Sunday July 14, 2024 VOLUME 8 ISSUE 26
AAPL | AMZN | BTC | DOW | CL | ES | GC | GOOGL | META | MSFT | NVDA | TSLA | US
Introduction
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Sunny Side of the Street (SSS)
The charts below are now organized first alphabetically by commodities and then alphabetically by stock symbol. It should be easier to read and find the symbol you want to take a look at.
DOW: | BTC: | TSLA: |
AAPL: | META: | GOOGL: |
VantagePoint Prediction
This prediction is for Monday to be lower than Friday's high and to stay above Friday's low, though not by much What it doesn't tell us is the Close. Will we go higher and then close lower? Or will be start low and go up higher?
The predicted high is 40,258 while the predicted low is 39,912. That gives us a range of about 345 points for Monday . I mark the High and Low on my chart with Horizontal Lines and watch the day's progress with respect to the VP predictions. I'll even show you in TAWS; just remind me.
The moving averages are sloping upward together, all 3 coincident. Definitely looks positive.
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The VP moving averages are all above the zero-line and climbing.
Take a look at the Monthly chart below for more long-term insight.
Overview (DOW & ES)
Chart
Statistics
Created : 07/13/2024 03:19pm$INDU was up by 625.03 this week and now is sitting at +40,000.90.
Last Time I Said
"The signal is still for Cash at the moment. We need more information before choosing a side. As long as it's sideways, we do nothing." On Wednesday we got a solid Buy signal and continued on up for the remainder of the week.
Current SunnyBands Signals
We were up by +625.03 this week. Now it's back to normal. The current signal is Long from 07/02/24 at 39,331.85. With price currently at 40,000.90 that's a potential of 669.05 points profit so far...
Analysis
This week we were up by -+625.03 in an exciting week as we had a high of 40,257, closing Friday at 40,000.90. If past events hold we will likely encounter profit taking at the top. On the Weekly, the DMA_H is moving down toward the zero-line which could foretell that movement. But on the Daily it is Gold and getting longer. With these mxed signals it's difficult to tell which way we will go.
For Reports, this week we have Mfgr Survey, Fed speaks, Retail sales, Import prices, Biz inventories, Fed speaks; Housing starts, Building Permits, Industl production, Capacity utilizatiio; Fed Beige Book, Leading economic indicators; more Fed speaks.n/p>
Here's the LINK to my source of data. The next big Fed Speak is July 30 - 31. Again, it's all fear and greed, so it could go either way. Here's a link to this week's critical reports.
I think we could see a further rise in the Dow this week. There is an Attractor overhead at 41,000 that could be reached.
Now it's 31 bars since the ATH We are currently below 40,000, and I think we should see some congestion for a few more days.
The next Fib level on the Monthly chart lies overhead at 41,340 and I do think we will get there, but it's going to take more time. BUT, be careful in here; it could easily go down. Ask me to show my chart to you in TAWS-Daily this week. It's important.
The Blue line on the Monthly is now above the UOB and climbing. The fact that the Orange trendline is still above the Blue says to me that there is further room on the upside.
Chart
Statistics
Created : 07/12/2024 06:02pm@ES was up by 43.25 this week and now is sitting at +5,664.75.
Last Time I Said
"On Wednesday we got a Long Signal as Price closed at the UIB from 5568.75. Price in the after-hours is down 7 points to 5614. That would right now be 45.25 per point. I'm holding in for a week of important reports and the opening of the next Earnings Season. Expect volatility." Holding was the right thing to do as ES made a new ATH this week, but did not close on the high.
Current SunnyBands Signals
A week ago Wednesday we got a Long Signal as Price closed at the UIB from 5568.75. Price is now at 5,667 for a potential 98.75 points of profit.
Analysis
While price is up this week, and even made a new ATH, it did not close on that high. Gold is still on top (DMA) and Slope is highly positive. Yet, we have Red lines on the DMA_Histogram, getting shorter. I'm expecting ES to correct back to the DMA at 5,590 before continuing its climb upwards.
On the Natural Numbers chart we are nmoving back toward the 5,600 level, having pierced the 5,700 level. Once that's resolved I expect further motion to the upside.
Commodities
Chart
Statistics
Created : 07/12/2024 04:31pm@BTC was up by 1160 this week and now is sitting at +57,845.
Last Time I Said
"It looks like it should drop back down to the LOB at 59,286." This week it did just that. And lower!
Current SunnyBands Signals
We are still in a Sell signal, from 69,755 on 06/07/24. With price now at 57,805 that's about 11,950 points of potential profit.
It looks like it should drop back down to the 200-day MAV at 52,693.
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Analysis
On the Monthly chart Price is heading toward the Flat DMA (51,924) with Gold on top but the DMA_H is Red and moving down.
Further, Price is below the 21-Week MAV which doesn't bode well.
Back to the Daily chart. Price is below the 21- and 55-day MAVs and only above the 200-.
We are holding on to the Short trade with 11,950 points of potential profit in it.
Chart
Statistics
Created : 07/12/2024 05:44pm@CL was down by -0.95 this week and now is sitting at +82.21.
