here's what it looks like. It is the series of Purple and Gold dots at the bottom of the chart.
Please join my Podcast (The Sunny Harris Show! with Sam Tennis). It's a lot of fun getting to know the Gurus from a personal standpoint and hear their predictions for the coming market. I listen to podcasts while I trade. The most recent Podcast is with Anka Metcalf of TradeOutLoud.
Oil
The stats for CL are:
Crude Light (CL) on a Daily chart (closing at +79.56 Friday) was up +5.10 on the week and now gas at my pump is up a bit to $4.80/gal.
And now Biden has opened Venezuela for Chevron to pump oil after their president allocated $30m to humanity efforts. And yet we are again filling up our reserves which is likely to bring prices back up.
The DMA Histogram signalled Bullish on 12/12/22 at 73.12. It is currently at 79.35, for a potential of +6.23 points per contract so far.
On the weekly chart we are in a tight congestion pattern moving on downward since 6/17/22. Price is well below the DMA MidLine and continuing on down since the high on 3/11/22.
CL is below the down-sloping DMA which shows Purple on top.
There is a strong Attractor at 69.00.
Putin will decide where price is going next. If, and it looks likely, Russia begins to support Kaliningrad to the West of Lithuania and North of Poland we will get into a war with Putin defending Lithuania and Poland, members of the EU. If that happens, crude will be needed to support the war and prices will respond.
BitCoin, Etherium, Gold, Bonds
BitCoin
The stats for BTC are:
Last Close = +16,780 : the close Friday was at +16,780. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+16,775) = +5 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +18,452 UIB = +17,984 MidLine = +17,240 MidAngle = -83.54 LIB = +16,497 LOB = +16,028 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 16884.52 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 17545.30 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 24832.10 - Below Color of DMA_H = Purple All Time High = +69,510 Percent = -75.86%
BitCoin is down just about 76% since its all time high of 69,965 on 11/10/21. The news of FTX's collapse has everything to do with the public's confidence in Crypto currencies, at least for the moment.
There is a horizontal line on the Monthly Chart. Coming from the lows of 2020 this line should hold or it looks like we are in for a further collapse of BitCoin. The line is at 16,508. Watch that area carefully.
Purple is still on top on the daily chart of the DMA with the Histogram showing Purple for the last several days after showing Green off and on for a few days.
It is struggling while deciding where to go next.
In our Podcast interview with Ted Hearne last month, he pointed out that the stock market is going down and Bitcoin is going sideways. He believes that shows strength in BitCoin.
There are 4 interlocking Pennant formations on the Daily chart, showing extreme congestion. I've never seen that before. There's nowhere to go but to burst out in one direction or the other. Price is sitting on the LOB with Purple on top and both Outer bands curving inward. Something is about to happen soon.
Ethereum
The stats for Ethereum are:
Symbol "ETHUSD", Bar Type = Daily Last Close = +1,222.42 : the close Friday was at +1,222.42. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+1,194.49) = +27.93 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +1,409.11 UIB = +1,364.05 MidLine = +1,287.97 MidAngle = -57.91 LIB = +1,211.89 LOB = +1,166.83 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 1245.14 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 1305.50 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 1752.79 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green All Time High = +4,867.81 Percent = -74.89%
As you know, I haven't held any BitCoin. Instead, I have had ETHUSD (Ethereum) since its low in May 2021. I'm still holding ETHUSD and intend to hold it for years just to see what happens. Currently it is below my buy-in point. Why not sell? Because I'm in this one for the long-term and expect it to take off at some point. If it doesn't, oh well. It was an interesting experiment.
The chart of ETHUSD is now moving somewhat upward. It too is in a tight congestion pattern with 3 consecutive Pennant Formations, one within the other. Price can only continue to squeeze to zero for just so long before it bursts out--one direction or the other.
Like BTC ETHUSD is reacting to the news of FTX's collapse. What happens to bank stocks after a big heist? Same thing. But then they bounce back.
Gold
The stats for Gold are:
Last Close = +1,804.2 : the close Friday was at +1,804.2. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+1,800.2) = +4.0 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +1,842.0 UIB = +1,820.4 MidLine = +1,785.6 MidAngle = 11.03 LIB = +1,750.9 LOB = +1,729.3 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 1796.14 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 1747.90 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 1814.89 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red All Time High = +2,122.7 Percent = -15.00%
Gold. Gold is up since 10/21/22 and is up 4 points since last week. That is to say, it has been recovering nicely. Probably since the collapse of Cryptos.
The DMA is still Gold on Top. The Buy signal came on 11/04/22 at 1676.60 and price is now 1816, for a potential long trade profit of almost $139 per contract. It pays to trade with SunnyBands and the DMA_H.
Price is above the DMA with Gold on Top. The DMA is fairly flat which makes me think price will bounce upward after playing a bit with the DMA and go on up to the UOB which is at 1,842.
Gold is above the two short-term MAVs but still below the 200-day MAV. NOTE: Glenn Neely (of NEoWave Forecasting, and our 4th Podcast) thinks Gold has an up-move coming for the near future. It's a riveting Podcast!
Bonds
The stats for @US are:
Last Close = +127.15625 : the close Friday was at +127.15625. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+131.15625) = -4.00000 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +132.24361 UIB = +130.87417 MidLine = +128.60500 MidAngle = -2.72 LIB = +126.33583 LOB = +124.96639 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 129.37 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 125.34 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 134.51 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red All Time High = +167.12500 Percent = -23.92%
Bonds are up on the week by +4 points.
On Christmas day Bonds are at 127.15625.
On the monthly chart bonds are in a clear downward progression since 4/30/20. And headed lower. Bonds go lower, interest rates go higher.
In fact, price is right at the 200-period MAV and bouncing slightly upward this past month. That could support further relief from ever-increasing interest rates.
Bonds go down, yields go up. Bonds go up, yields go down. In fact, the 2-yr / 10-year Treasuries yield curve is now inverted again; that is the yield on the short-term treasuries is less than the yield on the longer-term. Looks like we are expecting even more inflation and higher interest rates, probably by another 0.50-0.75 points this next time.
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Sunny has been teaching others to trade almost as long as she has been trading. Helping struggling novices over the hurdles is a passion of hers. Sunny has won awards for her teaching and consulting, being #1 in several categories. Sunny can teach you how to use TradeStation & MultiCharts and EasyLanguage and PowerLanguage, TC2000, VantagePoint, NinjaTrader, Genesis Navigator, and MetaStock so you don’t spend months struggling on your own. If you have a concept you want programmed, she can do it for you or teach you how to do it yourself. Click Here.
We provide a wide range of software programmed by Sunny for her own trading. We are not a churn and burn shop that puts out lots of indicators for sale, just to have products to sell.
Each of these unique products is available to help others in their quest for profits. And, they are used by Sunny in her own daily trading. The software includes indicators that make trading smooth and easy, and strategies that can even be automated to provide hands-off trading. Click here for a full list, descriptions, charts and prices.