Last Time I Said
"Crude is tricky in here, until we break above the Flat DMA with Purple on top, or break below the LOB, which is right where it closed on Friday." And this week it dipped to the DMA and bounced back to the UIB.
Current SunnyBands Signals
On 06/06/24 we got a confirmed SunnyBands Buy signal at 75.15. With price now at 82.55 we have a potential profit of 7.06 points. At a BPV of $1,000 that's even better!
Analysis
The price of gasoline in my neighborhood is now flat again at $4.99./gal, even though the price of Crude is rising. (Two weeks ago it was $5.39) I saw one pump with price in $/litre. That'll make us think it's cheaper. Make the package smaller. Mark (in my Daily TAWS meeting) told me that 1 gallon is 3.7854 Litres. Good to know!
The DMA is Flat at 2.38 degrees (Slope). Red bars are presented on the DMA_H. Price is > all 3 MAVs. I'm expecting it will dip lower for a day or two and then bounce off the DMA again. Contrary to that, the two moves up resulted in Lower Highs. That's a warning. We could easily get into congestion at the DMA.
On the Weekly chart I see that we have been right at the Flat DMA for the last 6 weeks or so rising slightly above it and then reverting back to it.
Chart
Statistics
Created : 07/12/2024 06:03pm@GC was up by 23.0 this week and now is sitting at +2,420.7.
Last Time I Said
>"We were in a SunnyBands Sell signal from 05/22/24 at 2415.7. At the Gray Vertical Line on 06//11/24 at 2326.6 we closed the Short for 89 points potential profit. At $100 per full point, that's a potential $8,910 profits in a month." As of this week we are in a new SunnyBands Buy signal from 07/06/24 at 2,397.70.
Current SunnyBands Signals
We are now in a Buy signal from Friday last week, 07/05/24, at 2,397. With price at 2,411.0 in the after-hours that's about 13 points of potential profit. With a BPV of 100 that's $1,300 in a week.
Analysis
I'm still looking for Gold at 2,500. With an ATH at 2,448 we don't have far to go. Price is above all 3 MAVs with the DMA_H near to crossing the zero-line. Slope is positive, but Red, so it's slowing down. With Purple on top we could easily drop to the DMA at 2,382.15 before resuming a march upward.
Gold is back above 2,400. I stand by the hope of 2,500.
Price is above all 3 MAVs and I think that this week we will touch the UOB, which is currently at 2,446.
Chart
Statistics
Created : 07/12/2024 06:04pm@US was up by 1^04 this week and now is sitting at +119.93750.
Last Time I Said
"You would think that means interest rates are going down. Since they aren't yet, I'm thinking this means that the market is already pricing in a rate cut in the fall." And with US moving up that should mean that interest rates are going down.
Current SunnyBands Signals
We are in a Buy signal from 07/05/24 at 118^26. Price is currently at 119^30 in the after-hours. That's a potential profit of 1^04 points.
When US goes down, the expectation is for Interest Rates to go up. This week and last price has been going upward as it bounced off the DMA on 06/11/24 and kept on climbing. You would think that means interest rates are going down. Since they aren't yet, I'm thinking this means that the market is already pricing in a rate cut in the fall. If it doesn't happen we will be in for a shock in the market.
Looking at the Weekly chart tells me that Price is moving solidly sideways. Right at the Flat DMA. Gold is on top, but Flat.
Stocks
AAPL
Chart
Statistics
Created : 07/12/2024 06:13pmAAPL was up by 4.20 this week and now is sitting at +230.54.
Last Time I Said
"I expect it will hit the Flat DMA at 205 and bounce." That happened over 2 weeks ago and price has continued on up to its current 230.43.
Current SunnyBands Signals
SunnyBands rules have me in a Buy signal on 06/26/24 at 213.25. Price is currently at 230.43 so that's about 17 points of potential profit in about 2 weeks.
Analysis
AAPL is above all 3 MAVs and the 21-day MAV is below the DMA, adding a goal IF it moves downward.
Slope is positive at 31 degrees but has turned Red, indicating the rise has slowed. Compounding that, on the DMA_H we have Red bars getting shorter. This could hint at a downturn being in order. There is an Attractor below at 220 which just happens to be right at the DMA. It beckons, but will it happpen?
On the Weekly it looks like it is just going upward. With it at a new ATH it could enter profit-taking OR it could fly on up with no bounds.
Chart
Statistics
Created : 07/13/2024 01:36pmAMZN was down by -5.51 this week and now is sitting at +194.49.
Last Time I Said
"Price is above all 3 MAVs but is in a painfully sideways channel on the Weekly AND the Daily charts. There is an Attractor at 188.35 that is holding down further price movement upward." The first part of the week continued sideways and then it dropped to the DMA on Thursday.
Current SunnyBands Signals
The most recent SunnyBands signal was Long from 06/04/24 at 179.34. Right now we are in Cash from the Gray Vertical Line on Thursday at 195.05 for a potential 15.71 points profit. As it passed down through the UIB, I elected to close the position.
Analysis
We are in a Cash position at the moment for the retracement to clear. With Gold on top I expect it to go about to that level, possibly then meander around humming before they sing the real tune.
Price is above all 3 MAVs but is now retracing from the ATH 4 days ago. It's standard. That's part of why I want to be in Cash at this juncture. The DMA is Flat at -1.62 degrees.
On the DMA_H it's Gold on top but has Red bars moving downward. They have a way to go before crossing the zero-line, however.
Chart
Statistics
Created : 07/13/2024 01:37pmGOOGL was down by -5.53 this week and now is sitting at +185.07.
Last Time I Said
I should have remembered how often markets go down right after making a new ATH.
Current SunnyBands Signals
We are in a Cash signal now. I liquidated my holdings in GOOGL on Thursday for a nice profit. The SunnyBands rules also have us in Cash now from Thursday's close. I am now waiting for a bounce from the Flat DMA. If we get proof I'll go Long again.
Analysis
GOOGL made another new ATH this week on Wednesday, at 191.75! It definitely ourran the projection! The Daily, Weekly & Monthly all look like it's just onward and upward from here. But first, the pause for the profit takers. It may creep along sideways for a bit first.
The next Earnings Report for Alphabet is July 23, 2024.
Let's take a look at the Monthly. (Bring it up on your computer.) On this one price is above all 3 MAVs and Slope is positive at +77 degrees. To get an idea where up is from a high we need to pull Fib Extensions. Doing that tells me that the next level, at 23.6%) is at 196.77. Currently price is at 185.07. That's a bit of a jump for GOOGL, if it happens. Of course, the recent ATH could lead to profit taking at this level. Beware!
Full disclosure: I took profits on my holdings in GOOGL last week. I'm looking for a bit of a retracement or a move higher than the Fib line before buying back in.
Here's a chart for you! This is my NEW "Boxes in Boxes" indicator. With this I can see Daily, Weekly & Monthly all on one chart. It works IntraDay as well.
Chart
Statistics
Created : 07/13/2024 01:39pmMETA was down by -41.04 this week and now is sitting at +498.87.
Last Time I Said
"We are now still Flat META, but we got up to the UOB this week. BUT, as soon as it got there it turned around on Friday, passed through the UIB and headed for the DMA." We are down past the DMA after the ATH, in the expected profit taking.
Current SunnyBands Signals
I am still Flat META, with price below the Flat DMA. It's too soon to go Short and too soon to go Long.
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Analysis
META went mostly down this week, and then below the DMA. I expect it will do one of two things: either drop to the LIB at 488.34 or bounce off the DMA after some choppy action.
Chart
Created : 07/13/2024 01:45pmNVDA was up by 3.41 this week and now is sitting at +129.24.
Last Time I Said
"We are Flat NVDA now. It dipped below the Flat DMA where it is still holding. Price will go down, and on the SunnyBands signal I'll be a buyer again. Or, it will go up in a show of strength and I'll be a buyer again." And this week NVDA is still in a holding pattern, neither bouncing off the DMA or dropping beneath it.
Current SunnyBands Signals
We are Flat NVDA now. It dipped below the Flat DMA where it is still holding. Price will go down, and on the SunnyBands signal I'll be a buyer again. Or, it will go up in a show of strength and I'll be a buyer again.
Analysis
There was a gappy down move 2 weeks ago taking price beneath the DMA (Flat with Gold on top) and nearly to the LIB. There is an Attractor at 125.57, is acting as support now.
The anticipated move down didn't materialize, or at least did not go farther than the DMA. In fact, right now we are above the DMA slightly, but the direction still looks sideways.
Price is above all 3 MAVs but Slope is Flat at 1.91 degrees. Gold is on top but Flat aand the DMA_H is showing Red bars making progress to the zero-line. This makes me suspect more of a down move cooming.
Chart
Statistics
Created : 07/13/2024 01:46pmTSLA was down by -3.29 this week and now is sitting at +248.23.
Last Time I Said
"With SunnyBands, we are in a Buy position from 05/21/24 at 186.60. The position is not productive with price currently at 182.85. It's a loss of -4.35 points. So far I'm holding onto it. I believe TSLA will reach up and touch the Attractor at 195."
Not only did it do that, it did us one better: it got up to 203!
Current SunnyBands Signals
With SunnyBands, we are in a Buy position from 05/21/24 at 186.60. I still believe in this stock and the companies it represents. Yes, Musk is weird; he's an Aspie like my grandson. But he definitely is a forward thinker. Read "Elon Musk" by Walter Isaacson for more understanding.
Analysis
TSLA has gathered some steam! In a steady move upward price has touched the Attractor at 203. I expect more from it.
The DMA_H shows Gold on Top and rising. We are very near the Linear Regression Channel top. I'm hoping for a breakout!
The DMA is rising with Gold on top. That's a very bullish sign. Slope is at 52+ degrees and climbing.
On the Weekly the news is less promising. Price is at the tope of the range but pulling slowly back. This looks like an area for some sideways to down action.
I'm still holding the Cash position. There is neither enough of a correction or a show of strength for me to step in.
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